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2004 Presidential Exit Polls

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2004 Presidential Exit Polls

A tale of two nations

from JoeUser Forums

So what we can learn from the exit polls? Well we can learn that there is a big difference between the typical Kerry supporter and the typical Bush supporter. It is the stark difference between the two that makes the nation so polarized.

Consider these exit poll results:

VOTE BY INCOME
BUSH
 KERRY
TOTAL
2004
2004
Less Than $50,000 (45%)
 44% 55%
$50,000 or More (55%)
 56% 43%

No surprise there.  Middle class and above people supported Bush overwhelmingly.  Those who pay little or no federal income taxes supported Kerry overwhelmingly.

ARE YOU A UNION MEMBER?
BUSH
 KERRY
TOTAL
2004
2004
Yes (14%)
 38% 61%
No (86%)
 54% 45%

What about union people? Those who didn't belong to a union supported Bush very strongly. Something to bear in mind next time one wants to paint Bush supporters as "Sheep" or "brain washed". Unions are, IMO, just as guilty as religious organizations into feeding propaganda to their members.

VOTE BY EDUCATION
BUSH
 KERRY
TOTAL
2004
2004
No High School (4%)
 49% 50%
H.S. Graduate (22%)
 52% 47%
Some College (32%)
 54% 46%
College Graduate (26%)
 52% 46%
Postgrad Study (16%)
 44% 55%

This is a stat I tend to like to bring up when I'm in a debate. Bush leads with those who graduate highschool and go to college. But Democrats tend to have their base amongst those who didn't graduate from high school and those who live in Academia.

VOTE BY CHURCH ATTENDANCE
BUSH
 KERRY
TOTAL
2004
2004
More Than Weekly (16%)
 64% 35%
Weekly (26%)
 58% 41%
Monthly (14%)
 50% 49%
A Few Times a Year (28%)
 45% 54%
Never (15%)
 36% 62%

This is where the Democrats can charge, correctly that the more religious you are, the more likely you are to vote for Bush. And it's true. 42% of Americans go to church once or more per week.

HAVE YOU EVER SERVED IN THE MILITARY?
BUSH
 KERRY
TOTAL
2004
2004
Yes (18%)
 57% 41%
No (82%)
 49% 50%

This should settle this issue once and for all. We had some people on our site trying to say that you should vote for Kerry to "support our troops".  People who have ever served in the military very much supported Bush over Kerry and actually lost amongst those who have never served. I think that says a lot.

ARE YOU MARRIED?
BUSH
 KERRY
TOTAL
2004
2004
Yes (63%)
 57% 42%
No (37%)
 40% 58%

Another key difference.  Basically, married people vote for Republicans. Single people vote for Democrats. And if you have children, the gap actually gets bigger. People who have children at all tend to vote Republican and people without children tend to vote for Democrats.

ARE YOU GAY, LESBIAN OR BISEXUAL?
BUSH
 KERRY
TOTAL
2004
2000
2004
Yes (4%)
 23%
-2
 77%
No (96%)
 53%
+3
 46%

Bush lost support amongst gays not surprisingly. I like this stat because I've seen many gay activists try to claim that one out of 10 people are gay. In reality, it's more like 1 out out of 30.

GUN OWNER IN HOUSEHOLD?
BUSH
 KERRY
TOTAL
2004
2004
Yes (41%)
 63% 36%
No (59%)
 43% 57%

People with guns really liked Bush. People without them really liked Kerry.

MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE
BUSH
 KERRY
TOTAL
2004
2004
Taxes (5%)
 57% 43%
Education (4%)
 26% 73%
Iraq (15%)
 26% 73%
Terrorism (19%)
 86% 14%
Economy/Jobs (20%)
 18% 80%
Moral Values (22%)
 80% 18%
Health Care (8%)
 23% 77%

Look at the moral values issue. Bush's strategy hinged on getting evangelical Christians out to vote. And it seems it worked. This strategy allowed Bush to win in Ohio and therefore the country.

Terrorism came in 3rd!

