"Dan - You are new to the blog so I will give you one chance : Do NOT post blocks of text longer than the original article. Got something to say? Make a summary statement and then link to either your own blog post response or to whatever source you are citing."

I'm sorry if I broke a rule of yours, not intended. I was instructed to back up what I stated, and I did. I'll attempt to keep it brief. For the record the longest post was just that my longest. Sorry if it was a bit too much of a read. I can butt out if you'd like. No probs. Just trying to add something.

"I don't really care very much who literally manufactures what I create."

I'm sorry to have offended you with some comments about how things are made. Please excuse my ignorance I thought all viewpoints were tolerated. It was you that did ask for some credibility to my initial statements. I'll no longer add to the list of hypocritical replies in my own defense.

"Sorry but you're wrong on this. Dell only uses USA motherboards. I worked as an IT specialist for quite some time and "all" the company computers (150-200 units) were Dells. And every motherboard in them was made in the USA as are all their memory chips. They found to high a failure rate in boards made overseas."

High end stuff is made in the state during it initial run, then as production goes high rate it is done wherever it can be done cheapest.

Sorry but you're wrong on this. Dell only uses USA motherboards. I worked as an IT specialist for quite some time and "all" the company computers (150-200 units) were Dells. And every motherboard in them was made in the USA as are all their memory chips. They found to high a failure rate in boards made overseas.

"You're wrong on this too. Most H/D's are made either in the Philippines,Malasya or Hungary. There are a few made in Singapore but again they have a higher failure rate than the others."

Right, ok well China or the Philippines, Malasya, Hungary, are all mutually exclusive to the United States. I franky don't know where every item manufactured in existence, is made, but I do know that the harddrive in this comp, from Dell, was "MADE IN CHINA" If you'd like to debate that fine, as for other harddrives I've purchased and dealt with, it's been since 1998 that I've come accross a harddrive that wasn't made in China. Not saying they all are but if you can make any product in China for the cheapest labor which is in China, then you eventually will to stay competitive if you plan on making millions of them.

"Same with the CPU's "all" CPU's (Intel and AMD) are made here in the US. Not China." Incorrect.

The DX4 processor which is from the 1990's that I see daily in the building of the product I work with, have come from China.

www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/manufacturing/manufacturing_at_a_glance.pdf
news.com.com/Intels+manufacturing+cost+40+per+chip/2100-1006_3-5862922.html

Here's some information from Intel on where they make stuff. I'll concede that the exact locations might not be China, if you'll concede a large portion of manufacturing is outsourced, sucked from the United States by the lower cost per unit to produce. Meaning we don't produce the bulk here. Neither does Europe to be sure, and to keep the information relevant.

As for Dell...

news.com.com/Dell+bucks+the+notebook-outsourcing+trend/2100-1005_3-6134256.html

"The company does all the final assembly of its laptops at its own facilities in Malaysia and Ireland, said Glenn Neland, senior vice president for procurement at the PC maker. It takes partially assembled systems from its manufacturing partners--the "carcass," as Neland puts it--and sends them to its own facilities to add the finishing touches, such as the installation of the processor, hard drive, memory and other system components."

"Dell assembles a significant portion of its notebooks in its own facilities, just like it has done for years with desktop PCs."

Notice that neither indicate that they do all of it inside the United States because they do not. My point yet again, everything is connected. Without any part of the process of a product, concept, design, manufacture, testing, marketing, packing, shipping, service, there is no delivery and execution of a product, no solution to a customers problem.

Well Christmas is coming everybody and it is a great year to buy some new electronics, especially a computer. I hope you all get something good in your stocking.

I'm sorry to have offended you with some comments about how things are made. Please excuse my ignorance I thought all viewpoints were tolerated. It was you that did ask for some credibility to my initial statements. I'll no longer add to the list of hypocritical replies in my own defense.

My point was that the point of a discusison is to discuss the issues that both parties want to discuss.  Getting into a semantical debate is one of those things that people find obnoxious.

The context of the discussion matters a great deal.  When I buy a BMW, I don't care whether the parts were manufactured in Korea or China or wherever. It's a German car.  Similarly, I don't care where the actual Intel CPU is manufactured, it's an American CPU.  Heck, Coca Cola is manufactured in various places around the globe too but it's as American as say McDonalds (which gets its food from all over as well).

