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What happened to Global Warming?

What happened to Global Warming?

What happened to Global Warming?

When I put my first above ground pool in around the late 90's we were able to open it in April and start swimming in May.

Now my pool is just opened and still not warm enough to swim in :(

 

I'd like some global warming back...

 

9,265,679 views 2,913 replies +1 Loading…
Reply #376 Top
Quoting psychoak, reply 371

He's referencing debunked studies because the idiots that did it actually disproved their own findings.  One group did an absolutely massive study on peer reviewed work, the gold standard you yahoos always talk about in your diatribes whenever someone points out that the entire body of evidence has been doctored.

 

It was quite the impressive study, they went through an ungodly number of papers, and classified them by standing.  Conclusive in either direction, or non-conclusive.  Of the ones they determined to be conclusive, they then contacted the actual writers to verify their opinions.  At the end of this, they threw out everything that wasn't conclusive, which just happened to be nearly every paper they checked.

End of psychoak's quote

 

Which debunked study are you and he referring to? The Oregon Petition?

Reply #377 Top

Quoting psychoak, reply 375
This entire thread is related to government action.  Governments pay for the research claiming we're all going to die if it gets a little warmer, and that it's our fault.  Governments keep the records that say the earth is(was, currently) getting warmer that the research is based on.  Governments make the decisions that cost us vast sums of money to pay for pet projects that are supposedly going to help solve the problem.

 

Government is a central player in every possible course this topic can go without sticking to whether the pool is open.  Calling out a single reply for linking a news article is a more politically driven post than most of what's in this thread.
End of psychoak's quote

 

OMG OMG OMG  8(|

You said government four times!

FOR SHAME  :hrmph:   

Please refrain from edumacating people and post cats flushing toilets 

Reply #378 Top

If you read the thread, you'd know which study was being referred to.  I'm okay with regurgitating information a few times over in threads, but this particular subtopic came up repeatedly already and there are numerous links throughout the multiple discussions on it.

 

It's entertaining stuff anyway, you shouldn't be skipping to the last page in a months old thread.

Reply #379 Top

Quoting psychoak, reply 375
Calling out a single reply for linking a news article
End of psychoak's quote

Nothing wrong with the posted link. Calling out a particular government leader and government is and can lead the post to finger pointing certain governments real or imagined complicity which is not allowed in this section. If the commentator wishes he can use JoeUser for this. 

Reply #380 Top

Quoting psychoak, reply 378

If you read the thread, you'd know which study was being referred to.  I'm okay with regurgitating information a few times over in threads, but this particular subtopic came up repeatedly already and there are numerous links throughout the multiple discussions on it.

 

It's entertaining stuff anyway, you shouldn't be skipping to the last page in a months old thread.
End of psychoak's quote

 

I have actually replied to your posts directly in the past and in the last few days.

 

I just wanted to make sure you were not referring the the TOTALLY debunked Oregon Petition, which has been shown to be complete nonsense, to the point that the person who organized the "petition" couldn't explain how is favorite Spice Girl, Geri Hollaway, happened to sign the petition.

Reply #381 Top

http://skepticalscience.com/97-percent-consensus-cook-et-al-2013.html

 

I was bored, I did a google search.  Basically, they asked if Humans have cause some global warming, then mislabeled everyone's papers based on their responses.  This is an obvious question, and I'm surprised anyone could seriously answer no.  Urban amplification alone means we obviously contribute to the temperature, then there's deforestation.  Take AGW out of the picture entirely and you'd get near 100% yes responses on that.

 

The blowback on this wonderful study was swift and merciless, they classified noted skeptic works as proponents just to make themselves look extra crooked.  The study itself is self debunking even if you pretend it's perfectly accurate.  There's no argument, yet they can only classify a portion of the studies as most of them aren't for or against the theory.

 

It got hilarious fast.  There are some very entertaining pages back there.

Reply #382 Top

Quoting psychoak, reply 381

http://skepticalscience.com/97-percent-consensus-cook-et-al-2013.html

 

I was bored, I did a google search.  Basically, they asked if Humans have cause some global warming, then mislabeled everyone's papers based on their responses.  This is an obvious question, and I'm surprised anyone could seriously answer no.  Urban amplification alone means we obviously contribute to the temperature, then there's deforestation.  Take AGW out of the picture entirely and you'd get near 100% yes responses on that.

 

The blowback on this wonderful study was swift and merciless, they classified noted skeptic works as proponents just to make themselves look extra crooked.  The study itself is self debunking even if you pretend it's perfectly accurate.  There's no argument, yet they can only classify a portion of the studies as most of them aren't for or against the theory.

