Frogboy Frogboy

iPad definitely a threat to Windows

iPad definitely a threat to Windows

I’m going to write more about this shortly but having had my iPad for about 3 weeks I have to say that the iPad and other devices like it are going to murder large sections of the Windows based market.

335,439 views 154 replies
Reply #26 Top

Quoting OMG_Jongalt26, reply 22

Quoting LORD-ORION, reply 18I have lots of little apps on my iTouch.

It is convenient because I could not see them being practical on a laptop. My touch is so small that it's kind of like a primitive tricorder when you custom load it with the practical and productive stuff you need for work.

I do want an iPad to replace my iTouch's role, mainly for the bigger screen and books, so I can pull up technical data on demand.

So... Development at a desk with a Windows PC, maintenance in the field with iTouch/iPad.

Work on PC, consume content on iTouch. Yep, nail on the head.
 

Agreed. 

I would Love to see more of the Windows indie games developed for the ipad.  ie. World of Goo, Monkey Island etc. 

I won't sit at my computer and play those games (why bother when i have AAA titles, demigod etc)  but on this and other highly mobile platforms they become a lot of fun. 
End of OMG_Jongalt26's quote

Heh, I will open up Pew Pew land on my iTouch sometimes just for a distraction, and my wife is addicted to Rubehouse.

But you're right about some games not belonging on PC if I had the choice. I just got the Humble Indie Bundle (World of Goo, Aquaria, LuGaru, Gish and Penumbra) and I would prefer to have games like this on an iPad (when I get one) then on my PC.

My gaming break down looks like this

Fun little distractions - iTouch
Serious gaming on my PC (with exception to humble indie bundle, I wanted to see world of goo, and the price was right)
Drunken Wii party nights (wife's and my friends, alcohol and casual games are a great combo)

This reminds me, the wii shopping channel sucks. This should be a case study of how not to make an online store. :)
(had to get the new military madness, I've love that game since the TurboGrafx-16 days)

Reply #27 Top

I’m going to write more about this shortly but having had my iPad for about 3 weeks I have to say that the iPad and other devices like it are going to murder large sections of the Windows based market.

And as a Windows software developer, that doesn’t make me happy.

If you are producing “stuff” the Windows-centric world is still central.  But for everyone else who are consumers of content, these new devices are a huge threat.

It’s not the form factor per se. Not that it’s a “tablet”.  I’ll boil it down:

1. Instant on.  It just works. I want to check email, look at my schedule for the day, look at Facebook, view something on YouTube, check out some news headlines, or just watch a movie, the iPad (and future devices of its class) are just much more convenient.

I love my ThinkPad T400. But when I go to it, I have to pray whether it’ll come out of sleep. If it does come out of sleep, it’ll be slow. Maybe it will be out of batteries. Who knows. What I do know is that it’s far too slow as a consumer device.  Netbooks are even worse.  It seems like such a little thing – instant on. But it’s the difference between a DVR and a VCR in terms of leap of effective functionality.

2. Speed. Similar to #1, I can check my email, look at my various RSS feeds and scan my schedule in less than 30 seconds.  On a Windows based PC, I’d still be waiting for Outlook to get done doing its thing or dealing with some Windows update that came in during the night that rebooted my machine. (and yes, I know you can alter these settings but with Windows, Microsoft has made productivity the enemy and made all the defaults set to fight productivity). If I just want to check something out on Wikipedia or check a web page, nothing beats the speed of an iPad (or a future Android based tablet).

3. The App store.  I have downloaded (and paid for) a lot of $2.00 programs that are just amazing.  It’s not that you couldn't’t make these on the PC, it’s just that people would scream that it should be free.  And as a developer, I can tell you, I won’t spend time making stuff “for free” when I could be spending that time with my kids unless it’s a labor of love.  As a result, a lot of cool little programs are being made because developers can actually get paid for making cool stuff.

Now, some of these things apply to an iPod Touch or an Android mobile device or an iPhone. But the form factor (size of the device) are key here in terms of usability. 

The 3 things I mention here are so outshine the Windows PC experience that if Microsoft doesn’t get off its duff and start addressing them soon then I predict Windows will become purely a content creation device whose content is primarily consumed elsewhere.  There’s really no excuse that in 2010, Windows is in the shape its in (particularly with regard to instant on). 