I live in Sweden where many muslims have immigrated during the past 20 years. Mostly from war zones as Bosnia and Iraq. I can't say that I can relate to any of the doom and gloom. The muslims I know and work with are kind and gentle people and even though none of them are as secular as the common Swede (without any stats to back it up, sorry Brad please don't kick my ass, I would say that Sweden is one of the most secular countries in the world) but I have never felt any threat of them forcing their religion and laws on Swedish society. Perhaps I am just an optimist and mingle in good circles.

Hi Jelvis,

I only get on people's cases if they substitute their opinion as fact. So saying "Everyone I know wears green shoes" is fine. Saying "Most Swedes wear green shoes" would bring a "where's your evidence" comment.

I agree that Sweden is very secular. The issue isn't whether Muslims would force their religion onto others. I don't think that's the worry. The issue is that Secular Europeans, for good or bad, are decreasing in population at a fairly alarming rate and that Islamic immigrants are representing a fast growing percentage of the population. 

I think most Muslims are kind, friendly people. But that as a whole, they have a higher percentage than other cultures of people who turn to Jihadist type violence (as previous discussions of polls have made pretty definitely clear).

So what it boils down to is in 50 years, what will be the status of Europe given current trends? A better place than today or a worse place.   As someone who likes Europeans, I want it to be a better place. But my definition of what a better place is doesn't seem to jive with what some Europeans think (see previous toxic comments <g>).

youtube.com/watch?v=YfGQahPo6hU

www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/manufacturing/manufacturing_at_a_glance.pdf

Did you even bother to read what you linked? According to what "you" linked There are NO fabrication facilities in China. Only assembly sites exsist in China.

The DX4 processor which is from the 1990's that I see daily in the building of the product I work with, have come from China.

Do you realize how old that chip is? It's based on the 486 cpu. Link

If you're going to talk about Intel, how about you talk about the "newer" series? Like the Pentium D Dual Core CPUs ALL made in the USA! The DX4 is "old" technology and the patents are expired. Hence the Chinese cpu's because the old technology has been farmed out.

The DX4 processor which is from the 1990's that I see daily in the building of the product I work with, have come from China.

The fact that you're still working with DX4's tells me that neither you or your company have kept up with "current" technology. Just because you own a newer one, doesn't mean you know what's going on under the hood!

Go to "any" CompUSA or Best Buy and ask to see a "boxed" Intel cpu. Look where it says made in "". It will not say China.

If you're going to talk about Intel, how about you talk about the "newer" series? Like the Pentium D Dual Core CPUs ALL made in the USA! The DX4 is "old" technology and the patents are expired. Hence the Chinese cpu's because the old technology has been farmed out.

Why even debate the point where the parts are assembled.

The context of where things are created is about companies making things we've heard of.

Intel, AMD, Microsoft, nVidia are American companies. ATI is Canadian. It's totally irrelevant whether they contract China or timbuktu to manufacture the part in the context of this discussion.

The point of this off-shoot was what was Europe making these days. I don't think either Americans or Europeans would take great pride if say France became the sweatshop of the world for menial labor.

If anything, the outsourcing part hurts the European argument more because cost can't be the full issue as to why European companies aren't leading in industries since they can at least come up with the "thing" and then have some third-world country manufacture the result.

 

The context of where things are created is about companies making things we've heard of.

I don't see why manufacturing even matters at all. Australia is a first world state yet has almost none. Where do our exports come from? Agriculture, mostly, but our fourth largest export is education. We teach Southeast Asia and a significant proportion of the China market.

Europe undoubtedly has a similar suite of service industries which drives its economies.

It's all comparative advantage; France grows wine because it can do it well (although not so well as California and the Barossa Valley if recent figures are any guide). The US manufactures cars because for some reason people desire the enormous petrol guzzlers. The ports of Singapore make it a commercial powerhouse despite its lack of factories.

Just because Europe doesn't produce anything you, in your seemingly extremely limited experience, recognise, doesn't mean they don't produce useful and valuable things even outside of famous factories. Can you really imagine a world without the London Metals Exchange or French aeronautics? A world without Swiss banks or Dutch credit? German precision optics or Belgian chocolate? Highly efficient engines, especially for cars?

They may be in decline, but Europe still does a lot of things really, really well. If Islamic radicals manage to overrun Europe it's remotely possible those things could cease to exist. But Allah doesn't stand against technical competence (Damascus steel anyone?) so I can't imagine the comparative advantage of Europe in its chosen markets is going to disappear anytime soon.

