The suicide bombing was unrelated. It was probably a member of the "People's Mujahedeen", a Sunni Arab terrorist group fighting the Shiite government of Iran. Their cause is valid, but their methods are not. They just used the opportunity to add their bit. (They certainly want reform.)

But don't confuse them with the protesters. Iran is not like Iraq, where both sides resort to terrorist tactics. Those attacks on Shia sites happen a lot in Iran, the media rarely comment.

Mousavi is "prepared for Martyrdom" because he has gone too far. He knows he will likely die if he loses. He is right. He would be a martyr. He would indeed die for a good cause. I think it is time we all recognise Mousavi, the opportunist, for the hero he has undoubtedly become in the last two weeks. When this ends and he wins, I think he should get the Nobel Peace Price. This revolution, if it becomes one, will ultimately create peace in the middle east.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2009/06/090621_ag_street_clashes.shtml

Police are fleeing.

If I saw that kind of mob bearing down on me, I'd tail it too!

Pfft, no doubt; I'd be like, "Okay guys, you know...I've been thinking about a career change and now seems the best time...."

>_>

I found this tweet coming from a supporter of Ahmadinejad's power grab:

http://twitter.com/antifacista203

Apparently the supporters of the Holocaust-denying dwarf think of themselves as "anti-fascists".

Iran coup is Bushs plan. Obama shuts up because he knows.

I'm thinking the guy is American, not Iranian.

Anyway, in the mean time I have heard reports (and seen a possible video) that the Basij (Khameini's bully militia) headquarters has been blown up. Apparently somebody set fire to the gas pipe.

Foreign governments controlling TWITTER! See how disgusting they act against us and free speech!

Honestly, this habit of using a supposedly censored medium to announce that one is being censored is an American truther habit. That guy is American!

Then there is this:

http://iranelection2009.com/archive/2009/06/23/rafsanjani-poised-outflank-supreme-leader-khamenei

Rafsanjani Poised to Outflank Supreme Leader Khamenei

A source familiar with the thinking of decision-makers in state agencies that have strong ties to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said there is a sense among hardliners that a shoe is about to drop. Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani -- Iran’s savviest political operator and an arch-enemy of Ayatollah Khamenei’s -- has kept out of the public spotlight since the rigged June 12 presidential election triggered the political crisis. The widespread belief is that Rafsanjani has been in the holy city of Qom, working to assemble a religious and political coalition to topple the supreme leader and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

This is being hailed as a success for the protesters. But I don't believe it is really good news. It's simply a way for the regime to replace two unwanted leaders and survive. Two months later we'll be back where we were.

While this is good:

Ayatollah Khamenei now has a very big image problem among influential Shi’a clergymen. Over the course of the political crisis, stretching back to the days leading up to the election, Rafsanjani has succeeded in knocking the supreme leader off his pedestal by revealing Ayatollah Khamenei to be a political partisan rather than an above-the-fray spiritual leader.

But this is bad:

Meanwhile, the Al-Arabiya satellite television news channel reported that a "high-ranking" source in Qom confirmed that Rafsanjani has garnered enough support to remove Ayatollah Khamenei, but an announcement is being delayed amid differences on what or who should replace the supreme leader. Some top clerics reportedly want to maintain the post of supreme leader, albeit with someone other than Ayatollah Khamenei occupying the post, while others support the collective leadership approach.

And this is funny:

To a certain degree, hardliners now find themselves caught in a cycle of doom: they must crack down on protesters if they are to have any chance of retaining power, but doing so only causes more and more clerics to align against them.

Naw, that's more of a "generic nutcase" habit. I wonder if he has a tin-foil hat, too.

No, I think it's distinctly American, or rather western (and originally American). The ability to use very modern technology, like the Internet, to complain about that technology being censored is a habit specific to nutters resident in very rich and very free countries. (It also happens a lot that people use their DSL connection to complain about their poverty.)

