A little bit? lol, I don't think you understand what the Golf current does.. It raises the temperature of vast territories in Europe.. And by several degrees. And if it is stopped, well, you can guess what will happen.
Is several degrees that much during winter?
I don't think much will happen. Winters will get a few degrees colder, summers won't make much of a difference. But we already have warmer winters than 100 years ago. At worst we'll get back to pre-industrial winters. Maybe I can skate again in the winter!!! That's been a while ago!!! Well actually there was a cold 2 months last year, but it wasn't as cold as 30 years ago when I was young and could skate on the big canal in winter during my birthdays.
The mechanism for stopping the Gulf Stream is a large influx of melt-water, but there are not many reservoirs for melt-water around anymore, there's really only the Greenland ice-sheet and compared to ice-age ice-sheets that one is very, very small. Also, it won't melt all at once or will it? Will that really stop the Gulf Stream?
Also consider that the summer time melting of the arctic sea-based ice-shelf didn't stop the Gulf Stream, while that accounts for a lot of sweet water.
And finally, I doubt it'll start an ice age. The European ice-sheets were an extension from huuuuge ice-sheets in Siberia. There are no such ice-sheets. The summers are too warm for ice to persist. We're only witnessing more and more retreat of ice and permafrost.
That goes contrary to an ice age. I think that an ice age can only start when temperatures are already abnormally low in the northern hemisphere, so that ice sheets can form in Siberia and Canada. When the Gulf Stream stops, it could help form large ice-sheets in Europe and over the North Sea. But the circumstances are no favorable for such a set of events.
After all... a winter in Siberia can have temperatures of -60 degrees celcius in some parts. It is very cold and cold air can carry little moisture (in the form of snow), so every year little ice accumulates. Maybe a few meters at best. In the summer temperatures are 20 degrees or even higher. A few meters of ice are easily melted away in those circumstances. It is very hard to have hundreds of years of sustained cold weather to create a thick layer of ice that can create its own self-maintaining cold climate.
Nothing will be done at this point, it fell apart ten years ago and you just haven't noticed yet.
Is hasn't, really. It's just a freak set of circumstances that would normally have led to even LOWER temperatures than we experience today.
Also, the effect of the El Nino is something that's having a cooling effect at the surface of the earth. It transports warmer water down and colder water up. As a result the temperature deeper in the ocean RISES. As a result, there's still a consistent trend of heating of the ocean during the last 15 years, which has NOT stopped but is just going on and on and on.
If you think ahead, what this means is that the NEXT El Nino will have less of a cooling effect, because the deeper waters are warmer than they used to be.
All of this is perfectly consistent with a pattern of global warming. You fail to take these things into account.
Really psychoak, a scientist tries to understand EVERYTHING before making a statement. That's really difficult (almost impossible) so I can understand that you don't do that... but at least give it a serious try. Try to approach the problem from every angle, use as many data as you can and DON'T limit yourself to a few incidents. To get a robus result, it's best to follow long-term trends or averages, so that you don't get sidetracked by freak combinations of factors (on long term those cancel out, but on short term they can give noisy spikes in data).
For christ sake, look at satellite images about huge clouds of smog hanging over China, crossing the Pacific and creating smog in places like LA. If you call that part of natural fluctuations and negligible or whatever you call it ... well I just don't know what normal is in your dictionary. It's a fucking huge event that's there to stay as long as billions of people keep pumping all kinds of waste products into the air. When India, Indonesia etcetera (which have significant coal reserves) follow suit, those clouds will only get bigger and bigger.
Actually that smog helps to keep the planet cooler than it otherwise would've been... and it might even help the formation of clouds by supplying many condensation cores. What some researchers suspect is that, as soon as those coal plants get "cleaner", the world will instantly warm up by a fraction of a degree. Actually cleaner coal plants require more coal because it costs energy to clean up the exhaust fumes.