A few thoughts on this, for what they're worth.
The Kerry organs are (surprise) already spinning this as another reason to vote against Bush.
Their spin: Osama really wants Bush to be re-elected to keep him as the poster boy for terrorist recruitment efforts and he calculated that his appearance on tape 4 days before the election would boost Bush's campaign. Therefore, in order to decrease the terrorist threat, we should elect Kerry. Excuse me, I have a headache.
The NYT, in their front pager for tomorrow (already on the web) found it somehow important to note that bin Laden looked "vigorous and healthy."
OBL himself says our security has nothing to do with the election. He just thought 4 days before the election would be a good time to clarify that for us, I guess.
OBL apparently actually believes there are ears in this country sympathetic to his justification for the act of war he admits organizing and perpetrating against us, the cold-blooded murder of some 3000 innocent people, mostly Americans but from many other nations, as well, by the most horrific means imaginable. What further evidence of his reptilian insanity do we need?
However insane the bastard is, he is not stupid. Neither was Ted Kaczynski, who differs from OBL only in degree and sophistication. He released this tape at this time, on the heels of the tape released just 2 days before, for a very specific reason. He's never done anything without a specific reason. If his mere image and pathetic rantings on a video tape can influence the outcome of our election, we deserve whatever follows. If we allow the world and the terrorists to see that terrorism "works" as it did in Spain, we will never see the end of it or its threats.
Listening to Kerry today, trying to sound more hawkish than even Bush, just made me want to puke (Mikey Moore probably IS puking). I'd hope that at least he has painted himself into the corner of having to back up his rhetoric if he's elected, but his pattern of behavior gives me cold comfort. He may calculate that defeating the terrorist threat "isn't worth it" and leave the field to the terrorists to impose their will on the entire Middle East by force if they can. That brings us back to Israel, which would not sit idly while the US abdicated its duty - a nightmare scenario for sure.
Cheers,
Daiwa