That was a reply to someone else.  I'm quite aware of both the difficulties in acquiring the hard to get reserves and the rate at which oil is created.  Which is why I said fuel and containers will be switching over to then less cost prohibitive alternatives when we're down to marginal production levels we can't spare on the nonsense.  I expect pharmaceuticals and high end composits where other materials simply can't compare will be the only things using oil fifty years from now.  We can replace damn near everything with synthetics and agricultural substitutes already, most of them are superior products as well.  They just have a cost factor.

As the oil dwindles the price will skyrocket. If you think that you can maintain the lifestyle you have now it means you better be pretty rich. The division between the haves and the have nots will be greater than ever. Wars will be fought over the remaining oil. I believe the future is grim. They waited too long to realistically  replace oil with alternatives. This could have been done years ago but the greed is overwhelming for those in the oil business and we are the ones who will pay, our children for sure. When oil is at a thousand dollars a barrel what do you think the economy will be like? If gas is over 3 dollars a gallon at 100 dollars a barrel what will it be at a thousand dollars a barrel? 30 or 40 bucks a gallon? How much will it cost you to go back and forth to a job? You think food prices are high now but just wait. The cost of transporting all that Chinese crap to Walmart will be so high that the average person won't be able to afford to shop there much less afford the price of transportation. It's the end of civilization as we know it my friends. The worlds governments have known all this for years but they can't advertise it. If people knew the reality of the situation it would be riots and panics never seen before.

Enjoy yourself, it's later than you think
Enjoy yourself, while you're still in the pink
The years go by, as quickly as a wink
Enjoy yourself, enjoy yourself, it's later than you think

Money will do that. The more they have the more they want. No one to blame but themselves. I pity future generations. They won't have spit.

That's the problem with money - you can never have the ultimate amount.  You can always add more 0's.  If there was a maximum amount you could have, and that wasn't too high, then we'd probably be in a better position.  But numbers can go on forever (unlike earth's resources).

Best regards,
Steven.

Yeah, but we can always use numbers to make it look like things never need to change which will keep all the ostriches happy until it is too late. 

Of course I think we should have been using WAY more nuclear power long ago.  When done right it is very clean and seems to be safe, though i would keep it far from populations anyway since power in power lines basically moves around for free (like 1% losses across the power grid the size of the usa) and I would rather no one be killed if there is an issue.  The only real problem is the extremely radioactive waste produced.  Though the amount of waste is very very small when done right (about a coffee can worth in a year from a typical reactor), it is still some nasty stuff and needs to be stored safely or in some other way disposed of.  Considering all the disasters caused by shipping oil around the impact of nuclear power is WAY lower.  Then we can use the abundant electricity produced to create hydrogen for our cars, which would then exhaust water instead of the sorts of things they do now.  This would leave the worlds oil for use in plastics and other, non-power based, uses.

Money, like any other good, does have diminishing marginal utility.

Oil is replaced, in totality, long before a thousand dollars a barrel.  The reason, and it's the sole reason, that we use oil is because it's cheap.  Even the so called irreplaceable products like plastic have already been replaced.  We know how to make oil itself.  It's just more expensive.  At a thousand dollars a barrel, there would be new billionaires popping up as they made 10-1 returns off an investment into algae tanks.

The problem is that it's not just about the money, it's mainly about energy itself. 

Surely we know how to make sythetic oil, but the proces COSTS energy, and if it costs more than it gives back, it's no energy source.

Money can be used to all sorts of trick - you can make them out of thin air in the form of bonds, derivatives, or loans. 

However, you can't loan energy, you can't say "I will produce today, and pay the cost next year".

We are too much used to think about costs just in terms of money. However, there is energy cost associated with most actions we take - baking a pizza, driving to work, turning on light, etc. Until now, the cost of energy was marginal, so these were not taken into account, but that time is over.

Globalization will have to be rollbacked - hauling trinkets in ships around the globe just to exploit slave labor in Asia won't be profitable anymore. Production will have to be localized, and energy-efficient.