MOST IMPORTANT QUALITY
BUSH
 KERRY
TOTAL
2004
2004
Cares About People (9%)
 24% 75%
Religious Faith (8%)
 91% 8%
Honest/Trustworthy (11%)
 70% 29%
Strong Leader (17%)
 87% 12%
Intelligent (7%)
 9% 91%
Will Bring Change (24%)
 5% 95%
Clear Stand on Issue (17%)
 79% 20%

Those who care about intelligence as a factor in Presidents like Kerry. They were canceled out by those who want a religious man as President. The warm fuzzy people (cares) voted for Kerry. Those who like candid clear stands canceled them out. Those who care about honesty and strength in leadership voted for Bush. They were nearly canceled out by those who want change.

DECISION TO GO TO WAR IN IRAQ
BUSH
 KERRY
TOTAL
2004
2000
2004
Strongly Approve (29%)
 94%
n/a
 6%
Somewhat Approve (23%)
 75%
n/a
 24%
Somewhat Disapprove (15%)
 25%
n/a
 73%
Strongly Disapprove (31%)
 5%
n/a
 94%

And to fairly definitively answer this question, 52% of Americans support going into Iraq compared to only 46% who disapprove of going into Iraq. That's well outside the margin of error (in an exit poll that was already tilted a bit incorrectly in Kerry's favor based on the actual results). So yes, most Americans are glad we went into Iraq even though most people think things are going poorly.

VOTE IF ONLY BUSH AND KERRY WERE RUNNING
BUSH
 KERRY
TOTAL
2004
2004
Kerry (47%)
 1% 98%
Bush (51%)
 98% 2%
Would Not Have Voted (1%)
 29% 38%

BTW, this is the line that should have told people that something was wrong with the exit polls. At the start of the exit polls, if you multiply the % of women times the % of support and the same for men, you came out with a 52% 48% advantage for Kerry.  And yet here you have a fairly good prediction of the actual vote here.

ABORTION SHOULD BE...
BUSH
 KERRY
TOTAL
2004
2004
Always Legal (21%)
 25% 73%
Mostly Legal (34%)
 38% 61%
Mostly Illegal (26%)
 73% 26%
Always Illegal (16%)
 77% 22%

Here's another key survey.  55% of Americans think abortion should either be mostly legal or mostly illegal. For those who think abortion should always be legal no matter what, Kerry has a huge margin. On mostly legal it tightens up a bit.  But look at the pro-lifer side. Very solid for Bush.

POLICY TOWARD SAME-SEX COUPLES
BUSH
 KERRY
TOTAL
2004
2004
Legally Marry (25%)
 22% 77%
Civil Unions (35%)
 52% 47%
No Legal Recognition (37%)
 70% 29%

On those who believe that gays should be allowed to have civil unions, Bush won.  But those who think they should get to marry overwhelmingly support Kerry.

This is an interesting thing since the bulk of Kerry's base aren't married themselves. This is one of those "value" issues that get Republicans steamed. People who actually are married tend to be Republicans and they tend to want to keep marriage between men and women.  Kerry's most vocal base believe gays should get to be married but hey, they're not married themselves.

It falls into line with many other things that make Bush supporters suspicious of Kerry supporters. Kerry supporters, as we've seen, tend to pay a lot less in taxes, but hey, they want all kinds of government programs. Why should they care? They don't have to foot the bill.

And so we see the same pattern here. Kerry voters overwhelmingly support same sex marriage, why should they care? They're not married themselves so what's the big deal about marriage in the first place?

I fall in the civil union camp myself.  And those who believe gays should be able to have civil unions tended to support Bush. But look at the no legal recognition -- 37%. That's the biggest chunk and it was overwhelmingly for Bush just as the other side was for Kerry.

OSAMA BIN LADEN VIDEOTAPE
BUSH
 KERRY
TOTAL
2004
2004
Important (56%)
 50% 50%
Not Important (44%)
 56% 43%

The Osama tape turned out to not help Bush after all.

GOVERNMENT DO MORE TO SOLVE PROBLEMS?
BUSH
 KERRY
TOTAL
2004
2004
Yes (46%)
 33% 66%
No (49%)
 70% 29%

Another suspicion of conservatives conformed. Those who think the government can solve the world's problems tend to overwhelmingly support Kerry while those who don't think that vote for Bush.

This goes back to a discussion we had last week. Some people tried to argue that the south is full of racists and they support Bush and therefore Republicans are racist. But that's really a fairly lame analysis. 