The tin-foil hat people are those who actually avoid using media that they believe are under government control. They are nutters too, but they are not hypocritical little egoists.

Why did western countries ever recognise the mullah regime in Iran???

Apparently Obama bluntly condemned the crackdown in Iran recently, instead of merely being "troubled". Even brought up the allegations of election fraud. About damn time.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Obama+condemns+Iranian+crackdown+protests/1724807/story.html

And just a few days ago Obama's apologists told us that this would be a mistake and that Obama is smart enough to avoid it.

Well, he finally made the mistake. Good for him.

He's even smarter than that.

Turns out the Iranian government didn't know quite as much about their own country that claimed to know about "Palestine".

There are now four distinct movements or groups in Iran. This is not just "people against mullahs".

Group 1: "Ayatollah" Khomeini, "president" Ahmadinejad, the revolutionary guards, the Basij militia, and a few violent ayatollahs, basically the secular part of the current regime. This group has been trying to take power away from "the mullahs" and reserve it for Khameini himself and the revolutionary guards since 2005. They are strictly against any reforms.

Group 2: Former president ayatollah Rafsanjani (Iran's Goebells), most other mullahs, the clerical part of the current regime. They have been losing power to group 1 since 2005 and are trying to use the current events to get it back. They are willing to reform the system to preserve it. Some are genuinely interested in a reformed system.

Group 3: Mousavi and his supporters. They want reform, Mousavi himself within, some without the current system. They are the "death to Ahmdinejad" crowd.

Group 4: The rebels. They want the system itself to go away. They are the "death to Khameini" crowd.

Group 3 can win with the help of group 2.

Group 4 can win with the help of group 3, but only if they don't rely on group 2.

Group 1 can win with the help of group 4, namely if group 1 wins the street battles.

Group 2 will very likely win, no matter what. If not, they will wait untuil group 1 make another mistake, unless group 1 find a good tool against group 2.

Things to look out for:

1. Expect more street violence (and even less news reports about it). Expect more harsh words coming from group 1 designed to keep the violence (against the protesters) going.

2. Expect purges among the clerics. Group 1 has to get rid of group 2.

I am hearing ever more reports of militia men speaking with Arabic accents.

I am wondering why the regime uses Arab militias (Hizbullah and Hamas, no doubt).

Are they running out of Iranian security personnel?

Do they have reason to believe that they cannot use Iranian security personnel?

Or did those groups simply decide to help the regime with the regime tolerating the help?

From Twitter:

Pls if u do nothing else ,make sure George Galloway know that the millions of us hre think he is a fool

Fascist MP George Galloway didn't suddenly change sides like so many Hizbullah supporters of 2006. I always admired his certain type of honesty.

I think they don't believe they can rely on the army to shoot Iranians on command.

From Tweets quoted by Andrew Sullivan:

Rumors say 3 Basij captured and being held in basements of homes. They only speak Arabic.

Seems like the Iranian government really is running out of locals. But will their supply of Arabs outlast the protesters' supply of Iranians? It probably will but I think the regime can forget about appearing to represent the Iranian people or even any form of Iran now.

In spectacular case of denail, Sup Ldr blames US, Israel for protests and Neda killing. not sure who believes him in Iran

Nobody in Iran will believe this. It's for external consumption.

I also think that the recent many terror attacks in Iraq are a part of this. The Iranian regime has more support among Arabs than even among Iranian extremists.

Doesn't seem very wise of them to be playing to the cameras while their own house burns down around them.

Things have quieted down a bit due to government-sponsored violence.

Arab militiamen have the protests "under control".

I don't expect a special crisis UN meeting to discuss the "disproportionate violence", since after intensive research it turned out that the victims were not Arab terrorists and the Iranian government isn't Jewish.

But the Iranian government have had to give up their pretence of representing the Iranian people. Everybody now knows that they represent only themselves. And again, as in 1979, we will have to ask ourselves why on earth we, the west, even recognise that government.