Most importantly, the obsolete economic system that rewards consumption will have to be scrapped. Conservation must be rewarded instead.

So long as those in power remain in power things will not change. The system we have created is archaic. The Founding Fathers never intended this. Were they alive today they'd all to a one incite the people to rebellion. It won't be long before what is happening in the Middle East spreads even further. Ten to one says Uncle Sam will be rolling out the tanks to quell an uprising. Inevitable given present circumstances.

Syntehtic oil is not a long-term answer.  It's expensive, and as you said it's not efficient.  however, when you have an excess of one resource, an ability to convert, and a demand- you do what you must.

Ultimattely- we're not going to solve this issue without nuclear fusion- which is what we should be spending our defense dollars on.

Fusion technology probably exists but like most applications that could help solve our energy woes it is most likely being suppressed. Speculation on my part but ...... back in the mid fifties an engineer developed a carburetor that could get 100 miles to the gallon no lie. The Big Three bought him off for about a million bucks because they did not want something that could actually save money, gas or anything else. What stops them from suppressing fusion technologies? 

The average person doesn't even begin to understand the problem: They think that the leaders of the west will pull some "policy" from their sleeves and the problem will be solved.

The truth is that consumers never payed the true energy price (except for the small negligible percentage coming from renewable resources).

What you pay is the cost to extract, move and reprocess oil, gas and coal. It was never the cost to "create" or gather the energy they represent (MJ? kCal?) per unit resource. This is why we don't have hydrogen cars yet. The tech exists but what about packing that energy into the hydrogen fuel?

It gets worse:

long before you consider energy as the thing that fuels the economy, think about its strategic value. Fossil fuel are essential in maintaining standing armies; without it there is no military might. Nations can afford to have their populations in the brink of rebellion due to starvation, however losing military might and control is a big no no. So, long before the mini hydrogen car is given to the average consumer, you must meet the hydrogen powered military equipment.

In any case, the people driving these: http://www.topspeed.com/cars/car-news/golden-bentley-continental-gt-spotted-in-dubai-ar74743.html will not be happy. The fact is that kingdoms and democracies will fall or change hands because there will be a huge shift of power. And all the usual excuses for starting war will come up again: religion, race, color, political ideals.

At the end of the day, someone else will be driving that golden bentley in 2100 with fossil fuel.

Enjoy the smell of your car's exhaust, while you can, cause it will be a rich person's privilege at 2100 along with natural water, vegetables and meat, cause these are going out as well.

Very interesting times indeed.. damn that Chinese curse..

Context, anyone?  While you're on the subject for no reason anyway, mind telling Congress that?  We're getting tired of paying for this ethanol program.

Pretty much everything is upon us...question is...what are we going to do about it? Expecting congress to so something about this is like asking the fox to guard the hen house. The people in Egypt had the right idea...now if only the people here would learn from that. I'd be willing to bet that someone somewhere has a great idea that would work...but as long as our government won't reap immediate profits from it nothing will happen until it's almost to late...if we're lucky.

And actually there are solutions already...but people are so brain washed into thinking certain things are so bad we can't possibly consider them again nothing will happen. Hemp anyone? And I'm not saying it the end all solution...but it should at least be considered.

Well, what we're running out of is CHEAP oil.

Of course oil isn't remotely finite either, though I suppose that depends on if you consider synthetics and replacements 'oil'.  In the context you seem to be using I would imagine not.

Just more fear mongering from the people who are actually scared of this 'issue'.  As you said earlier $4 a gallon gas isn't really the problem people want to think it is.  Hell we already had $4 a gallon gas a couple years ago, though I suppose the national average didn't get that high, but it certainly was over $4 in several parts of the country.

What happened?  Oh yeah, absolutely #$%#ing nothing.  Though the push to more efficient cars was probably assisted by all the bleating of the peak oil crowd.  Not a bad thing really, but meh, not really worth getting so worried about anyway.  More just good business practice for the car makers to seize on public sentiment and start pushing products which would sell better.  Again, not a bad thing for anyone in this case, just as GW fear mongering is productive when it gets more people thinking about alternative energy, and getting more funding for those technologies.  Even if the fear mongering part is utter bull#%#.

