Kamamura_CZ Kamamura_CZ

Peak oil is upon us!

Peak oil is upon us!

How do you personally feel about our future?

Recently, a Wiki Leaks cable indicated fears that Saudi oil supplies are overestimated by as much as 40 percent.

Global production is on a plateau for some 5 years, and most large, cheapest oil fields are in decline.

Many countries, like China, Indonesia, and notably Egypt stopped exporting oil and started importing.

Jeff Rubin sees the dwindling oil supplies in Egypt as a major reason for the current political changes - the country could not afford to subsidize food anymore, and the regime collapsed.

What are your thoughts?



434,416 views 159 replies
Reply #151 Top

Quoting shadowtongue, reply 150


I'm not going to argue the length of time which nuclear energy could run for, but I think you're rather vastly overstating this.  And in any case, it's not that easy to ship nuclear energy around, so while it may be a solution for the developed nations which have enough of a population density as well as infrastructure, it is hardly a solution to the 'earth's energy needs'.

True. But most of the energy is used in developed areas anyway. As far as overstating it. Nobody has any idea how much uranium we have available. The reason being there's been essentially NO exploration for it since the 70's. Truth is people only look for stuff when they need it and the world is and has been glutted with more uranium that it could use for the last 40 years and only now is interest in finding new sources coming to life AT ALL. Here is an interesting article about it that may be slightly biased. I base my prediction on what has happened with the search for fossil fuels.

Quoting shadowtongue, reply 150


In our mind, sure, ready to be developed?  Again, that's a bit of an overstatement I fear.  Even if not, there are still significant hurdles to overcome simply in terms of material security to be able to proceed with any kind of large scale plan.  The science may be ready, but the world simply isn't.  Unless you like the ideas of dirty bombs becoming a dime a dozen.

 

Look up molten salt reactors. They are everything we wish current nuclear reactors are! Safe, highly efficient, produce minimal waste, better yet they had working models in the 60s. The only reason we're using the crappy light water reactors we are today is that the waste from LWRs can be used to make nuclear weapons and the molten salt reactors can't. I repeat. This technology CANNOT be used to make nuclear weapons and has NO CHANCE of a catastrophic meltdown. We had this technology 50 years ago and shelved it because of a stupid cold war with Russia. 

Reply #152 Top

Time passes, we don't do anything meaningful.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9560#more

Meanwhile, conventional production starts to decline. The unconventional production cannot keep up with the decline, the EROI plummets. The America lies to itself about the "oil boom" in Dakota, but if you look at the numbers, these are only crumbs we are trying to desperately pick, and the hydraulic fracturing has sources that dry up quickly - short burst in production, then sharp decline.

Energy shortages means the Long Recession is ahead, perhaps even worse.

This crisis ain't ending anytime soon - so called "debt crisis" is just financial expression of the discrepancy between our rosy expectations and the sober reality.

In the 90s, studies (by economists, of course) predicted we should be getting 120 million barrels per day from the ground by now. Ain't gonna happen.

Reply #153 Top

So how has it gone with peakoil?   It feels like it isn't real when nothing has changed. No panic, no shortage of products. Just slightly more expensive fuel.

Reply #154 Top

Well, even if you have cancer, you don't have to panic - especially if you are not aware of its seveity and impact.

 

Peak oil is one of the major causes of the factual bankruptcy of the US financial sector in 2008, and subsequent global economic crisis that grows more severe every year. 

 

Recent contribution from industry veteran - former BP geologist:

 

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/dec/23/british-petroleum-geologist-peak-oil-break-economy-recession

Reply #155 Top

Talk about a delayed answer  :P

 

I didn't know peak oil was the cause of that.

But no one talks about peak oil. Climate Change/Global Warming on the other hand is alot more popular. One would think that if peak oil was that important, then the worldleaders would talk about it and try to do something about it.

 

When will the west feel the effects of peak oil ?   Cause that seem the only way to get people to understand this issue.

Reply #156 Top

But the west is already feeling the effects of peak oil in the form of so called "stagflation". The industrial and living inputs are rising in costs, so people spend less, but the prices do not go down, because everything becomes more difficult and more expensive to manufacture. Just look at the prices of basic commodities like grain, rice (especially rice), steel, etc. 

 

The leaders prefer to call it "financial crisis", because everyone feels that finances are human invention (at first it was a sort of information system that should have helped with rational resource distribution, until those who should have guarded it broke it down), therefore people think that it is easier to fix - just change a few parameters, and we are good. On the other hand, once you start calling it "resource shortage crisis", much more panic will arise. 