Basically the south and west of the United States is a rural or at most suburban culture. They go for Republicans. The North East and the West coast tend to be more urban and so they tend to go for Democrats. Racism is not the issue. It's a cultural values issue that isn't related to race.

politics
13,048 views 38 replies
Reply #26 from WinCustomize Forums Top
How can a nation with such appalling drug problems, insane gun laws, the highest capitol crime rate of any nation, a health system that caters for only those with money, severe unemployment, little or no interest in housing for the 'underclass' and a sub-standard education system fall into the same trap as four years ago.

This horrible Country seems to be not all that bad as more people are trying to become citizens than any other country in the World. I think the UN needs to clean up It’s act and then we might not have to sacrifice our young people and National Treasure trying to help the World become a better place. And oh by the way, a 5% unemployment rate is better than the abject poverty most Nations seem to enjoy! No person in the World receives better Health Care, Rich or Poor!
Reply #27 from JoeUser Forums Top

Reply #25 By: COL Gene - 11/4/2004 8:31:27 AM
The best snow job is for the people over $50,000 income voting for Bush 56% for Bush and 43% for Kerry. The truth is that the Bush policies do not benefit MOST Americans than earn under $200,000. There were some tax cuts for middle income Americans that have children under 18 or where both adults work (marriage penalty) However, when you consider the totallity of the Bush policies, this economic group is not being helped.

First, only the middle income taxpayer with children and/or where both adults work received a real tax cut and the amount was not great.

Job growth and the quality of jobs does not help the middle income group.

The elimination of the Death Tax is of NO Help.

The lack of control over medical and drug costs are not good for the middle income worker.

The loss or reduction in benefits for many workers is not good.

The future liability the higher debt will impose on the faderal budget will not help.

Solutions to the funding problems for Social Security and Medicare do not help.

The energy policy of Bush is making the life of middle income and the poor very hard. Nothing Bush has proposed will help them.

ON Balance, voters were snowed by Bush on what his tax and economic policies will do for them. They will learn the hard way!


Okay boys and girls the party is offically over! Kerry has tossed in the towel. He knew there was no way to pull it out. You were warned that this would happen. Daschel is also gone (this is a big relief). The republicans now control the presidency, the senate, the house of Reps., a majority of the governerships and more than likely the supreme court on top of that very soon. I will not be jerking anyones chain about this other than this particular post. The one major thing I don't want, is to listen to the Bush haters (you know who you are. I don't think I need to name names do I?) whine and complain for the next 4 years. Bush has pulled more popular votes than any president has in a loooong time! So he not only pulled the EC, he pulled the popular vote also. That is *clearly* a mandate no matter how you spin it. What we need to do now is pull together behind our president and heal our divided country. Hopefully he will listen to us this term.
Star Control: Origins
Reply #28 from JoeUser Forums Top
Mmm, from most of the blogs I've read so far, (and according to this much-detailed poll, this really spelt it out), most republicans believe that democrats: don't earn a lot of money; belongs to a union; don't have an high school education; don't attend church; never served in the military; aren't married or/ they're all gays; or single mothers on welfare; doesn't own a gun; couldn't care less about our lives, children, the rest of America; have no moral values and didn't want to go to war - did I miss anything? Oh, yes, too much fuzzy, warm, caring. Well, I guess we democrats deserved the big loss and must have our nose pushed in it to remind us what idiots we are, right? Forgive the tirade, but people are really not letting up. It's two days after the elections and 49% of the population already feel bad, why keep rubbing it in? Does it make you feel better? Or are we so far gone, so divided? Say it ain't so!

"Hopefully he will listen to us this term."

I agree, it's now time to come together and unite for our country (warm, fuzzy!) The question is will Bush listen? Or, will everyone, and I mean everyone, regret another four years? And this is not casting gloom and doom.
Reply #29 from JoeUser Forums Top
Mmm, from most of the blogs I've read so far, (and according to this much-detailed poll, this really spelt it out), most republicans believe that democrats: don't earn a lot of money; belongs to a union; don't have an high school education; don't attend church; never served in the military; aren't married or/ they're all gays; or single mothers on welfare; doesn't own a gun; couldn't care less about our lives, children, the rest of America; have no moral values and didn't want to go to war - did I miss anything? Oh, yes, too much fuzzy, warm, caring. Well, I guess we democrats deserved the big loss and must have our nose pushed in it to remind us what idiots we are, right? Forgive the tirade, but people are really not letting up. It's two days after the elections and 49% of the population already feel bad, why keep rubbing it in? Does it make you feel better? Or are we so far gone, so divided? Say it ain't so!

