I know we have one thread going on "Cloud Gaming" already, but, I wanted to have another conversation on the subject without breaking down the integrity of the topic and "generalness" of that thread. Here I'd like to talk about one thing,...
What will happen if it works like they say it will? What will happen to PC Gaming in particular?
So, let's assume for the sake of this discussion that it Does work like they say. You get top of the line gaming, awesome graphics, and No Lag. It uses limited bandwidth since it's basically just streaming a picture, and from now on you never have to buy a "Top of the Line" computer again. What's going to happen to the rest of the Gaming Industry and what will the affect be on PC Gaming? I have some general conclusions that I would like to share and get some feed-back on.
Firstly, if it truly runs smooth and looks good with no lag, people are going to flock to this en-mass. One connection will come with a controller that plugs into a PC or for those types of games or you can use your standard mouse and key board. Let's not forget this thing does PC games too!!! Dragon Age, Mass Effect 2, etc etc, all here in working order playable as normal with your mouse and keyboard or a controller. You can get games the day they come out without needing a pre-order. No standing in line. No hours of downloading a huge game file and then installing it and hoping your system specs can handle it. It just works.
The first and most obvious effect this will have will be in the next 3 to 5 years as people who would normally be upgrading their PC's to handle the next generation of games Won't be doing this. Why go out and buy a $600 graphics card to run "Crysis 5" when OnLive can do it right on your monitor and it still looks perfect? The answer is most people won't unless the economy makes a drastic upturn. People are hesitant to spend large sums of money especially when given a cheaper option that works just as well. Graphics Card Manufacturers are going to be the first ones to start feeling the pinch followed closely by companies that make CPU's that go faster and faster in their war to stay competitive with one another. Manufacturers who make Monitors will still be golden because PC's will always need bigger and better screens, especially since the Cloud does movies too. It won't be long until "going out to the movies" will be a thing of the past. Movies will release at home the same day they do in a Box Office.
Believe it or not, aside from Military applications, it's the video game industry that has driven our progress in computers in the last 10 years or more. Business tries to take some of the credit, but come on let's face it, we don't need uber processors and graphics cards to do spreadsheets and graphs, we need them to pwn neewbs online.
As these companies loose money due to no new sales aside from when someone's computer breaks, the drive for better and faster hardware will dry up. The only one's who will need this hardware are the companies providing the services for use in their Cloud Servers. The average gamer who just wants to play is playing all the latest games through one of these services, they won't be buying a high end graphics card anymore. The same applies for consoles. Sony, Nintendo, Microsoft, all will eventually start loosing money because people no longer need their hardware to play their games. It's done through the cloud and these companies are forced to license their games to the services to get them out to the players. Even the long standing Nintendo will eventually succumb as this system will catch on even in Japan. People won't buy a new Nintendo system just to play Mario and Zelda unless they are incredibly cheap as 90% of the other titles will all be on one Cloud Service or another. Nintendo too will be forced to adapt and either license all their games or make their own Cloud System to compete.
The next big hit will be to Video Game Stores. Vendors such as Gamestop, EB Games, assorted other toy stores. No one will be buying hard copies of games, period, because they won't have the hardware capable of running them. It will all be distributed online. For those few people who do still have computers capable of keeping up, they'll buy games through digital distributors or on special orders straight from the publisher.
Speaking of Digital Distributors, they get hit next.... (Pay Attention here, Brad, this is you)
For a while at first these systems will start doing better and better (seems to be happening now wouldn't you say?). As demand in stores go down demand in a virtual environment will go up because plenty of people will still want to pay for a copy of a program. Since stores won't carry what they need they are forced to go through Digital systems. These systems will see a drastic increase of business, but, Only for a Limited Time. As games and programs quickly surpass the running requirements of even the "tech savvy" home user, these people won't be able to run the latest and greatest games that are being made. Sadly in a catch 22, as the companies that make the graphics cards are now charging $2000 for a top of the line card, normal people won't be able to afford to keep a "state of the art" system on hand to play games. They too, in a short time (4 or 5 years tops), will be forced to go into the Cloud to keep gaming.
Digital Distribution systems at this point, Must Evolve, if they are going to stay competitive. They will either loose all their games to the Cloud Gaming Servers or they will Become Cloud Gaming Servers themselves. If Impulse and Steam want to remain independent of a system like OnLive they will have to offer the same types of services it does. As such I think that is the most likely evolution of those companies who will want to stay competitive and not be a part of OnLive or license their games to them. The example I give above about "Nintendo" is, I think, the most likely outcome. Nintendo, Sony, X-Box, EA Games, Ubisoft Games, Steam, Impulse, etc etc, all these game companies and services will all offer their own "Cloud Service" or they will be forced to lease their games for use on another companies service.
As we can see, if Cloud Gaming works like they say it does, if it's lag free and plays great, the world of Video Game Entertainment is in for a BIG change. This will have far reaching applications into the industry and could spell Doom for certain aspects of it, or at least how things are now. PC gaming will be particularly hard hit. People will still be playing games on PC, but you won't need a powerful system to do it in relative style. The parts companies and manufacturers will be hard hit early on. I think N'Vidia and ATI will divide up the industry by specializing in working with certain game companies to make their games. EA, Bioware, a few others will go with N'Vidia, the rest with ATI. The common man though won't be able to afford the new "Corporate Server Edition" graphics cards.
What about Piracy? Well, with nothing to copy, Piracy will die out. People won't have files to install from their favorite games, they won't have DvD's to install, all these things are kept on Corporate Servers and streamed to paying, subscribing, customers only.
The only way a "Pirate" will actually get his hands on a game is if he hacks a server somewhere and steals it. There won't be anything to copy and burn and put online. Companies don't care about Pirates, as I guess they shouldn't, but they should care about being able to sell the games they make and the hardware being made to run them on. If this takes off everyone will be forced to adapt or get the hell out of dodge. A lot of smaller companies won't make it through this and that's a fact. I don't think Stardock has much to worry about, Impulse or no Impulse, you make your money with Windows Applications and in the coming years that might be all that keeps you afloat if things go down like this. We have very interesting times ahead, my friends. Very interesting indeed.
Thoughts on the Future of the Industry if Cloud Gaming works?