I agree that Sweden is very secular. The issue isn't whether Muslims would force their religion onto others. I don't think that's the worry. The issue is that Secular Europeans, for good or bad, are decreasing in population at a fairly alarming rate and that Islamic immigrants are representing a fast growing percentage of the population.

These issues are connected though: Moderate Muslims accepting secularization aren't much of a problem, fanatic ones are. The US are the classical example of different cultures and - to a lesser extent - religions coming together, subordinating their particularities under a common goal. The question for Europe is whether integration works in the end - the issue was ignored for long, Germany and his strong Turkish minority (many of them living in a "parallel world") being just one example.

I think most Muslims are kind, friendly people. But that as a whole, they have a higher percentage than other cultures of people who turn to Jihadist type violence (as previous discussions of polls have made pretty definitely clear).

I agree. The ugly face of Islamists that we get to see when the latest demonstration or bloodshed has happened is frightening, inhuman and has to be fought against on all levels. But it's just one of the faces of Islam, I think Islam has to undergo changes that Christianity already made. If we'd still follow e.g. the Old Testament word by word, things would be much different. There are moderate and modern streams within Islam, we should support them as much as we can and is good for them - because it'll be good for us in the long run.

So what it boils down to is in 50 years, what will be the status of Europe given current trends? A better place than today or a worse place. As someone who likes Europeans, I want it to be a better place. But my definition of what a better place is doesn't seem to jive with what some Europeans think (see previous toxic comments

If I may say so, this sounds a lot better than some of the subliminal "the Euro-Weenies suck anyway" statements made earlier - with the most blatant not coming from you of course.

"The average European" should care more about what he/she can do and not wait for the government to do something. That's something we should learn from the American approach. And we need to come closer together in Europe and tear down the walls that still exist in our heads and between our people. Future is challenge, today as much as ever.

Just to add a little update on the state of "multiculturalism" in Britain. Halal meat in school and only halal meat. Hmmm.... I wonder why this only works one-way there?

I don't see why manufacturing even matters at all. Australia is a first world state yet has almost none. Where do our exports come from? Agriculture, mostly, but our fourth largest export is education. We teach Southeast Asia and a significant proportion of the China market.

Yes but no one is arguing that Australia is the trend setting for the rest of mankind.

It's not about whether Australia, Europe, Canada, etc. is a modern, first world country (or continent).  The question is one of worldwide influence on the course of mankind as a whole.

For centuries, Europe was where the leading thinkers and creators lived and from there led the world in shaping where humanity was going. 

But that has passed.  Some of the reason is definitely from two world wars. But I don't think that's the major reason. I don't know what the major reason for it is. But the mantle of being major shapers in the destiny of humany has passed to the United States and to a lesser extent, east-Asia. 

In 50 years, I think east-asia will play an even greater role. But I think Europe may well be spent if it follows the trend it's been following for the last 30 years. Toss in a declining birth-rate and immigration that is largely coming from a culture with a track record of brutality and little innovation and you have a definite non-ideal situation.

Just because Europe doesn't produce anything you, in your seemingly extremely limited experience, recognise, doesn't mean they don't produce useful and valuable things even outside of famous factories. Can you really imagine a world without the London Metals Exchange or French aeronautics? A world without Swiss banks or Dutch credit? German precision optics or Belgian chocolate? Highly efficient engines, especially for cars?

Do you really want to go there, Cacto? Do you want to put your experience up with mine? Do you really want to make your argument into a personal attack that the reason I have come to my conclusions on Europe are based on "extremely limited experience"?  Really?

Did I, anywhere, state that Europe makes nothing at all?  Did you completely ignore the discussions about BASF, Bayer, BMW, etc.?  Much time was spent (by me and e-Stab) talking specifically about industries, naming specific leading European companies, etc.  So clearly the discussion is not about there being zero companies in Europe. 

If you can't bother to read the discussion before resorting to some petty little attack on my "Experience" then you need to move along or at least refrain from making a snide comment about my lack of "experience".