"Hopefully he will listen to us this term."

I agree, it's now time to come together and unite for our country (warm, fuzzy!) The question is will Bush listen? Or, will everyone, and I mean everyone, regret another four years? And this is not casting gloom and doom.
Reply #30 from JoeUser Forums Top
Folks, somehow, I posted twice. Sorry, computer glitch! Brad, please delete the extra, Thx.
Reply #31 from PolMach Forums Top
I agree, it's now time to come together and unite for our country


I completely disagree. Asking that we come together is what the party in charge of the white house, senate and congress says when it wants to push its party agenda and not have the other party complain. If the Republicans want to take on a moderate agenda and also look into issues the Democrats want (I am laughing while typing this) then yes we can all come together. If the republicans want to take more hard line issues and try to pass them then I say to the democrat congress OBSTRUCT OBSTRUCT OBSTRUCT. In the current situation when the Republicans say unite they mean lie down and take it.
Reply #32 from JoeUser Forums Top


Dude,one word: "Iraq"

As for Bush listening to others, I can testify that many of his supporters don't ("froggy go home" etc. tho I'm not French), but maybe he'll be different. Unless of course, all he cares about is "staying the course", then I guess he won't listen at all
Reply #33 from JoeUser Forums Top

Reply #32 By: Brownsnout - 11/4/2004 5:13:49 PM
I agree, it's now time to come together and unite for our country


I completely disagree. Asking that we come together is what the party in charge of the white house, senate and congress says when it wants to push its party agenda and not have the other party complain. If the Republicans want to take on a moderate agenda and also look into issues the Democrats want (I am laughing while typing this) then yes we can all come together. If the republicans want to take more hard line issues and try to pass them then I say to the democrat congress OBSTRUCT OBSTRUCT OBSTRUCT. In the current situation when the Republicans say unite they mean lie down and take it.


In case you don't realize,WE (republicans) control the senate, the house, a majority of governerships and soon the supreme court too. BTW Tom Daschel is GONE! You don't like it? TOUGH NOOGIES! Get used to it and get over it! *You* and your kind are the main reason Bush got re-elected!
Reply #34 from JoeUser Forums Top
What 'Rush' to become citizens?
Of course, plenty of the Third World populace think that America offers a better chance at a decent lifestyle for their families than their present situation, allied to a safe haven from the gun crazed mobs that pass themselves off as the 'Government' in their homelands.
And these people ARE welcome in the US ..... a great source of cheap labour for the menial jobs, and no problems with health cover, unions or anything above a bare subsistance wage.
America is also a place for the organised crime operations that have risen from the rubble of all the old Soviet Union, they are welcomed as part of the great American business conglomerate, well, they do bring money with them so they MUST be good for the country.
Not that many takers from the more affluent Western or Pacific Rim nations however.
Must be a good reason for that, perhaps the thought of bending over and grasping one's ankles every four years is not a happy thought.
Reply #35 from JoeUser Forums Top
The US,
I feel very lucky to have been born here.
I love everything about living here.
I do not want to live in any other country.
Reply #36 from JoeUser Forums Top
"This should settle this issue once and for all. We had some people on our site trying to say that you should vote for Kerry to "support our troops". People who have ever served in the military very much supported Bush over Kerry and actually lost amongst those who have never served. I think that says a lot."

I don't think it really solves it once and for all. Almost 50% of the military supports Kerry. Obviously the majority supports Bush, but that means the military is actually fairly evenly split. That's what usually happens in democracies on any issue.
Reply #37 from JoeUser Forums Top

Reply #37 By: Champas Socialist - 11/8/2004 1:06:12 AM
"This should settle this issue once and for all. We had some people on our site trying to say that you should vote for Kerry to "support our troops". People who have ever served in the military very much supported Bush over Kerry and actually lost amongst those who have never served. I think that says a lot."

I don't think it really solves it once and for all. Almost 50% of the military supports Kerry. Obviously the majority supports Bush, but that means the military is actually fairly evenly split. That's what usually happens in democracies on any issue.


I'd really like to know where you got your info because EVERYTHING I've seen on the web has it closer to 70% for Bush.
The military traditionally votes Republican. In one recent informal survey of the armed forces and their family members, 72 percent of respondents said they favored Bush over Democrat John Kerry.
This is from ABC news! And BTW people that were in the military at one time or another voted overwhelmingly for Bush!