Nothing much changes.
Obama gets his second term. He'll lose Indiana, Nebraska #1, and North Carolina from 2008. I think after these three, Romney has a real shot at picking off Iowa, and one of Florida or Ohio, but not both. New Hampshire and Nevada are possible pick-ups, but at best, one of them break for him, but probably not both. He also won't get Virginia. Paul Ryan isn't helping him with Wisconsin. The three red states from 2008 that Obama got close in - Montana, Missouri, and Georgia - stay red.
Obama - 293. Maine (All), Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, District of Columbia, Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii.
Romney - 245. New Hampshire, West Virginia, North Carolina South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska (All), South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, Alaska.
I feel the least good about Florida, Iowa, and New Hampshire in Romney's column, and Nevada, Ohio, and Colorado in Obama's column. These are the six that it comes down to in November.
The Senate stays in Democrat hands, but gets tighter. I'm thinking GOP gains in MT, ND, and NE. Democrats pick-up in ME and MA. Baldwin is pulling away in WI, and I think she might keep in blue, but I'm not 100% on this one. Mack could still catch Nelson in Florida. The Independent could pick up Maine. Even if Thompson and Mack win, and King from Maine wins (likely caucuses with Democrats), the best the GOP can get here is a 50/50 split. And Biden is the tie-breaker, meaning it's still a Democrat Senate.
House stays Republican. Just looking at Realclearpolitics.com, even if the Democrats had a clean sweep of the "toss up" races, and Republicans only win the "Safe GOP," "Likely GOP," and "Leaning GOP" races, the GOP still has 229 seats, and 218 is majority. I doubt Democrats pull off a clean sweep. Just not likely.