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“Minority Report” - Has it arrived?

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“Minority Report” - Has it arrived?

from JoeUser Forums

I’m assuming you remember the Tom Cruise movie “Minority Report” in which a computer spits out a ball with a crime alert before the crime happens?

That computer was hooked up to three people who hallucinated the crime or read the future… whatever.

 

Turns out Santa Cruz, CA Police have a computer on which a program does just that, without the three clairvoyants

 

Nothing magical. The computer is updated daily, and “predicts” the crime type, time and location based on “patterns” from the data it analyzes.

The program was derived from one which predicts aftershocks following earthquakes.

 

So, does it work?  Yes. Crime is down 27% from last July’s figures.

Only one problem I see with all this:  The computer depends on what data is entered into it. It can’t “predict” crimes of a type not entered into it. This means all crimes have to be reported equally for the model to be closer to perfect, only they aren’t. It’s not the same as earthquakes and seismic detectors. So some crimes get a positive bias, and some a negative one. Some will be more looked for and some looked for less. Same as common or rare diseases, only they may not be so common nor so rare.

The police dispatched are by the area, time and told to look for crime of type “X”.  I’m not saying they won’t look for crime of type “Y”, but if that crime occurs at a different place and time, will anyone be there to see it? The police are citing the money saved using this method. That will lead to fewer police. Mark my words. That will lead to less data, because the data is collected by arrests and reports by police officers. So, the models will lose predictive value.

It also seems to me the criminals could predict the same thing now they know how the police predict things… after all, local papers report crimes, arrests and complaints. Compiling crimes of a certain type shouldn’t be too much harder than reading the paper. They don’t need super Cray computers. Simple statistics programs should be enough to show time and/or place clustering if the computer is told to do so. Heck, they wouldn’t necessarily even need a computer. All they’d need is a grid map of a given area, and a “cube” above it with one axis being number of crime “X” and the other being hour of the day.

Source:  http://www.infopackets.com/news/technology/science/2011/20110822_computer_program_predicts_crime_locations_offenses.htm

51,353 views 27 replies
Reply #26 from WinCustomize Forums Top

With or without pepperoni?

What am I asking? You order, HG will intercept it before it comes close to your place.  ;P

Reply #27 from WinCustomize Forums Top

Quoting DrJBHL, reply 24

Quoting Dr Guy, reply 23No matter how random we try to be, there is usually a pattern.

That is correct though finding the pattern might prove very difficult.
End of DrJBHL's quote

Exactly!  I worked briefly for the QLD Police Service in the Criminal Information Bureau, and I saw just how great a length criminals will go to to avoid detection.  There was this particular gang of house breakers who would use urban street directories, randomly open a page, and blindly stick a pin in it. They would survey the corresponding street and rob one house only, obviously the one they felt would reap the biggest/best gain.  Their robberies were so random and widespread it would have been near impossible to predict where they might strike next.  Why?  Because they not only robbed affluent areas but all areas of all types of people... working class to pensioners, they didn't care.

So how were they caught?  Chose the wrong house to burgle, that's how.  Unbeknown to them, the house belonged to a cop... and worse still, for them, he was at home when they wrongfully ascertained the house would be empty.  Let's just say that they weren't going to argue with his service revolver... and a call-in did the rest.

Anyhow, after many months of detective work, the cops managed to pin dozens of unsolved burglaries on them and hundreds of charges against then resulted in convictions against them all.  So how did the street directory thing come up?  A couple of 'em rolled over and confessed/did deals in the hope of getting reduced sentences/better treatment.

And why did I not stay in the job?  I couldn't stand the politics and buck passing.  No, I wasn't a cop... just a civilian attached to the police service.

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