 (btw what is it with you left-wingers anyway, cacto? Could you please answer this: Why is it that when you guys see someone who doesn't share your point of view that your only conclusion is that they must be intellectually inferior to you in some way? Is it a lack of self-control or just a lack of empathy or what? You guys never seem to be able to conclude that two people could have the same data and come to different conclusions)

These issues are connected though: Moderate Muslims accepting secularization aren't much of a problem, fanatic ones are. The US are the classical example of different cultures and - to a lesser extent - religions coming together, subordinating their particularities under a common goal. The question for Europe is whether integration works in the end - the issue was ignored for long, Germany and his strong Turkish minority (many of them living in a "parallel world") being just one example.

I agree. That is, to use the phrase, the million Euro question.  Will the 4th or 5th generations Muslims in the future be much like traditional Europeans or will they be like Muslims are in other parts of the world?  To that I really have no idea.

The Turkish situation in Germany I think is one that raises some concern. But that could very well be the issue of children of immigrants not being granted citizenship too (i.e. it may not be related to them being Muslim).

The ugly face of Islamists that we get to see when the latest demonstration or bloodshed has happened is frightening, inhuman and has to be fought against on all levels. But it's just one of the faces of Islam, I think Islam has to undergo changes that Christianity already made. If we'd still follow e.g. the Old Testament word by word, things would be much different. There are moderate and modern streams within Islam, we should support them as much as we can and is good for them - because it'll be good for us in the long run.

Totally agree. If Islam is going to survive as a major force in 100 years, it needs to evolve as Christianity has. As every anti-Muslim discussion goes, someone inevitably points out that 700 years ago the Christians were no better. 

My concern has to do with how every Islamic country in the world behaves. Other than Turkey, and even Turkey is considered the arm pit of Europe, the record of success for Islamic countries is pretty poor.

Hence, the more Islamic Europe becomes, the more like other Islamic regions I fear Europe will become like.

If I may say so, this sounds a lot better than some of the subliminal "the Euro-Weenies suck anyway" statements made earlier - with the most blatant not coming from you of course. "The average European" should care more about what he/she can do and not wait for the government to do something. That's something we should learn from the American approach. And we need to come closer together in Europe and tear down the walls that still exist in our heads and between our people. Future is challenge, today as much as ever.

lol. Well I am always amred to do battle with the "Americans are a bunch of uncouth rednecks" Euro-weenies who always find their way into any discussion.

What I specifically am trying to get a grasp on is why European populations are in decline. It's not a population density issue. It's a cultural issue and I think it is related to the same issue that has caused Europe, as a whole, to give up its leadership role in shaping the destiny of mankind.

You saw the earlier discussions where one European here was scoffing at owning a Microwave oven (or a Dryer or many of the other modern conveniences). To me, that sounds terrible. It's cultural bias to be sure but it strikes me as the thinking of stagnation.  And I think it is that kind of thinking that causes Europe to lose its role as global leader in industries. 

That is, if new fangled thing X is viewed with suspicion, then others will end up taking the lead. The European position on GM foods I think will really come to bite them in the long-run for instance. There seems to be a tendancy to cede industries to others because of a mindset of "how things are now is just fine" and they get passed on by as a result.

This really shows through when one starts to look at the top drug companies or top chemical companies because these are areas Europe should dominate -- industries that came into their prime while Europe was in its prime whose leadership isn't based on cost but rather innovation.

When industries move from being global leaders into being purveyers of luxury niches, I see that as an admission of handing over the reigns of innovation to others (i.e. as much as I can't wait to get my Porche 911 Turbo next Fall, I'm not buying it because it's mainstream).

The Turkish situation in Germany I think is one that raises some concern. But that could very well be the issue of children of immigrants not being granted citizenship too (i.e. it may not be related to them being Muslim).

There are mechanisms now, but probably they're not easily reachable enough. German citizenship still is a controversial issue though: 10 years ago most politicians wouldn't even admit that Germany is an immigration target (!?!). And some Turkish people don't seem to really want the German passport (or not exclusively), that has to do with tradition and pride I guess (and a heritage to be made in Turkey sometimes...).
On the other hand, the average Turk is much less a security issue than, let's say, the average Arab in Great Britain. We had our share of incidents linked to terrorism, but as far as I know no Turk was involved.

What I specifically am trying to get a grasp on is why European populations are in decline.

No idea. It probably has to do with "modern" (?) ideals: Independency, and doing what YOU want NOW. And the average European is somewhat pessimistic and (educated) people usually have less children then. I plan to do my contribution to the next generation though.