 

It got hilarious fast.  There are some very entertaining pages back there.
End of psychoak's quote

 

I looked at the link you posted. I then Googled the authors name of the "97% study" (his first and last names were listed in the article). I ehn found an article in Forbes by James Taylor. http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2013/05/30/global-warming-alarmists-caught-doctoring-97-percent-consensus-claims/

I then clicked the link in the article that links to the "investigative journalist's" website. I looked at his name...when I saw what he listed as his name, I stopped reading. If he, as a professional, cannot stand behind his words, why should I believe them?

Reply #383 Top

Perhaps you could read the actual study and verify the information yourself?  Both the study and the source you jumped at to avoid having to read it are excellently documented.  The material is readily available for your perusal.  It's a simple matter to look at positively classified papers written by skeptics that got a magic proponent label.

 

Regardless, if they classified every paper accurately they're still lying when they claim 97% support.  Two thirds undecided is not 97% support.  Go ahead, assume the guy lied because he only uses his first name on a blog.

Reply #384 Top

Quoting psychoak, reply 383

Perhaps you could read the actual study and verify the information yourself?  Both the study and the source you jumped at to avoid having to read it are excellently documented.  The material is readily available for your perusal.  It's a simple matter to look at positively classified papers written by skeptics that got a magic proponent label.

 

Regardless, if they classified every paper accurately they're still lying when they claim 97% support.  Two thirds undecided is not 97% support.  Go ahead, assume the guy lied because he only uses his first name on a blog.
End of psychoak's quote

 

Perhaps you could look at the very long list I posted in post #348 which lists over 50 scientific societies that agree that warming is due to humans...and the summary of the IPCC as well.

 

If he won't stand behind his words, why should I believe him? I see no compelling argument to do so. To go back and check his work would require that I feel his work has information that would prove useful. What is his pedigree to even conduct a study like this?

 

If I said " "Fred" feels that humans have increased carbon dioxide emissions over the last 50 years", would you say "Oh well, I don't need anymore evidence because Fred says humans are causing the world to become warmer"? I think not. Why? You know why.

Reply #385 Top

Quoting flagyl, reply 384
Perhaps you could look at the very long list I posted in post #348 which lists over 50 scientific societies that agree that warming is due to humans
End of flagyl's quote

OK, I bit

I looked at the 1st one AAAS, they had many regular articles up to Aug 2012 then stopped. The last one was by  Alan I. Leshner who is a psychologist. WTF? And he quotes, as so many of these articles do, a panel of 'expert scientists', the magic panel of all know all seeing super beings that keep informing the panel of unnamed magical government 'authorities'.
http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2012/0801nc_climate.shtml 

 

American Astronomical Society

The requested page "/governance/resolutions.php%23climate" could not be found.

is what your link leads to. And what astronomers with telescopes know about climate science? Not one article on GW.

 

After doing a few more of those links, I gave up, as if they do include anything, it is someones OPed quoting this magical panel of expert scientists. Or how they want more money from the feds for research and 'policy making', the policies of course, are to give more money for 'more research' or do review papers and put this on the end

 

Review Panel
The Royal Society gratefully acknowledges the contribution of the independent panel of
reviewers. The review panel members were not asked to endorse the final document’s
conclusions.

Reply #386 Top

Quoting myfist0, reply 386


Quoting flagyl, reply 384Perhaps you could look at the very long list I posted in post #348 which lists over 50 scientific societies that agree that warming is due to humans

OK, I bit

I looked at the 1st one AAAS, they had many regular articles up to Aug 2012 then stopped. The last one was by  Alan I. Leshner who is a psychologist. WTF? And he quotes, as so many of these articles do, a panel of 'expert scientists', the magic panel of all know all seeing super beings that keep informing the panel of unnamed magical government 'authorities'.
http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2012/0801nc_climate.shtml 

 

American Astronomical Society


The requested page "/governance/resolutions.php%23climate" could not be found.


is what your link leads to. And what astronomers with telescopes know about climate science? Not one article on GW.

 

After doing a few more of those links, I gave up, as if they do include anything, it is someones OPed quoting this magical panel of expert scientists. Or how they want more money from the feds for research and 'policy making', the policies of course, are to give more money for 'more research' or do review papers and put this on the end


 

Review Panel
The Royal Society gratefully acknowledges the contribution of the independent panel of
reviewers. The review panel members were not asked to endorse the final document’s
conclusions.

End of myfist0's quote

 

Tsk tsk. You didn't bite hard enough.

 

You are right. The posted link to the AAS is broken.

 

But, if you had taken the time, as I did, to look in the upper right hand corner of the page, you could have used the search function and plugged in "climate change". You would have then found 25 hits with those search terms.

 

You could have also, you know, read my post, because I copied and pasted their statement in post #385. It's right there. Go back and check...or not.