Well, that's where you are wrong. More expensive gas maybe just a nuisance for you, because you have reserves and you'll just cut spending. First aspect of it that when everyone is forced to cut back spending because of energy prices, we will have another round of recession (since we still have that obsolete consumption-rewarding system).

However, in poorer parts of the world higher energy mean food costs increase over a point they cannot survive any longer - we are talking about people who have barely enough to eat (and I don't mean 3000kcal/day eating like in America or so, I mean really a bare minimum), so these people are pushed to revolt, and we can see it spread over the Middle East and Northern Africa. Once pro-American regimes in key states (like Saudi Arabia) topple, expect oil to sharply rise, because the new forces in power won't be so enthusiastic to exchange precious resources for overpriced trinkets, like Saudi king, for example.

Basically, we see increasing tension in the system due to the shrinking per-capita energy allowance globally. While the process is gradual, it can "snap" in a similar way a steel rod snaps under increasing pressure - suddenly and violently. Greatest problem is that western government, so called "elites" from mostly economic circles, and with them majority of western public live in total denial of these problems.

The real tragedy is the fact that the tax incentives for pursuing new renewable sources of energy are not there at all. As previously mentioned the price at the pump is heavily subsidized but that does not include the large tax incentives that oil companies enjoy. We are enjoying a golden age of cheap energy but we are squandering it instead of investing in it for the future. 

Oil companies pay higher than average taxes, there is no tax incentive.  There is no subsidy either, when people talk about the real cost of oil, they're being rhetorical ass wipes and referring to how much it would take to create it, not a government program.

If you want to see something that's subsidized, you need to look no further than all the bullshit renewable energy programs, like ethanol(lets all slit our wrists and get it over with faster!) or the absurdly inefficient wind farm T. Boon Pickens lost his shirt on.  GE alone gets billions in subsidies every year for their various money whoring efforts, all at our expense.

The tech is already there, fossil fuels are just cheaper.

Oh really? So there are no tax incentive, no tax rebates?

http://www.encapgroup.com/taxbenefits/

Trust me, I have filled out the forms. Yes they pay more taxes but to actually get the ball rolling (drill the well) they get some tax incentives. What I am trying to say is to provide the same for many of these start up companies that want to pursue alternative sources.

You are right though, fossil fuels are cheaper but they won't last forever. Since the energy demands from China and India are on the rise, it is time we start acting instead of talking about the elephant in the room. It is not a good policy to have all your eggs in one basket

Only in a world gone insane would it be a tax incentive to spend a million dollars, get a million back, and not pay taxes on your profit of zero.

Since the world has gone insane, I'll give you that anyway.  So somewhere in the mix of massively high taxes, the cost of crude is over 40% tax for those of you living in lala land, the US government gives a few bucks off here and there for something that would normally count as depreciable tax modifiers anyway as a standard expense for a semi permanent purchase or a straight up profit reduction as an operational cost.

That's much better than making more money mixing diesel in with your pulp to burn it for power than you do off the actual sawmill output!

I am honestly not trying to get into a tax debate. I am not saying we are not taxing oil companies enough I am saying the same opportuinites are not there for alternative energy.

Take for example the intangible drilling costs which will give the operator a deduction on the intangible drilling costs. If the well is a success or failure it doesn't matter. But for a renewable energy project it is not an option as 

It should be noted this tax credit does not support energy generation projects, but rather the manufacturing facilities that support generation and conservation.

Here is some more tax info about oil and gas

Basically if T. Boone Pickens is losing his shirt over the Windmill farm it should be a tax deduction just as if he drilled a dry hole. 

The tax incentive system for oil and gas is great for business so we should extend it to other options for energy. 

That is all I am trying to say. 

Yeah, I'm sorry, I forgot about all the revolts that took place a couple years ago when gas prices spiked...

