The War Is Dead
Long live the war
from 
JoeUser Forums
JoeUser Forums
Often, when entering a house in northern Taiwan, I would notice an old photograph of a soldier hanging proudly on the wall. When I enquired who the man in question was, I would typically be told: "This is my grandfather, he fled to Taiwan in 1949."
Most of the old men who take pride of place in Taiwanese homes have now passed away. I wonder what they would have made of this week's visit to China by Lien Chan, the head of the Kuomintang (KMT). There is, at last, a reconciliation of sorts between the communists and the nationalists. The Chinese civil war is over, but the China-Taiwan conflict is not.
It's ironic that the party which wants to yield to the hiers of Mao is the self-same one which fought the communists for so long (and with such ineptitude). It seems strange that the KMT are not the ones rallying to defend their Republic of China.
But, on closer inspecion, this volte face is not unusual at all. For mainland China, having abandoned communism, is no longer the ideological opponent of the KMT. In fact, one could argue that today's China - authoritarian, state capitalist and fervently nationalist - would please Chiang Kai-shek very much.
So in some ways this week's visit by Taiwan's opposition leader was the final act of reconciliation between the sons of Sun Yat-sen. But, touching as it was to see the tyrants kiss and make up, the other war, that between China and Taiwan, is very far from being resolved.
For Lien Chan is not the leader of Taiwan, he is only the head of the pan-blue part of the population. Few in the Taiwanese-speaking south of the island will have cheered his visit to Beijing this week. Most pertinently of all, as even Lien Chan himself pointed out, he is not the democratically-elected leader of Taiwan. He can not, and does not, speak for the country.
For China the problem remains: How can it reconcile itself to the new Taiwanese nationalism? How can it reach out to the many people on the island who dream of the day when their beautiful country takes its place among the family of nations? Beijing's absurd rhetoric and crude threats serve only to antagonise the pan-green and ironically, to weaken the hand of the KMT. If China were less aggressive towards Taiwan, then perhaps fewer people on the island would have viewed Lien Chan's recent visit to the mainland as snivelling defeatism.
But an easing of tension across the strait seems unlikely. Preventing Taiwanese independence is now so central to regime justification in Beijing that I am increasingly convinced war will break out before the end of this decade.
For all that the anti-secession law was monstrous, if party hardliners had had their way, it would have been even worse. Apparently, the militarists wanted to pass a law which would have set a time-frame for "re-unification", with war to be declared should the Taiwanese refuse to play ball.
As China grows richer and stronger, the issue of Taiwna becomes more, not less, important. The "renegade province" is an affront to China's pride. Cheeky Formosa's refusal to bend the kneee mocks China's ambition to be a great power. Thus, for the sake of China's pride, Taiwan must be brought under its control. This for me is the dynamic leading to war.
But nothing in life is inevitable, war can still be avoided. However, while hoping for the best, Taiwan must also be preparing for the worst. Obviously, this means strengthening the country's military, particularly the air force which will be crucial in repelling any invasion.
But it also means circling the wagons ideologically. There should be no more freelance diplomacy from the KMT, since this only sows division in Taiwan. Rather, the pan-green and pan-blue need to hammer out a national consensus (as they have done in the past) on how best to deal with the Chinese threat. These are the principles which Taiwan should set out to China and the world:
1. Taiwan will not initiate conflict in the strait.
2. Taiwan will defend itself if attacked.
3. Taiwan will not enter negotiations with pre-conditions (i.e. Taiwan will not sign up to the "one China" dogma).
4. Any deal which is reached with China will be put before the Taiwanese people in a referendum. If they say "no", then the deal is off.
For me, these four principles strike a balance. They show Taiwan as reasonable but not spineless, strong but not aggressive. To the international community, they indicate that Taiwan is ready to talk peace, but also ready to fight war. For the pan-green, they show that the Taiwanese people are sovereign and that Taiwan will defend itself. For the pan-blue, they demonstrate that everything is on the table for negotiation, that there is no inexorable process leading to independence.
In the humble opinion of this wai-guo-ren, such a course of action is far more prudent than the one presently being pursued by the KMT.
PolMach Forums