 

And to clarify, they are NOT op-ed articles. They are statements by SCIENTIFIC societies and academies that state that, as a unified body and in their EXPERT opinion, climate change is caused by humans. That is, they are willing to base their professional reputations on this opinion.

 

What do astronomers have to do with climate change? Uhhh...they study the climates of other planets. Like Jupiter and Mars.

 

If you are making the charge that they are op-ed pieces, show proof.

Reply #387 Top

Quoting flagyl, reply 387
That is, they are willing to base their professional reputations on this opinion.
End of flagyl's quote

Now, there's a big whup.

Methinks it would be better if they worried about basing their professional reputations on the quality of their research, contra their 'opinions'.

Reply #388 Top

Quoting Daiwa, reply 388


Quoting flagyl, reply 387That is, they are willing to base their professional reputations on this opinion.

Now, there's a big whup.

Methinks it would be better if they worried about basing their professional reputations on the quality of their research, contra their 'opinions'.
End of Daiwa's quote

 

Did you read the IPCC's summary released on the 27th? Did you see how they took the time to quantify the degree of consensus and the quality of the research? I thinks they already are.

 

Here are the first and second footnotes from WGIAR5. You'll see that they attempt to describe the quality of the data they are using and the probability that various outcomes will occur.

 

1 In this Summary for Policymakers, the following summary terms are used to describe the available
evidence: limited, medium, or robust; and for the degree of agreement: low, medium, or high. A level of
confidence is expressed using five qualifiers: very low, low, medium, high, and very high, and typeset in
italics, e.g., medium confidence. For a given evidence and agreement statement, different confidence levels
can be assigned, but increasing levels of evidence and degrees of agreement are correlated with increasing
confidence (see Chapter 1 and Box TS.1 for more details).
2 In this Summary for Policymakers, the following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood
of an outcome or a result: virtually certain 99–100% probability, very likely 90–100%, likely 66–100%, about
as likely as not 33–66%, unlikely 0–33%, very unlikely 0–10%, exceptionally unlikely 0–1%. Additional terms
(extremely likely: 95–100%, more likely than not >50–100%, and extremely unlikely 0–5%) may also be used
when appropriate. Assessed likelihood is typeset in italics, e.g., very likely (see Chapter 1 and Box TS.1 for
more details).

Reply #389 Top

Quoting flagyl, reply 388
In this Summary for Policymakers
End of flagyl's quote

There's the rub, right there.

Reply #390 Top

As I said on the last page, you're equating lobbyists with scientists.  Many of those organizations aren't even lobbyist organizations, but direct government entities.  In either case they are beholden to the people in power.

 

Geological Association X is like the AMA, or the AARP.  Retired people don't necessarily share the opinions of the AARP, doctors don't necessarily share the opinions of the AMA.  Most of their members don't even pay attention to what positions they're backing.  Not all of them are members to begin with, the only use most of them get from being a member is hanging the certificate up in their office saying they belong to association whatever.  People in scientific fields collect them like flies, and they typically have little bearing outside of decoration.

 

When you list supporting lobbyists as proof of widespread support among scientists for a political position, you're implying that lobbyists for research funding would do anything besides support the position that gets them research grants.  Their sole purpose in life is to get money out of the various legislatures around the world, for purposes of growing their membership by showing their use to the scientists they get grants for.

 

The people in power are pro AGW because they need reasons to control activities without being removed, they won't be lining up grants for organizations that balk them.

Reply #391 Top

A society of geologists are lobbyists?

 

Redefine "scientist" as "lobbyist" and then you can dismiss anything they say as an attempt to manipulate policy. The trick, of course, is to convince someone that a scientist is a lobbyist (without any proof, of course...just a strawman attack).

 

I'm sure that line of reasoning is effective, depending on the target that one is trying to manipulate. That's why it is used so often.

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Reply #392 Top

You obviously haven't looked into the activities they undertake.

 

ANGA is a lobbyist organization, so is the IPAA.  Any environmentalist worth a damn will tell you what terrible organizations they are, spending their money corrupting D.C. with their evil oil mongering ways.  ANGA is America's Natural Gas Association, IPAA is the Independent Petroleum Association of America.

 

They're associations, just like the AMS or the GSA.  They have a large contingent of lobbyists working out of an office in D.C. that do nothing but wheedle money out of congress.  The AMS works from 1200 NY Ave NW, just a little off from Capitol Hill.  There are dozens of lobbyist organizations working out of that building, much of your list is there.  The Council of Non-Profits is headquartered in that building, so is the Center for Lobbying in the Public Interest.