The iPad is only the beginning.  Once Android devices and WebOS devices show up, it could spell the beginning of the end of Windows dominance.
End of quote

Watch a movie on the iPad? Convenient? Not on that small ass screen it's not :P. If it puts it on to a TV, then maybe, sure. Now that I said that, I'm breaking the rest of the reply down as I'm of "two minds" on the matter, plus a thought at the end you may or may not take seriously.

Thought One: Don't give up, Frogboy. Adapt. If need be, make a new branch of Stardock dedicated to making these little $2 Apps and bank on it. You could also just keep making the AWESOME things you make now for the PC. Make owning a PC Fun and Easy with Stardock products and make As Many of them as You Can. Some people, even though the market will be small, would buy a PC just so they could enjoy your PC products. I know because I bought my X-Box360 solely so I could play the few titles that don't cross over to the PC and the Wii. I only buy 4 or 5 X-Box360 games a year, sometimes a few more, or a few less. It's a "Niche". PC gaming or even using may come down to also being a "Niche", but it would be a niche YOU OWN. Don't give up the ghost. I have faith in your abilities and in Stardock and if you sold stock I'd be the first person in line with a hand-full of cash wanting to buy.

Thought Two: This might come off the wrong way so don't take it to sound bad, I don't mean it that way. Ask your-self, "Why do I Care?". Why do You care? You're already a Multi-Millionaire. You could sell off the company and Retire RIGHT NOW. I'm just guessing as I obviously have no idea what your personal finances are but I'm guessing you have enough that You, your kids, your Gran-kids, and possibly even your Great-Gran-Kids would NEVER have to work a day in their lives. Assuming the market doesn't crash completely you could bank the Millions and live quite comfortably on the interest Alone. What is the interest per month on 2 Million Dollars these days? A thousand dollars? Two thousand dollars? Let's just guess you have 5 Million dollars in the bank and the interest on that is $4,000 a month. If you can't live decently on $4,000 a month something is wrong with the way you live. I can live comfortably on $2,000 a month, still feed my-self, my wife, my pets, pay my rent, my bills, and even have money left over to buy a new game or two....on 2k a month. If PC's really do "Die Out" as far as the general consumer go you're set for life anyway. You said it your-self a few weeks ago in a reply to some-one here on these very forums "How many millions do I need exactly?". Remember that? Some of your employees might have to look for future employment, but you won't.

Final Thoughts: Like you said, if Microsoft doesn't get off their asses and do something soon, all us PC users are in for trouble in a few years time. Why wait on Microsoft. You have the Resources, You have the man-power working for you, You have the Knowledge in your staff.....Why don't you take Stardock into the OS Business? With all the things you make that change a OS, all the upgrade and features you integrate with your awesome software, isn't the next logical step to make a OS your-self? (by your-self I mean Stardock of course) Just in making the things you do you show that the general public is largely unhappy with how Windows works. Your Programs and Apps change that and people buy them up. People would buy a Stardock OS that uses all those features and more. Knowing the Awesomeness that is Stardock, I'm confident you could make a new Operating System that would make Windows look like a hole in the wall. Make the jump. You'd OWN that too.

All the best, Raven X

Reply #28 Top

I doubt these tablets, at least in their current state are much of a threat to a good ole full OSd desktop. They have instant on because it is only loading a very simple stripped down OS that have very limited usability. They're good for the stuff Frogboy describes, but to be a replacement for a full Win7 desktop(or even laptop) they have a long way to go. Maybe have to wait a few years for realistic cloud computing, then they wouldn't need to be much more than simple terminals.

Reply #29 Top

This quiet voice in the corner of the room is of the humble opinion that, moving forward, Apple's big competition is not Microsoft or Google, but Canonical.  Apple works because it's a hardware company, and it doesn't actually compete with Microsoft as directly as people think.  Sure, they want more market share vs. PCs, but they still run Microsoft software - Office, for example - on their computers.  On the other hand, Microsoft is a software company that simply sells their stuff to hardware developers.

Likewise, Google is a software company that makes all of its money on increasingly personalized and well-placed advertising.  Indeed, one might go so far as to call them an advertising company that happens to use web-based software to do it.

