I was talking to someone today who works for the US Army Corps of Engineers. He said that they are building a base in Iraq that will be the second largest military base in the world. That seems rather like an exaggeration. However, the point is that the US has no intention of ever leaving Iraq completely. Period.

How's that for a spin on the issue? Anyone who thinks we're leaving Iraq after they establish themselves is sorely mistaken. And, misinformed. The US has no intention of leaving the oil. So, whatever government gets established there is going to have to live with this fact.. And, that's that.

We were in Subic Bay since the end of the Spanish American War. (with the exception of the time the Japanese held it during WW2 of course) It was closed during the base closure days of the 90's. The base was closed due to the end of the Cold war, and expansions of existing bases in Guam, and Okinawa. Basically it was rendered obsolete.

That puts it just shy of 100 years. Twice as long as we had troops in Europe for the Cold War and WW2.

That's a long time.

The US will have to maintain a strong military presence in Iraq for a long time as well. Mainly to insure that the Islamic fundamentalists don't take over. Oil is the second reason. And given our countries dependance on arab oil, i don't see how anyone can say we won't maintain a long term military presence in the country. If you remember correctly it's precisely why bush 1.0 kicked saddam out of kuwait in the first place. It was because our government didn't want Saddam (or any other enemy of the US for that matter) having control of that much oil. (Remember Iran in 1979?)

Anybody who thinks were outta there in a few years is just naive. As much as i hate to admit it.

Very good post BTW!

dr.miller,

im not necessarily convinced that we are setting up a permanent installation the way dabe suggested, though i do see this as a possibility. but maybe im searching for a best-case scenario, regardless of whether or not we remove our forces.

again, im not there. im no soldier and im not looking to spin the situation to look a certain way from a certain political perspective. of course, i do have a political perspective, but at the moment i just feel overwhelmed by what i see as a long, and somewhat unlikely, road to stability.

do you see it another way?

tbt

You guys and your crazy oil conspiracies.

"we could discuss the reasons for this war, our reasons for pursuing several political and/or social goals. but my question is one of probability, really. can we leave and have the country survive?"

TaBoo, we really are in a damned if you do / damned if you don't scenario in Iraq. Truly, I don't know what the answer is. But, it seems like there will be horrific bloodshed if we stay. There could be complete collapse if we leave. Either way, it's a lousy choice. Sometimes, it feels like there will be a civil war no matter what the Americans do, and leaving will only hasten this inevitable event. I dunno. That's really ugly, so we stay for now, because there is nothing else to do. That's why I hate Bush so much (at least one reason). He gambled away thousands of lives in order to eliminate a rather minor threat. He got us into this misery making quagmire, and I really hate the SOB. I hate him because he stuck it to us, and he stuck it to the Iraqis. And his neocon buddies are stealing billions of dollars in the process. What a total waste of resources, both material and human.

I was watching The West Wing on TV tonight. In the episode there was a character, played by Christopher Lloyd, who was working with the Belarus government to write a constitution. He and Toby were arguing about what the constitution should say, but Lloyd insisted that it was not the constitution that they were writing. Instead, they had to teach democracy to the Belarusans. He was insisting that you cannot write a democratic constitution for a country to follow, if the people do not understand, and have never lived under democratic government. The constitution can only come after the people learn democracy.

I thought this was interesting, because it seems in Iraq we are attempting to impose a democracy on people who have no concept of what it really means. We are putting the cart before the horse. This is something that should have been done diplomatically, rather than by force, and Iraqis largely see the US as an occupying force rather than there to teach democracy.

It's late and I'm tired. Tough day at work. Good artilcle, TaBoo. You pose some really tough questions, though unanswerable right now, are definitely not rhetorical.

couchman,

well, that definitely answers my question; your feelings about permanent installments are a little different than mine, but i agree with your take nonetheless.

we will be in iraq for a long while. im not certain where you were going with your media-hyped iran twin comment, but i wonder whether or not the us would have anything to say about the most enlightened elected theocracy, or about even your most enlightened pan-arab rule. forget about any oil issues for the moment. there are more voices here in the middle east and the us is going to have to deal. we are the infrastructure there, now, like it or not.

tbt

You would be WRONG! Although it did sustain damage from the volcano, that is NOT the reason it closed. It was closed at the request of the Philippine senate.

Along with Clark AFB.

im not certain i believe, like dabe, that we will be there forever. but dr. guy, i wonder where you are finding your hope. im not sure if you, like couchman, expect an extended stay with a positive end result, or you believe that we will be removing forces in the next few years. but right now, i have no idea what to hope for.

tbt

im not certain i believe, like dabe, that we will be there forever. but dr. guy, i wonder where you are finding your hope. im not sure if you, like couchman, expect an extended stay with a positive end result, or you believe that we will be removing forces in the next few years. but right now, i have no idea what to hope for.