 

They trade favors, illegally on occasion, in return for support for their organizations.  They fund lobbying efforts from their membership dues, in order to increase membership or obtain other methods of income.  Grants get them a nice dollar sign to send out with their yearly statements.  Look at how much money congress gave you this year!  What the grant is for is irrelevant, if the people in congress wanted to give the AMS grants to study MLP, they'd do what they needed to get them.  Some poor bastard with no self respect would stop paying attention to the weather and start surveying brony's instead.

 

They are not altruistic, they may not even serve the interests of their members.  The AMA barely pays lip service to theirs.  They get their real power from being sole owners of the medical billing codes the entire country is required to pay them for.  Doctors are fleeing medicine in droves, but they stand behind that disaster of a health care bill as if it were going to make them all rich.

 

You think of them as societies of scientists, but that's like saying the US congress actually represents the people.  Most don't even vote, nearly half that voted did so for the other guy, and the ones that did vote for them probably would have preferred almost anyone else to the corrupt pieces of crap they had a choice in.

Reply #393 Top

Quoting Krazikarl, reply 364
You mean the petition that was signed by "Britney Spears"..multiple times?
End of Krazikarl's quote

Actually no.  Britney spears name does not appear on the Oregon petition.

 

Please stick to the facts.  Trotting out tired and false accusations because you do not like a source is not debating.  It is screeching.

Reply #394 Top

Quoting flagyl, reply 365
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_Petition#Criticism
End of flagyl's quote

William Connelly.

 

Reply #395 Top

Quoting flagyl, reply 366
(I presented you with the position statements of SCIENTIFIC associations. organizations and academies. Not Forbes and opinion articles).
End of flagyl's quote

No,

So did I,  Science organizations are not data, nor research.  nor do they create one or do the other.

If you bother to check the links you will find them all sourced to the appropriate papers.  I suggest you check the links before you dismiss them.   It is easier to link to one article that contains multiple links than to link to each one separately.

Reply #396 Top

Quoting Krazikarl, reply 367

From what I can tell, he is spamming a bunch of links debunking a study that I never cited anywhere (the 97% thing).  But since he can't deal with the argument that I am actually making (basically IPCC plus national academics of science and other organizations), he is moving the goalposts to the argument that he thinks he can actually debunk.
End of Krazikarl's quote

No, I am showing you that you are wrong.  You stated that it was the vast majority of scientists.  I am showing you it is not.  And also backing up my statement with scientific data.

 

That is how it is supposed to be done.  I am sorry you think it is spam.  It is actually educational for most people.

 

Quoting Ekko_Tek, reply 368
Yes it is. It's 0.3% of all science graduates. That list has 39 who are climate scientists.
End of Ekko_Tek's quote

Actually it has 0 climate scientists.  But then none of the other sources have any climate scientists either.  Flagyl's list contains geologists, physicists, meteorologists, and a whole bunch of other ists.  But no Climate Scientists (as apparently defined by you).

Let us look at the leaders of the movement.  Michael Mann.  Does he have a CS degree?  Nope.  Phil Jones?  Nope. Pachauri?  Nope.  Trenberth?  Nope.  Briffa?  Nope.  Amman?  Nope. Cook?  nope. Nuccitelli?  Nope. Schmidt? Nope

Indeed, if you canvas all the universities in the world, you will find only a half dozen offering degrees in Climate science, and none of the authors have such a degree.

But that is all non sequitur, since the issue was "scientists" (read the challenge) and not "climate scientists".  I am merely providing proof that indeed, the supposed consensus is total bunk.  Science is not about consensus.  It is about discerning the truth.  Consensus would have us believe the earth was flat, phlogiston is the element that creates fire, and aether is what we breath.  heretics are the ones that found the earth was round, fire is simply a chemical process, and the atmosphere is comprised of 2 primary gases.

Reply #397 Top

Quoting flagyl, reply 388
Did you read the IPCC's summary released on the 27th? Did you see how they took the time to quantify the degree of consensus and the quality of the research? I thinks they already are.
End of flagyl's quote

Sure did!  But then the scientist in me got my spider senses tingling.

What is the basis for their certainty?  They offered no supporting data, no qualifying degree.  Nothing.  If you read it, there is nothing there.  Nothing to support what amounts to an opinion.

Last I checked, science does not work that way. But YMMV.

Reply #398 Top

Ooh, ooh!  I know that one!

 

Methane and Oxygen!

Reply #399 Top

Just live as long as you can and have fun with what ever it is you do in life. If the world is going to end in our life time nothing much we can do about with the technology we have at this point. Not any reason to hide from something you can't stop.

Reply #400 Top

Quoting Dr, reply 396
and none of the authors have such a degree.
End of Dr's quote

The 'science' of grammar would have you say 'and none of the authors has such a degree'.

'none' is a contraction of 'not one' so is singular - in spite of 'authors' being plural .... JAFOCHECK ...;)