Canonical - maker of Ubuntu - is also a software company, but with a whole different model than Microsoft or Google, and an entirely more people-friendly and innovative approach than Apple.  Because Ubuntu is free, Canonical stands to make money from supporting large-scale implementations of their OS - for example, in school districts - in a way that is much more efficient than what traditional software OR hardware distributors can afford.  In the USA, especially, Canonical isn't making a lot of noise yet, but Ubuntu is increasingly popular worldwide.

As an Ubuntu user, I can say the only reason I still have Windows is gaming.  Everything else - and I mean everything - is better on Ubuntu.  I've also, professionally, spent a fair amount of time with Macs, and as cool as the iPad and such are, Apple's hardware-first mentality means that they often skimp terribly on software, and the user-experience is so bogged down in proprietary mumbo-jumbo that it's often difficult to do what you need to do.  On a netbook loaded with Ubuntu, on the other hand, you have almost all of the functionality for a fraction of the cost.

I know, Linux is not and never will be for everyone.  Some users don't want flexibility, value, or usability so much as they want an image.  But don't think that because Linux was hard to use in 2000 it still is.  I guarantee there are people at Apple cautioning against that mistake.

Reply #30 Top

Quoting Frogboy, reply 24

It's a zillion little things like this that slow down the Windows experience.  If I just want to quickly check the weather for this weekend on my laptop, I'm going to lose a couple minutes waiting to get it up and going (assuming it reconnects to my WiFi without having to mess with something).  By contrast the iPad (and presumably any of these light-OSs like Android and WebOS) I'd just pop it up in seconds.
End of Frogboy's quote

You, specially you, have no real defense for not running msconfing and taking most of those offending services and processes out of your startup (or your Tweak app, I think it allowed to change that too) :p (or getting another PDF reader...).

Reply #31 Top

I have never understood the 'it just works' argument.

I can do all of those things with windows and it 'just works', i think people tend to have a lot of crap installed.

The only thing that doesnt always just work in my experience are mutlplayer games with the whole routers, portforwarding, firewall bollocks.

Having said that nothing against apple, never needed one that's all.

Reply #32 Top

The only reason I use windows is because that is where the games are at. I don't see the iPad taking over the kind of gaming I expect even as it enters the gaming market. As for the average consumer that uses emails and uses word proc, maybe for them it would work. I am not sure. I haven't been an average consumer of PC type stuff for years.

Reply #33 Top

Good luck designing and rendering anything 3D on one or composing a 60 track musical masterpiece with a couple of dozen VST's on it.

As far as being always on, Does anyone actually shut their PC's down these days, I know I don't.

and who can forget this look into the future?  http://draginol.joeuser.com/article/168371/Why_Kindle_will_fail_as_a_device_succeed_as_a_format

Seems to me Kindle is still going strong. :)

If windows loses dominance before I'm 6 feet under I'll be highly shocked, hell, more than half the planet is still using and in a lot of cases, liking ...... Win XP.

 

Reply #34 Top

I mostly use my computer to write; thus, I type a lot of text everyday. I really don't see myself typing the entire chapters on touchscreen, I have enough trouble as it is with messages on my phone. Honestly, I think that iPad is just a toy, as elaborated and fashionable it would be. Most people would never need it, if only to show off or play around. Just my opinion, though :)

Reply #35 Top

As far as being always on, Does anyone actually shut their PC's down these days, I know I don't.
End of quote

Most people with laptops put them to sleep (not shut down, just putting the lid down).

Reply #36 Top

true, still the indictment was of Windows, which is also, if not more... PC based.

Reply #37 Top

Quoting LORD-ORION, reply 26

Quoting OMG_Jongalt26, reply 22
Quoting LORD-ORION, reply 18I have lots of little apps on my iTouch.


I won't sit at my computer and play those games (why bother when i have AAA titles, demigod etc)  but on this and other highly mobile platforms they become a lot of fun. 
Heh, I will open up Pew Pew land on my iTouch sometimes just for a distraction, and my wife is addicted to Rubehouse.

But you're right about some games not belonging on PC if I had the choice. I just got the Humble Indie Bundle (World of Goo, Aquaria, LuGaru, Gish and Penumbra) and I would prefer to have games like this on an iPad (when I get one) then on my PC.

