I'm not sure which part of 'The USA owes its creditors about $4.4 trillion right now' you guys don't understand, but I'll try to explain.
The USA owes its creditors about $4.4 trillion right now. Paying all that interest means more borrowing – which requires still more loans to keep “rolling over” all those 10-year Treasury notes as they become due for repayment plus interest.
But with the dollar plummeting in value and inflation rising, foreign lenders are losing confidence in the worth of Bush’s IOU’s. Oil-producing nations are saying they prefer payment in Euros, gold dinars (at left), or yak hides – anything but more bogus bucks.
Until a few months ago, Asia’s central banks – particularly the big commercial banks in Japan and China – have been financing America’s huge appetite for consumer products, weapons and warfare. The interest alone on all those loans is unpayable. With total state and federal government debts currently passing $14 trillion dollars in a near-vertical climb, US taxpayers have shelled out $15 trillion in interest payments since 1960 – while the principal continues to rise.
Higher interest rates means more interest on the national debt, which is really the debt of American children, and their children – just as climate change really kicks in with increasingly costly catastrophes.
But despite a decade’s prediction of economic doom, financial meltdown hasn’t happened yet. And it won’t, runs the counter-argument, because global interdependence means that everyone must maintain the illusion of solvency – or go down together.
Still, if someone blinks, all those debt bombs blow up at once.
That someone could be China.
Unhappily, the self-restraining domino theory of Mutually Assured Financial Destruction has a fatal flaw. As a financial blogger writes: “Asian central banks don't have to sell their existing Treasuries for the dollar to come under pressure. All they have to do is to stop buying new Treasuries.”
This is already happening.
Foreigners have stopped buying US stocks. From net purchases of $9.7 billion on Wall Street in July, offshore investors turned to a $2.1 billion sell-off last August. Private foreign investors also sold $4.4 billion more in T-bills than they bought that month. In fact, all foreign investment into the United States has fallen off sharply. The Institute for International Economics’ John Williamson says that foreclosing on Uncle Sam “wouldn't be in the interest of the world. But any one country might think, ‘I'll beat the crowd and diversify first.’”
The Catch-22 dilemma is that whether acting individually or internationally, the smartest precautionary moves – curbing spending, reducing personal debt, reducing “exposure” in the US stock market and the US dollar – could also crash a global casino dominated by debt and the dollar.
The collapse of the greenback and America’s faulty empire could come as quickly as the fall of the former Soviet Union – and for many of the same reasons. You might want to plant a winter garden. And throw a few cans of beans in the cupboard.