Windows 8 Slipping Behind Vista in Uptake Rate

from JoeUser Forums

 

Interesting article at infopackets. Apparently folks are showing a reluctance to upgrade to W8.

W8’s share of all Windows PC’s is about 2.5%, which was up from 1.9% in 12/2012. When RT is added, it becomes 2.6%.

Three months after Vista became available, it’s uptake rate was 3.3%.

Even worse, W8’s month by month growth has slowed significantly, per infopackets (based on an article in Computerworld.nz), although the week-to-week shows a very modest gain of 2.7% vs. 2.2 and 2.4%. To be fair, this could be part of a post Christmas slow down.

Still MS claims it sold 60 million W8 licenses. That doesn’t mean however, that all those licenses are currently being used on PCs.

When compared to Windows 7, the difference becomes even more glaring: After 3 months, W7 had captured 8.2% of all Windows PC’s. Here’s where it becomes interesting, because MS claims that

“the sales of W8 licenses have matched those of W7 at the same point.” - http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9235477/Microsoft_Windows_8_passes_60M_licenses_sold

In the same breath they state that W8 computer availability was scarcer than they liked. Could this be part of the reason for the Dell deal I wrote of today?

This downward trend is apparently evident in England as well.

Please note that I couldn’t verify these numbers independently as Net Applications requires a paid subscription to do that.

Sources:

http://computerworld.co.nz/news.nsf/technology/windows-8s-usage-uptake-falls-further-behind-vistas

http://www.infopackets.com/news/business/microsoft/2013/20130205_uptake_rate_windows_8_slips_further_behind_vista.htm

60,155 views 21 replies
Reply #1 from WinCustomize Forums Top

This was inevitable, Microsoft should have known better, but they never listen. ;P

Reply #2 from WinCustomize Forums Top

I think the next few months should be telling... it could be a post holiday slowdown, but W8 was slow off the blocks as well.

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Reply #3 from JoeUser Forums Top

I'm sure there have been many like me who grabbed licenses at $40 as insurance and haven't installed it on anything (and may not).  So the 'real' rate of adoption may be even lower.

Reply #4 from WinCustomize Forums Top

Daiwa, you're correct... something I hadn't considered when talking about the number of licenses sold.

Reply #5 from WinCustomize Forums Top

I've been using Vista Ultimate on my desktop from day one. I only had to do a System Restore once. I went to Best Buy to see W8 in action. I spent an hour playing on one of their computers and decided there was that it was a horrible design. I ordered W7 from Newegg just in case my Vista shut down on me or if I have to get a new computer with W8 on it. If you buy a computer from HP they give you an option for W7 OS or W8.

Reply #6 from WinCustomize Forums Top

Like Doc said.....its just a matter of time. I'm going to wait and see and in the meantime....its me and Win 7.

Reply #7 from WinCustomize Forums Top

It's a hard statistic to judge by.  The economy is also many times worse than when Vista was released, and paying any amount of money to upgrade to a new OS is not an option for people.

 

Reply #8 from WinCustomize Forums Top

Quoting Island, reply 7
It's a hard statistic to judge by.  The economy is also many times worse than when Vista was released, and paying any amount of money to upgrade to a new OS is not an option for people.

 
End of Island's quote

This would have to be a prime consideration, not only for individals but businesses too. Had Vista or Win 7 been released in similar economic times it is conceivable that similar sales figures would have presented themselves.

Thing is, it's still early days and Win 8 and/or its successors will be around for a long time yet.

Reply #9 from WinCustomize Forums Top

No surprise really ... It's more important to have good sales on the tablet market.

Reply #10 from WinCustomize Forums Top

Quoting Island, reply 7
It's a hard statistic to judge by.  The economy is also many times worse than when Vista was released, and paying any amount of money to upgrade to a new OS is not an option for people.

 
End of Island's quote

I agree that it is difficult to judge by one statistic. Still, the trend isn't reassuring (at this point). Overall though, consumer electronics did very well during the holiday season, certainly when compared to 2011. How much that bleeds over to new OSs is conjecture.