My gaming break down looks like this

Fun little distractions - iTouch
Serious gaming on my PC (with exception to humble indie bundle, I wanted to see world of goo, and the price was right)
Drunken Wii party nights (wife's and my friends, alcohol and casual games are a great combo)

This reminds me, the wii shopping channel sucks. This should be a case study of how not to make an online store.
(had to get the new military madness, I've love that game since the TurboGrafx-16 days)
End of LORD-ORION's quote

 

I snagged the humble indie bundle as well.  I did play some Goo on my PC and thought it was/is a fantastic game.  A perfect game for the ipad :)  I doubt i will even install the others lol.

Wii is good drunk fun along with rockband!

 

 

Reply #38 Top

With no flash support I doubt the iPad will overtake Windows.

Reply #39 Top

Quoting VicenteC, reply 30

Quoting Frogboy, reply 24
It's a zillion little things like this that slow down the Windows experience.  If I just want to quickly check the weather for this weekend on my laptop, I'm going to lose a couple minutes waiting to get it up and going (assuming it reconnects to my WiFi without having to mess with something).  By contrast the iPad (and presumably any of these light-OSs like Android and WebOS) I'd just pop it up in seconds.


You, specially you, have no real defense for not running msconfing and taking most of those offending services and processes out of your startup (or your Tweak app, I think it allowed to change that too) (or getting another PDF reader...).
End of VicenteC's quote

I run msconfig all the time. I also have Startup Cop and TweakVista.

When I say "instant" on I mean just that. Instantaneous.  With a typical laptop, it has to "sleep" unless it's plugged in and bringing it out of sleep can take several seconds.  

Reply #40 Top

Quoting kona0197, reply 38
With no flash support I doubt the iPad will overtake Windows.
End of kona0197's quote

 

Sigh.

Why do i even bother to write these if people won't read. 

It is NOT about the iPad per se. It's about these devices using new, highly specialized OSes that focus on the main things digital consumers do.

For the production of content, a Windows based (or Mac or Linux) computer -- a traditional desktop, will be fine.

But for people just consuming stuff, these new devices are breathtakingly impressive. 

Anyone who knows my history knows I'm certainly not an Apple advocate.

Reply #41 Top

Well, i wont lie, would def. be cool to have one if for nothing else than to sit my ass in the bed and l e a r n.

Lord knows this chair gets old sometimes. x_x

Reply #42 Top

Quoting vStyler, reply 33
If windows loses dominance before I'm 6 feet under I'll be highly shocked, hell, more than half the planet is still using and in a lot of cases, liking ...... Win XP.
End of vStyler's quote

Is there a Windows OS dominance ?

Yes, at Desktop level, Windows OS is dominant at 91% ... at the Netbook level, it drop at 68% with Linux at 32% ... at the server level, Windows OS is at 41.59% , Linux at 41.02% and Unix at 5.54% ... at the mainframe level, Linux/Unix are at 85% ... at the supercomputer level, Linux is at 89.2% and windows 2008 only at 1% ...

This without speaking of the embedded OS integrated in numerous electronic device like Sat receiver, auto-radio, complex coffie machine, etc... who are mainly based on Linux...

Now, in these topic, some say that Linux is great because it is "free"... in fact, these "free" mean freedom ( by have the source code ) and not free of charge... by example, in shop, a boxed version of Mandriva, home edition is around the 70 euro ( you paid for the dvd, the book, the box but not the software )... a server edition from Red Hat is worth several thousand euro ( you pay for the professional support )...

Now, the iPad and any possible clone will never kill the desktop market... they are simply filling a niche market who was not existing before... now with mobility and internet everywhere, the tablet can come to live... Desktop computer have a quality who will make them a first choice for home... they are modular ( can make upgrade by changing one single piece of hardware, don't need to change the whole machine ) and can store a huge amount of data ( as today, i have more that 10 gb archive in my workstation, no way to put all this in my laptop or any tablet computer )...

And yes, like some have say, the iPad can be somehow limited in performance but these performance can be perfect for some specific application... by example, now, child who go to school need to transport some heavy bag with school books.... now, imagine all these books replaced by a iPad... more interesting, school book on iPad can be compared to Wikipedia VS paper encyclopedia... i mean live update... in fact, same the ecologist will be happy since it will save million of tree who was used for make the book... In this example, will it kill the Press industry ? No... the Press industry will adapt and create content for the school iPad...