I get my hope from history.  While we have had extended stays in bases overseas, when we were told to get, we got.  The most recent one was in Saudi Arabia.  They told us go, we went.  Unlike the eurpoean poweres, America has never been an imperial power.  As Cesar would say, Veni, Vidi, Vici, and then go home.

Kind of Ironic that right now some of our oldest bases, we are trying to leave, and the host country is cryiing fowl!

im not disagreeing with you. maybe it's the simple fact that im here listening to varied news sources, and my understanding of whats happening there is filtered through so many perspectives.

i hope that at some point there will be someone in iraq backed by the popular opinion and with the understanding to determine that it is indeed time for us to leave.

what i believe, though, is that there is too much instability throughout the region and a severely gutted infrastructure in iraq itself for us to anticipate any likely pullout date. but as i said, i have no interest in having us pull out any time soon, because anyone can see, even some of us liberals, that the country would collapse if we did.

my other thought concerns the spirit of the surrounding nations. one could possibly make an argument that most of the regional unrest over the last twenty years stems directly from iraq. im not sure this is completely true, even if couchman seems to think that the days of a popular radical theocracy are over. but it would be nice to think that as the iraqi system stabilizes, so will the rest of the region. no doubt the issue of a reinstated palestine will continue regardless, but with increased stability everywhere else, one could at least imagine the possibility of decreased conflict in israel.

i just dont completely buy it. it seems that several radical stances exist amongst these countries--and not all are religious, of course. right now it seems that insurgencies will continue, that we do not have adequate forces there to solidify and train a local police force, or provide for other fundamental services that even the most bare-boned government must provide.

if you ask me for a better suggestion, i have none at the moment--hence this article. there is a stupid, idealistic chunk of me that wants me to find my way to iraq to see it for myself. you guys know that im not a soldier and it is stressful and difficult for me to make a case for what should be done without really knowing what is happening there. the last time i was in the middle east, i spent my time in egypt and israel. in israel, i was lucky enough to arrive between bombings, though scars on the buildings were still fresh, and busses and streets i spent a lot of time on suffered soon after i left.

israel is a place of order, in some ways, but i will never get over the memory of sitting in cafes with fellow traveler friends, and watching baby-faced girls walk in and sit down, dressed in fatigues and carrying assault rifles.

israel has a government, albeit a chaotic parliamentary system. i wonder what iraq has. . .and that is why i am looking for hope right now.

tbt

Reply By: TaBoo TenentePosted: Thursday, February 10, 2005

TBT, all you rconcerns are valid.  And in the end, the government of Iraq might be closer to iran than we like, but that does not mean we whould abandon them.  When Saddam invaded Kuwait, what happened?

Do you think that if Iran tried to invade Iraq, that the world would sit by?  I dont fear the survival of Iraq, I do worry that they will drift into a theocracy, altho I think Bush is doing a better job than Carter did in Iran.  But in the end, it is up to the people.  Even today, many Iranis dont like the theocracy,a nd I think it will fail in time.

Truth is, we dont know the future.  But we can look forward to it with hope, or with dread.  Both will not be 100% right, but one lets you sleep at night,and also look to how you can fix the problems sure to pop up, without becoming despondant.

hey couchman,

you're bringing a lot of good bits here, but you're too angry at someone who doesn't exist on this thread. it's hard not to become sensitive in such a polarized system, but you've got to know that youre throwing around as much anger as, say, an anti-war activist. "will you just calm the fuck down, man?" "calmer than you, Dude." sorry for the lebowski tangent.

im not sure if you are trying to label me one of your naysayers of doom spouting about terrorists making unnatural whoopie with thugs in vietnam, but, er, come on, dude. you're seeing things.

what i see is a gutted country (yes, the gutting process has taken place over several decades) in a very unstable region of the world. i see continued insurgencies there and highlt polarized political debate here (all right?) so it shouldnt surprise you that im looking for hope.

yeah im happy about free elections, and im surprisingly excited about the voter turn out. still, if youre breathing a sigh of relief, you may want to reserve some extra 02 for later, just in case.

i am cetainly a liberal, and there is no way that you would ever hear me call you a nazi, unless you suggested it yourself. some liberals have hyperbolically used the term and in no way do i sanction that or any other labeling. but i could pick two or three labels out of your rants, and add pinko commie hairy hippie-lettuce smokin skirt wearin bleeding heart sissy mary to not to mention the worst of all the labels (LIBERAL) to the list of accusatory, unproductive, and frankly unenlightened labeling done recently.

none of which, of course, has anything to do with this thread. there are soldiers dying on both sides . . .civilians, too. i have no interest in suggesting this is a worse human disaster than any other, but that doesnt bring a happy face out from me yet.

if the voting makes you hopeful, then good. me, too. but for me, it's not enough.

tbt

Reply By: couchmanPosted: Thursday, February 10, 2005

Great Post Couchman.  Thanks for the info, some I already knew, but some very insighful.