It's too bad that Obama is the President. He still wants to talk to them. About what??? Whether they will reconsider their nuclear weapons program now that they have local Iranians to murder?

You know, before I even laid eyes on this thread I knew the situation was bad, but I hadn't realized that it was REALLY bad. And now I've gone on to follow threads like this (warning: VERY disturbing images in there)... and I'm thoroughly shaken. I have no idea how accurate that all is, but I can't help but feel... chilled, looking at that stuff. My god, those bastards are brutal sons of bitches.

I hope the Iranians aren't going to let these animals get away with this.

It is accurate.

The unconfirmed rumours I heard are worse.

Note that the Iranian on that thread also notes Ahmadinejad's party affiliation as "ape", like I did.

Note this occurence of the term: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/11/ahmadinejad-toy-monkey

Ok, here is some news.

If you are into confirmed facts, treat this as made up by me. I obviously cannot give sources.

You might have heard unconfirmed reports about former Iranian president Ayatollah Rafsanjani trying to muster support among the "Assembly of Experts" (the Iranian upper house, a parliament of self-proclaimed clerics) to remove the "Supreme Leader" Khameini in Qom, the religious capital of Iran. This has been going on for weeks.

http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/iranincrisis/2009/06/200962355233501334.html

Rafsanjani is absolutely not a reformer and appears more as an Iranian Goering. Hoping for him to do something useful is probably not a good idea. But this begs the question why he isn't doing anything when it is clear that Khamaini and his allies in the revolutionary guard have been taking over the state ever since the 90s and certainly since 2005. The revolutionary guard have been taking over government agencies and private businesses for years and are now effectively in control of everything.

Election fraud is certainly not in the interest of the regime. But it is in the interest of the "winner" of the "elections" and his allies. Goering/Rafsanjani would certainly try to strike back. So why all the talk and no action?

Turns out the reason Rafsanjani doesn't do anything is because he can't. The entire "Assembly of Experts" can't do anything. They have no factual power. Legally, according to the Iranian "constitution", the assembly has the power to remove the "Supreme Leader" from office. But for some time now the assembly didn't have the means to do so.

The Iranian army is traditionally neutral. And the revolutionary guards are on Ahmadinejad's (and hence Khameini's) side, as are the Basij militia (who really only care about following whomever is willing to let them be as violent as they wish). Ahmadinejad's padnering to Arab extremists has also resulted in massive support for his "cause" among Arab terrorist groups like Hizbullah and Hamas, which are used against protesters in Iran now.

So now it's down to protesters vs Khameini. The "Assembly of Experts" are now out of it. They will come back, trying to preserve the regime, once the protesters have somehow beaten the guards.

Kazakhstan stands firm on the west's and Israel's side.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1246296535221&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

"Once the protesters have somehow beaten the guards"? That's awful optimistic. I wish the best for the Iranian people, but knowing the kind of brutality they're up against and the kind of disruption the regime is targeting at them... it almost seems like too much to hope for. Sure, they pulled it off 30 years, but I have trouble seeing that happening without the military stepping in to assist.

I don't know. I'm still pretty shaken from those pictures and videos. I don't think I've been this unsettled since I read "Shake Hands With the Devil"... never did manage to finish the book.

It's tough to be optimistic now that I hear the protests have stopped, the streets are flooded with militia, and no doubt hasty and illegitimate trials are being arranged for the arrested protesters. It all seems to be losing momentum, not gaining it.

I wasn't optimistic, just the opposite. The protesters couldn't get the help from the assembly that everyone (except them) was waiting for.

The strikes might get the regime. The protests obviously wouldn't. The protests just allowed the protesters to show each other (and the world) how many they are.

Protests worked against the Shah because he at some point decided not to shoot at his own people. We cannot expect such behaviour from the likes of Khameini.

Protests never worked as a revolution except where the regime was moral enough to give in. It worked in British India and even East-Germany. But it wouldn't have worked in Nazi Germany and most likely won't work in Iran either.