Point is that tablet computer like the iPad are simply filling a hole and don't replace a other type of computer... they are very specific piece of hardware who can be perfect for a lot of thing... like my school book example... and laptop are not a alternative because they will use to much energy for the simple task to be a book...  

Reply #43 Top

Agreed that these kind of devices will take a large market share... I just don't want Apple to be dominant.. but I think it might be a little to late for that now. I guess I just don't like their company philosophy at all.. actually I think I just don't agree with it. It's probably why I can't get into any of their products.

Reply #44 Top

I find it interesting how people will reach as far as they do to rationalize and defend their platform when it's threatened by something new.

"Just use msconfig!"

"Who turns their PC off anyway?"

"Linux will rule the market!"

These and their related arguments are, in my opinion, completely missing the original points Brad makes in his article.  All of them basically talk about working to alter user behavior, or rely on some significant technical expertise to approximate the benefits the iPad just does out of the box.

The iPad is such a threat because it's just so damn easy.  It "just works" in a way that no Windows PC currently can.  It's a device that requires no training, no expertise, no manuals.  People who have never used a touch device can pick one up and within a minute or two be surfing the web, watching a video, playing a game.

It does all of this without requiring any change on the part of the user.  It doesn't involve a lot of waiting.  It's a unified, consistent experience.

Basically, the iPad is computing reaching for its potential.  It's forward looking.  Windows on the other hand is mired in the past.  It's built entirely around the PC concept that hasn't changed much in the last 20 years.

Reply #45 Top

In my personal opinion everything that has been written here depends solely on your perspective on the technology and the consumer market. 

There is no doubt that Frogboy has keen insights on both.

The consumer market is very broad and covers many demographics such as Gamers, power users, casual users, economics and lets not forget age of the user and many more categories.  Who is to say with clarity of vision as to what will actually happen tomorrow.  Also don't forget that there will always be the unknown factor, will a need be developed for the new technology that will make these changes necessary.

Okay, that's all I came up with when I took my shower this morning.

Have a great day everyone. :sun:

 

Reply #46 Top

Well, the hp quickweb Linux based OS on their netbooks and nettops will get you online in 30 seconds for 250 bucks with the cheapest model. Plus, you can multitask, they have usb, webcams, and sixty percent more powerful processors for a third the price...just don't understand why anyone would want an ipad. Besides, I personally can get to my email in a second or two from my android phone and I can see my fb notifications in 2 seconds so if speed is a factor...my cell phone is at least equal to the ipad in power!

 

Dell, hp, archos, nokia (hope they win that billion dollar suit against apple), and google all have slate style machines coming out in the coming months that will be cheaper and much more powerful. Even if you love apple you have to know that you're paying the early adopter tax buying a first gen product of theirs. The good thing about the ipad is not the ipad it is that now that apple has created a market where none existed it will be profitable for companies to make quality slates for a low price rather than the super expensive commercial products that have been around for years.

Reply #49 Top

Basically, the iPad is computing reaching for its potential. It's forward looking. Windows on the other hand is mired in the past. It's built entirely around the PC concept that hasn't changed much in the last 20 years.
End of quote

Very true, but in 2 or 3 years when the iPad fad has worn thin, or a new gadget is out, millions will still be turning on their PC's (and waiting for it to boot). Many people like hardware that they can diagnose and work on themselves if needed as well. We've seen it all come and go. Almost since it's creation Apple has been trying to sell the public, non upgradeable hardware. They want to sell you something new every year or two. I have two Desktop PC's on my home network (in addition to 3 laptops) one is is a 10 year old Pentium III the other is a 6 year old Pentium IV. Will the iPad have that kind of longevity? Doubtful, even Apple doesn't want that.

As another commenter mentioned, when you can get a laptop at a sub $300 price, a little wait time might not be a big deal. I'm not knocking the iPad, I like gadgets and they have their place, but until a device becomes more than just the flavor of the month, and has some staying power (Apple's iPod is their only product IMO that meets this goal).

Reply #50 Top

When I say "instant" on I mean just that. Instantaneous. With a typical laptop, it has to "sleep" unless it's plugged in and bringing it out of sleep can take several seconds.
End of quote

So ADHD wins again?

I don't see how getting shiny stuff on a screen a few seconds faster can be better than over all functionality.