Ukraine: between rock and hard place

Reserved.

My 2 cents: nope, impossible. To be part of the EU, the Ukraine have to implement laws to protect human rights and freedom of speech and travel, which don't jive well with the Russian semi-dictators. Those laws will make it impossible for Ukraine to become an integrated part of a new Russian empire.

I live in Slovakia and the situation there concerns me. Really do not wish to have a civil war in the neighbouring country.

It will be a long slow process, but Ukraine will gravitate towards EU. EU offers more freedom, opportunities and less of the old way. Just my guess. I have been a lot to Lithuania (I am Norwegian), but never to Ukraine

Russia has merely experienced a period of growth brought on by higher resource and gas prices, mainly because of a rising China. Their attempt to create a Ex Soviet Economic Sphere is a response to their fear of becoming a Chinese satellite state that exists merely to supply them with raw materials. Russia is not in anyway shape or form creating an empire. Russia likes to claim it is a great power but it is being eclipsed in every way by it's neighbor China. The main thing motivating Russia and Putin is fear and uncertainty about it's place in the world not ambition.

While in theory the EU and Russia could come to a agreement about Ukraine where they both get what they want I don't see it happening because both will prioritize exporting their type of government, as other have said.

The future is very uncertain right now. Many economies and governments right now seem delicate. We could easily see some or none collapse, although I have no idea which. So discounting any possible economic shocks the future of Ukraine seems tied to how much effort the EU can muster to fight Russia diplomatically for it. The EU is a bureaucratic behemoth though so all it's members may never even get around to discussing it, which will mean Russia will prop up the local strong man until they anger enough people for a revolt. 

Best mate's old man was Ukranian....spent several years in a German labour camp [pow] in WW2.  Came out to Oz after the war....married a German whose 'claim to fame' was handing Hitler a flower in one of his rallies......

Life is strange....;p

Politics....

-Better leave this one too.

Yes, this is very much the current situation for Russia.  While Putin is Russia's strongman, and he rules it with an iron fist, Russia is very much a depleted state that is struggling to maintain its place among 1st world leaders.  Unfortunately for Russia, a powerful underworld comprising of local leaders and crime lords, former KGB and soviet officials has emerged and become a sub-culture that Putin has little or no influence or control over. 

Yes, Putin and Russia may still beat their chests and have the power of Veto in the UN, but neither are taken as seriously as they may once have been because this sub-culture, often referred to as the Russian Mafia, prevents solidarity and a united front. In other words, Russia is a fragmented state with lots of bark but not enough bite to back it up.

Starkers, you're forgetting that Russia has a huge nuclear arsenal, enough to destroy everyone on the planet. It also has a very large military industry. It supplies lots of energy to Europe (and the Ukraine).

Those things give Russia a very large bargaining chip.

Nuclear arsenals are overrated...just ask North Korea how that "bargaining chip" is working out for them...

You think it's coincidence that all nuclear (super)powers have veto rights in the UN ?

USA, Russia, China, France, the UK all have sizeable arsenals and ICBMs to deliver their weapons anywhere on the planet. They all have fusion bombs which are powerful enough to destroy a city of several millions of people with a single blow.

GeomanNL, you are confusing economic and/or trade issues with warmongering.  Given the potential for genocide, retaliative strikes, none of those nuclear nations are game to launch nuclear weapons.  Those stockpiles serve more as deterrents against lesser powers than genuine threats towards similarly equipped nations.

So, given the topic is about the Ukraine's need to align economically with either the EU or Russia or both, so how about leaving out the military crap, hey?

Ok, sure, but you should realize that the EU is much more than just an economic block, it goes far beyond economics.

The original thought about the EU wasn't economics: it was about preventing wars within Europe. Former enemies would work together, instead of fighting each other.

It's not simply a free-trade agreement that we're talking about here.

In this thread it is.... well it was until you started on about nukes and war crap

Ok, fine.

Imho the best thing for the Ukraine is NOT to join the EU, but to go for something like a free trade agreement with the EU.

In that way they don't piss off their big neighboor and they don't upset the Russian minority in their country.

It's been only 25 years since the end of the cold war and things are still tense. They can wait another 25 years and see how things develop.

The EU isn't that old yet either. Imho it needs some more time to mature, maybe another 25 years or so. The EU might collapse within that time, if there another few crises. The UK is about to leave the EU, what consequences will that have?

I think patience is the key. There's enough time, just hold your breath.

How convenient that you had to throw in the word "super"...a word which has completely arbitrary meaning "defined" solely by you...

There are 8 nuclear powers...5 are veto members, 3 are not (India, Pakistan, and North Korea)...some would argue that Israel would make a 4th, which means that you really can't make the case that nuclear weapons makes for veto power...

Even without that mathematical exercise, it is blatantly obvious your argument has no substantiation....the U.N. was established in 1945, and at that point the only nation that had tested a nuclear weapon was the US....the soviets tested theirs in 1949, and France and China didn't test till the 1960s...in other words, when the permanent members of the Security Counsel were determined, most of them did not have nuclear weapons...not only that, 2 of the members were more than a decade away from getting them, so clearly having "nuclear capabilities" really was not relevant to getting a permanent seat...

Having a nuclear arsenal really isn't even relevant to this discussion....

Hey Andy, pass that popcorn. 

Ok getting sidetracked again, excuse me.

In the 60s, the UK and France still had a status as colonial powers.

Nowadays, what are those countries really... economically they're a mess. Their colonies are tiny, just a few specks in the ocean. Their populations are meaningless compared to many other countries in the world. On almost all fronts they're being surpassed by the developing world. They only have their status as nuclear power to brag about. Imho it's the only reason they still have a permanent seat in the UN.

Imho India deserves a permanent seat in the UN much more than either the UK or France. I think India could easily demand such a seat if it wanted to.

India can demand all it likes, but all five permanent members would immediately veto the proposal just because under no circumstances do they want to dilute their own veto power by including another member with veto power.

Walking a fine line with 'Politics' here...in a Forum section where it's prohibited....;)

Jafo, if this is wrong, forum, I apologize.  Wasn't intended to be an outlaw thread.  PLEASE move it to appropriate forum/thread. 

Done...;)

'Politics - Current events' is more apt...;)

Well, you don't want the Ukraine to end up in something like the Russia–Georgia War, and the Ukraine government is probably being compelled by Russia, so to state the obvious, be careful resisting.

It is not a good idea to get singled out by any government for disobedience.

Having said that, anyone in the Ukraine who truly wants an independent Ukraine, and is willing to fight for that, should start here.

http://www.aeinstein.org/self-liberation/

Reality and Rules:
-Looking at this stuff over there will put you on a watch list. So don't get caught. *use proxies or whatever if you actually plan to go through and understand this material*
-Actually organizing this stuff will get you curb stomped and made an example of. You need to view yourself as expendable for the greater good of your nation.

It is a difficult time, youths in the Russian buffer states have easy access to information about how the world should be thanks to the internet. The reality is, the people who made Russia what it is today are still very alive and well, bitter, and watching everything you do online. Proceed with caution.