Kerry victory in November

Statistical analysis

from JoeUser Forums

Polls are interesting things but statistical analysis is my thing.  And based on our models in The Political Machine, Kerry is going to squeak out a victory in November barring a sudden change in events.

The Florida of 2004 may be where you least expect it - Iowa. Ohio and Iowa are going to be the key states this time. But it is Iowa that people should be keeping an eye on even more so than Ohio or Florida. It has a relatively low population which creates all kinds of opportunity for messing with the final results.

Moreover, Bush can potentially win the election and still lose Ohio as long as he gets Iowa.  That's because Wisconsin is likely to go Bush this time.  So you could have a bizarre scenario where Bush wins the election despite losing Ohio.  In that event, it would be Bush 271 to Kerry's 267.

Obviously when it's as close as it is, it's really hard to make a definitive prediction. Our statistical model is not poll driven but is instead issue driven. The war in Iraq is no longer as strongly favored by independents and the jobs issue in Ohio has increased.

So our prediction right now is that Kerry has an advantage even though national polls currently favor Bush. And that the two states to watch out for are Ohio and Iowa. The computer controlled versions of Bush and Kerry in our simulations now focus almost exclusively on those two states.  New Mexico could also go either way but it isn't statistically relevant.

This article does not indicate a preference by Stardock or Ubi Soft. It is just a report from our statistical model and from waching the computer controlled versions of Bush and Kerry.  If you're an American, regardless of where you live, please make sure you are registered to vote and vote this November.

politics
13,974 views 39 replies
Reply #1 from JoeUser Forums Top
Wouldn't it be amazing if Bush were to win the popular vote and lose the EC? Wonder if the Dems would protest the results this time.

Cheers,
Daiwa
Elemental: Reforged
Reply #3 from JoeUser Forums Top
Wouldn't it be amazing if Bush were to win the popular vote and lose the EC? Wonder if the Dems would protest the results this time.

Cheers,
Daiwa


Absolutely not going to happen. But yes I would still be in favor of dividing the electoral votes by candidate in all the states.
Reply #4 from JoeUser Forums Top
Arthur Schleisinger had an idea in his most recent book -- give the winner of the popular vote 150 "bonus" electoral votes, which would pretty much guarantee the popular vote winner a win in the EC. Any opinions on that?
Reply #5 from JoeUser Forums Top
Arthur Schleisinger had an idea in his most recent book -- give the winner of the popular vote 150 "bonus" electoral votes, which would pretty much guarantee the popular vote winner a win in the EC. Any opinions on that?


Good idea but bad idea. The problem with this is it means there is no point for the electoral college. I think it would be better to divide the states votes because then the small power hungry states who want more votes would still recieve them.
Reply #6 from JoeUser Forums Top
give the winner of the popular vote 150 "bonus" electoral votes,


If you're gonna do that, just scrap the EC altogether.

Another thing is, there are some scenarios where both candidates get 269, which would send the vote to the House.
Reply #7 from PolMach Forums Top
He who gets the most states wins!!

- Grim X
Reply #8 from JoeUser Forums Top
Brad... is there a way for us to run our copies of PM in simulation mode?
Reply #9 from JoeUser Forums Top
If the hubbub about Democratic "pre-emptive" action about "expected" voter intimidation is any indication, I think this will be more complex, and possibly more drawn out than the last election. It's sad to say, the Democratic party, in an effort to gain a four year office, have tainted their repuration for many, many more years than that...
Reply #10 from JoeUser Forums Top
to gain a four year office, have tainted their repuration for many, many more years than that...
But it's okay to taint Republican reputaton for four more years.
Reply #11 from JoeUser Forums Top
OMG it's like the madden playstation game before the superbowl..........

Will your game be as accurate as maden?

Sorry can't remember the win/loss record but I know it has been pretty accurate...
Reply #12 from JoeUser Forums Top
to gain a four year office, have tainted their repuration for many, many more years than that...
But it's okay to taint Republican reputation for four more years.
Reply #13 from JoeUser Forums Top

Interesting blog, Brad. Recent count has Fla at a 4 point spread for Kerry. Yet as you say, events can make the difference. 

Reply #14 from JoeUser Forums Top
I be liking this blog! And might I say, I'm doing my best to make sure Kerry wins Ohio!!
Reply #15 from PolMach Forums Top
Draginol don't forget the Chaos Theory when it comes to political elections.

2000 was an example, Gore thought it was in the bag but lost the Electoral.

Sometimes things never goes as planed because most people forget to factor in the Chaos element.

We will know on November 2nd (late night) or November 3rd what the outcome is.

- Grim X
Reply #16 from JoeUser Forums Top

The title is reassuring, but who knows what will happen. 

Anyone who protested about Gore's non-election on the basis of winning the popular vote is wrong.  The relevent reason for discord would be the fuzzy results in Florida.  I think that would be worthy of protest.

If irregularities in any state lead to Bush's re-election or Kerry's election this time out, it would make sense for the "losing" side to protest.

Reply #17 from JoeUser Forums Top
Gore would have won in 2000 if Palm Beach voters could figure out how to use a slightly more complicated ballot.

Kind of gives lie to the myth that Democrats are smarter than Republicans. The only reason Gore isn't President right now is because Democrats in Palm Beech were dumb.

Keep a close eye on the candidates. I think you'll see them in Iowa and Ohio a lot in the coming weeks.
Reply #18 from JoeUser Forums Top
Well - there are all kinds of irregularities in a couple of states with the 2000 election. Focusing on FL and palm beach in particular ignores other things.
Reply #19 from JoeUser Forums Top
MUHAHAHAHA, look at all the red land mass we conservatives control, victory is sure to be our's!!!!!!!! sigh........stinking electoral college........if only size truly mattered...........in politics.
Reply #20 from JoeUser Forums Top
We'd own almost all the natural resources, too and have all their bagel-eatin behinds bottled up in cities, ripe for siege. Where's my damn catapult...
Reply #21 from JoeUser Forums Top
Thank you so much for doing the statistical analysis. I was very curious about who would win be it Kerry or Bush if it was ran in the Political Machine and I can see how the country shifted towards Kerry. It's really interesting to see how the process folds out as the swing states are in full swing. This is going to be an even tighter election than 2000.
Reply #22 from JoeUser Forums Top
Draginol:

Not that I don't appreciate the model but I would be remiss if I didn't say that the election within 30 electoral votes or 4% (the usual margin of error for election polls) is "too close to call." I think we are still too far away to even make a choice of candidates. Even this morning, new information on Bush's Guard Service came out.

I would caution people not to rush to either candidate until we get to the last weekend. I know that many feel strongly about "their candidate" but this election is far from over.
Reply #23 from JoeUser Forums Top

CrispE: I know, it's too close to call. That's the point of making a preidction because if it wasn't so close, any prediction would be "Well DUH."

Iowa and Ohio, if Bush wins either one, he wins. But I think Kerry is likely to win both.

Reply #24 from JoeUser Forums Top
You're a smart guy, Drag. Just hope you're smart and wrong.

Cheers,
Daiwa
Reply #25 from PolMach Forums Top
Can't forget Colorado's voting initiative #36. This would split up Colorado's electoral votes according to popular vote. If it passes, Kerry will pick up four (or if he wins Colorado five) electoral votes. Final score: Kerry 270, Bush 268