Pinning the issues in the ME on gas is ridiculous, not to say that pressure on their economies generally is not an issue.  But in any case, if the system in the 3rd world is unsustainable what is the solution?  Poor standards of living have been in existence there for centuries, more gas, less gas doesn't matter.  It's not even as though the transport of foodstuffs is really an issue either, at least not for Africa, because we (meaning the West) have been dumping food on them for decades, to no avail.  Now we can agree that the problem is their despotic governments, and we can agree that the west has tacitly (and occasionally overtly) supported those governments, and that that is a bad thing.

But that doesn't get us past the part where more expensive gas really means much of anything for those countries.  Sad to say, they are screwed either way.  And that's still entirely beside the point that the notion of peak oil is nonsense, at least in the manner it is commonly used to attempt to scare people.

Now, I'm not some oil company shill, I do strongly believe that we (again as the west, but the US in particular) need to diversify our energy portfolio, and in particular move away from importing oil from those same ME countries you are concerned about.  We need renewable energy solutions, we need new/more nuclear plants, we need to begin the transition away from ICEs being the standard.

But, to think that regime change in SA would mean no more oil is just bizarre.  It's not as though their oil has any particular value to them, since they lack the industry to refine it into anything useful.  They need to sell it, if not to the US then to China or Europe, or Russia.  Who else is there?  But sure, it would be disruptive, it would drive the speculators crazy (and lets not ignore their role in driving the price of oil up), so we need to find alternatives to ME oil, but not because of peak oil fear mongering, because it is the smart thing to do.

The simple fact of the matter is that the middle class is disappearing and the gap between the rich and the poor continues to grow. Increasing oil prices have a widespread effect on the prices of the necessities needed to live in our society. As the economic situation worsens for the majority in America it is completely reasonable to speculate that an increase in oil prices may spark violent revolts. If oil prices were the solitary problem I would agree with you that any spikes in the price would lead to mumbling and groaning like we saw a couple years ago and nothing more, but considering the context they may occur in you would be naive to think nothing would come of it. Who cares about the countries exporting it and what they may or may not want for it, it's more important to consider the fact that we may have nothing to give.

I'm already stretched to the limit, and granted I'm in college, but I expect the cost of living to increase enough that landing a job that requires an education will barely improve my standard of living compared to what it was when I was working for low wages without a degree. At this point in time oil prices are a catalyst rather than a major source of the potential disorder.

The funny thing (funny interesting not funny ha-ha) about all the ideology stuff - the richer people also benefit greatly from having fewer people with virtually nothing.

Best regards,
Steven.

[quote]Basically if T. Boone Pickens is losing his shirt over the Windmill farm it should be a tax deduction just as if he drilled a dry hole. [quote]

No argument from me, but this is capital gains nonsense.  Instead of treating it as income they've gone batshit insane.

T.Boone Pickens wont be able to break the max deductible, so if he didn't have enough capital gains to offset his losses he is indeed getting the shaft.  On the other hand, he pays a lot less for the shaft than it actually costs him.  Windmill farmers are currently sitting on a tax credit that nets them around 20% of what it costs you to buy their electricity.  Even if math isn't your strong point, this should obviously be a problem.

We've been spending billions propping up a joke of an industry that will only cause us grief, and the result of it is that less than 2% of our power comes from wind.  Which is a good thing, since wind comes and goes, requiring the rapid start and stop provided by fuel powered generators to fill the gaps.  That would be the facet they don't mention when talking about that massive wind farm off the coast of the Netherlands, the fact that they burn more diesel than ever to keep it stabilized.

Did you know the US led the world in wind power?  It was back in the 80's when the crack brained idea first took hold in government.  After having built billions in wind farms, the subsidies(which were even higher than they are today) ended and they all went derelict.  Now we repeat the fuckup again with these wonderful incentives to invest that you don't seem to know exist...

My theory, and it's been holding up extremely well in recent years, is that GE owns the Democratic party.  They make the shitty CFL bulbs and windmills we're being screwed with, and they run that half ass mouth piece of a news outlet foisting the bullshit tales of viability as well.