I think you misunderstood me. Firstly, I am a Democrat. Secondly, I wasn’t talking about the Electoral College, although I believe it needs reforming. I was talking about the insanity and unfairness of the constitutional provisions that are meant to resolve a 269-269 tie.
I will try to be more articulate and concise.
In the event of a tie, the House of Representatives picks the President and the Senate elects the Vice President.
However, the Representatives are not necessarily allowed to vote according to their party or their conscience. They are bound to vote according to how the majority of their congressional delegation votes. And each state gets exactly one vote.
So, to win, the candidate needs the support of 26 House of Representatives state delegations out of 50.
And the system does disadvantage Democrats because of gerrymandering.
For example, in 2012, Obama won Pennsylvania by 5.39%. His popularity boosted the Democratic turnout for the Congressional races. The Democrats won 2,793,538 votes against the Republicans’ 2,710,070. However, here is the catch. The Democrats won 83000 more votes, but because of concentrated support and gerrymandering, they actually lost seats in 2012. The Democrats won 5 Congressional districts in Pennsylvania, while the Democrats won 13.
This means, that Hilary could win Pennsylvania by eight points but if ;[a] there is an electoral college tie [b] the Republicans retain the majority of Pennsylvania House seats and ;[c] this pattern is repeated in all the purple states you mention; her goose is cooked and Trump is our next President.
It is unlikely the Republicans will lose many House seats because they are well dug in. Maybe they lose two in Pennsylvania. That will be eleven Republicans against 7 Democrats. It is highly unlikely that two or three of those Republicans will defect to elect a Democratic President, even if they personally loathe Trump. When the eleven Republicans meet with their 7 Democratic colleagues, they will overrule them and say that Pennsylvania’s single vote in the House will go to Trump. There will be nothing the 7 Democrats could do about it.
The Democrats won clear majorities of the popular vote for Congress in Michigan, Wisconsin and Virginia, but it didn’t translate to a majority of House Seats.
Bottom line is Hilary has to win 270 votes. If she wins 269 electoral votes, she will have to give a concession speech even if she has actually won the popular vote.
Plus Trump has other advantages. First, many Democratic voters are flocking to the Libertarian or Green Party Presidential candidates, taking votes away from Hilary the way Nader of the Greens took from Gore in 2000.
Secondly, Trump has the major advantage of being championed by Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin , who may try to rig the election for him. After all, a President Trump would benefit Putin massively.
He could hack the voting machines and change the results. The CIA said it is possible.
Or he could try for something more spectacular.
Putin could circulate fake medical records for Hilary over the internet. Actually he may be doing that already.
He could hack into the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ, and cause a crash.
He could hack into individual companies like General Motors and General Electric.
He would love to hack into the Obamacare websites during the upcoming enrolment periods. Given that one of the main health insurers, Aetna, announced a decision to pull out of Obamacare because the Justice Department vetoed a proposed merger, all it will take is one well timed and well-hidden cyber-attack to remind voters of the disastrous debut in 2013. It will be his goodbye present to Obama.
He could cause a crash in the bond markets as he allegedly considered doing in 2008-2009, according to Bush’s last Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson.
Putin may or may not try something. But the risk is there and he has the motives. He hates Obama, he hates America, he wants to return to the Cold War, he wants to re-establish the Russian Empire, he wants to wreck the West, and HE HATES HILARY.