Do you really want to go there, Cacto? Do you want to put your experience up with mine? Do you really want to make your argument into a personal attack that the reason I have come to my conclusions on Europe are based on "extremely limited experience"? Really?

No. In my experience though everything of high quality outside of computer parts and software comes from either Europe or Japan. Mostly Europe still for some consumer electronics like TVs, kitchen appliances and cars, but Japan for the rest of the manufactured stuff.

Why is it that when you guys see someone who doesn't share your point of view that your only conclusion is that they must be intellectually inferior to you in some way? Is it a lack of self-control or just a lack of empathy or what? You guys never seem to be able to conclude that two people could have the same data and come to different conclusions

To be honest I viewed your responses to dan and others as rude and intellectually condescending, but on reflection I think it's because we're both operating from totally different ideas of what, exactly, makes for an important industry. Without any common ground for argument neither side is going to sound any more than a self-indulgent prat with the common sense of a mayfly and the intelligence of a sheep.

But I think Europe may well be spent if it follows the trend it's been following for the last 30 years. Toss in a declining birth-rate and immigration that is largely coming from a culture with a track record of brutality and little innovation and you have a definite non-ideal situation.

I doubt the Islamic push will have as much effect as feared, but I've already said my reasons for that belief. Innovation isn't a big deal anyway, because what Europe brings to manufacturing is art, not innovation - their machinery and vehicles are often the most beautiful and graceful on the market, with the highest quality levels yet often quirky operation (like Smeg or the ugly yet appealing porsches). Islam is all about refining something coarse until it shines, so philosophically the two approaches aren't incompatible.

For centuries, Europe was where the leading thinkers and creators lived and from there led the world in shaping where humanity was going. But that has passed.

Interesting Quote, and I am not going to get into the argument. But it does bring to mind that for centuries, China was the center, and then Arabia (yes, the Muslims), and then the Europeans. Today it is America, but hardly for centuries (century yes) so far. One wonders where it will go next.

No. In my experience though everything of high quality outside of computer parts and software comes from either Europe or Japan. Mostly Europe still for some consumer electronics like TVs, kitchen appliances and cars, but Japan for the rest of the manufactured stuff.

And that's fine that it's your experience. But that doesn't mean those who don't share your experience are less experienced than you are.

You're in Australia are you not? I suspect the products you deal with are different than the products I deal with (American cars are certainly not engineered in Europe in any sort of general sense incidentally). And the products I deal with are different than the products e-Stab deals with.

That is why we're using publicly available statistics on products, services, etc. We are trying to take away some of the subjectivity from it.  And if you look at industry after industry, Europe is not in the lead. The newer the industry, the less likely you are to see Europeans involved.

The technology industry being an extreme case. And yet, in 30 years when most of the world will likely have long since embraced genetically modified foods (for instance) Europe will lag behind due to social or political reasons (you saw the post by the European who scoffed at microwave ovens who thiks they're used mostly for dealing with frozen packets).

I don't think the United States will be the center of innovation forever either. In fact, I would be surprised if that's the case in another 200 years.  What makes these conversations interesting is trying to figure out the WHY.

I doubt the Islamic push will have as much effect as feared, but I've already said my reasons for that belief. Innovation isn't a big deal anyway, because what Europe brings to manufacturing is art, not innovation - their machinery and vehicles are often the most beautiful and graceful on the market, with the highest quality levels yet often quirky operation (like Smeg or the ugly yet appealing porsches). Islam is all about refining something coarse until it shines, so philosophically the two approaches aren't incompatible.

I agree with your statement except for the part that innovation isn't a big deal.  Without innovation, we'd still be living in caves.

At one time, Europe was at the forefront of innovation.  They were in the driver's seat of where mankind was going.  Now, increasingly, they're a passenger complaining about the driving style of those doing the innovating.  At best, they're making luxury goods -- the art you speak of.

But they're not produce the mass culture products anymore.  Very few European movies make it big, for instance. European fashion has taken a real hit in recent years relative to other markets (Blue jeans or dockers? Nike shoes? (Adidas is German and is a dominating player so score one for the Germans there too -- note again how Germany, which got wrecked in World War II is by far the leader in Europe in actually making stuff -- so it might be worthwhile to look at how Germany is different than other European countries).

They've long since lost leadership in the candy market but swiss or dutch and belgian chocolate is still to die for.  They don't lead in the auto industry but BWM and Mercedes are amongst the best cars out there. 