"MasterCard—which bases its estimates on aggregate U.S. online retail sales transactions among more than 60,000 merchants in the MasterCard payment card network—notes that online retail spending rose by double-digit percentage increases during the last two weeks of November, and recorded 19 days when sales “easily cleared the $1 billion mark.” It notes that the peak online spending day of the season was Nov. 27, the Tuesday after Thanksgiving, with close to $1.5 billion in online sales, and that several peak spending days occurred between Dec. 10 and 14, when consumers spent an estimated $6.9 billion online. MasterCard adds that specialty apparel and consumer electronics showed particularly strong online sales during the 2012 holiday season, with each category doing more than 20% of their total sales online.... Store sales, by comparison, were weak, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index, which reported today that it estimates combined November and December 2012 store sales to rise 3.0% over the same period of 2011." - https://www.internetretailer.com/2012/12/26/mixed-messages-holiday-sales

 

It isn't easy to measure the economy...

"Consumer spending accounts for roughly 70 percent of US economic activity, making the holiday shopping season a big driver for the US economy. Traders at the stock market will likely be watching America’s spending in the coming weeks to see how strong or weak it is. The amount that people spend during the holiday season can be a strong indicator for how the country is recovering from the worst recession since the Great Depression."

http://www.inquisitr.com/410335/stock-market-today-indexes-soar-during-black-friday-shopping/

Consumer spending is a rough measure and it was up significantly. While not being an economist, I think it's fair to say that the economy was certainly improving over what it was from 2008-2011. Consumer electronics spending actually dropped 5-6% in the 2011 holiday period.

Apple pulled in almost 20% of consumer electronics sales this past holiday. (http://www.theverge.com/2012/2/13/2796086/npd-apple-us-consumer-electronics-retail-sales-2011). None of this is reassuring for MS.

As I said in the OP, I couldn't find actual (first source) statistics on sales by OS.

Since MS isn't pulling W8 anytime soon, time will tell. One thing which might help MS is Dell going private. That might stabilize the PC market a bit. I can't help but wonder if W8 will overcome the momentum Apple, etc. have.

Reply #11 from JoeUser Forums Top

Quoting Daiwa, reply 3
I'm sure there have been many like me who grabbed licenses at $40 as insurance and haven't installed it on anything (and may not).  So the 'real' rate of adoption may be even lower.
End of Daiwa's quote

True - but MS still has your $40.  I doubt they care whether you install it or not.

Reply #12 from JoeUser Forums Top

Quoting Dr, reply 11
I doubt they care whether you install it or not.
End of Dr's quote

I'm certain they don't. ;)

Reply #13 from WinCustomize Forums Top

Actually they do... If you choose not to, it will mean less business for their app store. 

Reply #14 from WinCustomize Forums Top

that's okay. i installed it and i'm enjoying it as my daily driver. there are no complaints coming from my place.

Reply #15 from JoeUser Forums Top

Quoting DrJBHL, reply 13
Actually they do... If you choose not to, it will mean less business for their app store.
End of DrJBHL's quote

You are actually quite right about that.

Forgot my own conviction that Win8 has been and will forever be all about the Microsoft Store.

Reply #16 from WinCustomize Forums Top

Quoting Daiwa, reply 15
Forgot my own conviction that Win8 has been and will forever be all about the Microsoft Store.
End of Daiwa's quote

Business model certainly is changing...

I wonder if instead of service packs they'll have point releases of the OS named after pussy cats ......that you purchase from the store.......

Reply #17 from JoeUser Forums Top

Lets face it they've been giving away Win 8 at 40 bucks. I was thinking about getting one before the deadline and decided not to. Imo its going to take more than a service pack to fix.

Reply #18 from Sins Forums Top

jafo, I suspect that m$ will NOT use feline names as another it business does use that exact type of name, perhaps they will use dogs or pigs names

harpo

 

Reply #19 from WinCustomize Forums Top

Quoting harpo99999, reply 18
jafo, I suspect that m$ will NOT use feline names as another it business does use that exact type of name, perhaps they will use dogs or pigs names

harpo

 
End of harpo99999's quote

I can see it now.....Windows 8.0 'Mongrel'......8.1 'Mutt' .... 8.2 'Cur' ..... 8.3 'Flea-bag' ....;)

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Reply #21 from Sins Forums Top

I think what we are really seeing is the demise of Dell.  They should have reinvented/reinvigorated themselves instead they are making a bad bet on Microsoft to solve their sales problem.  (They don't have a gambling problem they have a money problem. :rolleyes: )

Microsoft is going to force them to ship 8 on their systems.  My company works with about 600 IT departments in Western PA.  I don't know anybody falling all over themselves to put 8 in place.  And money is tight everywhere.  

Actually the money isn't tight it's just that the people who have it are loathe to share it with IT (or anyone).  I wish them well because I would hate to see all those people at Dell out of a job.  But I would advise them to start shopping their resume around now to beat the rush.