 

But it is exactly that - just look on the political and economic changes of the last decade. European social states are being dismantled for rabid "snatch what you can" volatile environments hostile to long-term planning. Trust is going down, expectations are bleak, poverty is on the rise. One eighth of Americans are on food stamps, unemployment is at all time high (but because long term unemployed and prisoners are not counted, it does not look so bad). In Britain, families are starving. Here in Czech, I see homeless people dying on the streets - it was never this bad before. 

 

Welfare program and social care programs are being scrapped, with my generation facing the thread of old age in poverty. 

 

The planning periods are getting shorter, fast, short term gain is preferred to long term investment. International tension is rising too, with what seems to be a new round of cold war in race to snatch the remaining resources. Proxy wars on the fringes of the big empires (China, USA, Russia) are fought non-stop (Iraq, Lybia, Syria, Sudan). Polar exploitation is seriously considered, and desperate method of resource mining are introduced (shale gas hydraulic fracturing). 

Reply #157 Top

Quoting Kamamura_CZ, reply 154
Recent contribution from industry veteran - former BP geologist:

That's a good article.

But there's always coal...

And oil can be created from coal.

Oil can even be created from thin air if there's a cheap enough power source available.

 

Reply #158 Top

Quoting Kamamura_CZ, reply 156

But the west is already feeling the effects of peak oil in the form of so called "stagflation". The industrial and living inputs are rising in costs, so people spend less, but the prices do not go down, because everything becomes more difficult and more expensive to manufacture. Just look at the prices of basic commodities like grain, rice (especially rice), steel, etc. 

 

The leaders prefer to call it "financial crisis", because everyone feels that finances are human invention (at first it was a sort of information system that should have helped with rational resource distribution, until those who should have guarded it broke it down), therefore people think that it is easier to fix - just change a few parameters, and we are good. On the other hand, once you start calling it "resource shortage crisis", much more panic will arise.

 

There have been small pricehikes on food but no large ones. But a newspaper had this article about storeowners of ICA MAXI making millions (Swedish Kronor) which implies that those stores set the prices high to get more money.

 

 

 

Quoting Kamamura_CZ, reply 156

But it is exactly that - just look on the political and economic changes of the last decade. European social states are being dismantled for rabid "snatch what you can" volatile environments hostile to long-term planning. Trust is going down, expectations are bleak, poverty is on the rise. One eighth of Americans are on food stamps, unemployment is at all time high (but because long term unemployed and prisoners are not counted, it does not look so bad). In Britain, families are starving. Here in Czech, I see homeless people dying on the streets - it was never this bad before.

What kind of families ?   You really mean families of mum, dad, kid?   You don't mean illegal immigrants now?

 

 

Quoting Kamamura_CZ, reply 156

But it is exactly that - just look on the political and economic changes of the last decade. European social states are being dismantled for rabid "snatch what you can" volatile environments hostile to long-term planning. Trust is going down, expectations are bleak, poverty is on the rise. One eighth of Americans are on food stamps, unemployment is at all time high (but because long term unemployed and prisoners are not counted, it does not look so bad). In Britain, families are starving. Here in Czech, I see homeless people dying on the streets - it was never this bad before. 

 

Welfare program and social care programs are being scrapped, with my generation facing the thread of old age in poverty. 

 

The planning periods are getting shorter, fast, short term gain is preferred to long term investment. International tension is rising too, with what seems to be a new round of cold war in race to snatch the remaining resources. Proxy wars on the fringes of the big empires (China, USA, Russia) are fought non-stop (Iraq, Lybia, Syria, Sudan). Polar exploitation is seriously considered, and desperate method of resource mining are introduced (shale gas hydraulic fracturing). 

 

I've read about this fracking. It seems Europe goes for renewables while US and some others go for fracking. If that is true, then why doesn't the US go for renewable too?   Wind, water and sun?   Some solarpanels in Las Vegas desert would work?

Reply #159 Top

Quoting Campaigner, reply 158
It seems Europe goes for renewables while US and some others go for fracking. If that is true, then why doesn't the US go for renewable too?

Because of this:

http://www.businessinsider.com/europes-soaring-energy-prices-2013-11

 

The U.S. does not want to pay the price, and doesn't really need to because they have plenty of coal, gas and oil to keep them going for a very long time ...