The problem is, if you give up on being the driving force, you're at the whims of others who are.  Consider the technology industry that's arrisen in the past 30 years.  Europe's a total bit player in that. They are at the whim of Microsoft or Apple.  Or in CPUs of all shapes and sizes. Intel, AMD, nVidia, ATI, Sun, HP, Xerox, you name it, north American in origin.

And if it's not the Americans, it's the Japanese or another Asian country that's dominating.  You want a console? American or Japanese.  You want a monitor? American or Japanese. You want a television? American or Japanese. You want a DVD player? Same thing. Over and over and over.

What we've been talking about here is that there may be a connection between European population decline and the loss of innovation and leadership from Europe. What is the cause?

We have variables: Population decline. Less represented in newer industries and losing ground in traditional industries. Highest suicide rate of any 1st-world area in the world (probably highest overall too but don't have those stats handy).

What is the root cause? It's not education alone because Europeans are no more educated than say Americans or Japanese.  My personal opinion is that it has to do with religion. I'm not religious and certainly plenty of non-religious people have children, but I think there is a dark side to extreme secularism -- living for instant gratification in the here and now.  Combined with a welfare society that punishes those who put their kneck out (you can't even fire workers in France easily) and you have a letahl combination.

 

Highest suicide rate of any 1st-world area in the world (probably highest overall too but don't have those stats handy).

That was a little too far out of the window I think: WHO stats

Most European suicide rates (I looked up Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the UK) aren't all that different from e.g. the one in the US. Japan's is significantly higher though, especially when taking a look at the rate for women. Some unpleasant places lead the statistics (Belarus), and I don't trust some of the values (Iran anyone?). Some Eastern European countries are in top spots, but they have large changes to master and some of the values might be a little outdated.

Can Europe reverse the trend or is it already too late?

Yes they can, it is not too late. There are only around 15 million Muslims in Western Europe, out of 400 million Europeans. It will take centuries for Muslims to "outbreed" Europeans, if it happens at all.

At least one author thinks that Muslim population growth themselves will also stagnate (granted this is for Muslim nations, not Muslims in Europe):

WWW Link

Europe can at least look to Russia for a foretaste of what may come, since Russia has a) a falling population, of which almost 20% are Muslim already and c) a government which is decidely unfriendly to its Muslim inhabitants.

Will Europe be forced to don the hijab and accept their status as Dhimmi under the approaching New Caliphate?

According to your link, Dhimmi is the native non Muslim populations of an area under Muslim rule lost to those Muslim rulers because of a jihad type war, presumably with this approaching new Caliphate.

I don't think "breeding their way to power" counts as a jihad type war, so I'm not sure why this Caliphate idea is relevant to the discussion. In any event, I don't see anyone signing any treaty forcing the womenfolk to wear a hijab.

Re suicide rates, the number I gave came from the PDF I linked to earlier which grouped European suicide rates as a single average.

Though I grant you that Europe's may not be higher than any single country (Japan's IS very high).  That link you provided was pretty interesting. What is the deal in Russia?

Europe can at least look to Russia for a foretaste of what may come, since Russia has a) a falling population, of which almost 20% are Muslim already and c) a government which is decidely unfriendly to its Muslim inhabitants.

No, Russia's situation is different: A questionable democracy and economic success fueled by high prices for fossil fuels for the most part (followed by increasing weapon sales I guess). Russia could (and should in my opinion) easily get rid of some Muslim dominated regions which are nothing but trouble anyway (Chechnya anyone?).

What is the deal in Russia?

Russia's demographic figures are awful. According to the CIA World Factbook, the population declines with about 0.4% each year (EU: +0.2%, USA +0.9%). It may not sound that much at the first glance, but it means that they lose almost 1,500 inhabitants each day. The life expectancy at birth is considered to be only 60.5 years for males.

The 1 million Muslims have got the 59 million Christians scared shitless over Christmas and additionally are breeding them into the ground. The wave is generational and not current, hence the demographics of it all. 59 million people who each have 1 child per person results in zero population growth. 59 million who have 2 children per (or evn more inthis case) double or more their representation in the population each generation. Further these new generations are even larger portions of the military age and power-holders of each successive generation.

That's assuming they all embrace Islam. Not all children of Christian parents embrace Christianity, and not all children of Muslim parents will embrace Islam. I don't think the situation is as dire as it appears.