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Draginol
Draginol
Join Date 03/2001
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Bush finally wins a debate

Squeaks out Kerry

October 13, 2004 9:40:04 PM from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums

Kerry seemed a bit off his game today and Bush seemed very much on his game. This time I give Bush the edge.  He seemed relaxed, strong on the issues, and got all his points out.  Kerry wasn't that bad but he was a lot more defensive than I would have thought.

I don't think it will make much difference though. Bush blew the first debate so badly when the audience was so big. The audience here was much smaller than it was in the first debate. Kerry also played a bit of dirty pool with the lesbian issue and Bush got that key 1990 Kerry vote on the first Gulf War.

Here is a recap of the debate scoring:

Debate #1:
Kerry 5
Bush 2

Debate #2:
Cheney 2
Edwards 1

Debate #3:
Kerry 5
Bush 4

Debate #4:
Kerry 3
Bush 5

Final Score:
Kerry: 14
Bush: 13

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Draginol
Myrrander
Join Date 09/2004
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Reply #1 October 13, 2004 9:42:03 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
Despite our differences, I agree 100% with this final analysis. The President certainly won this debate, although I thought Senator Kerry did quite well -- it's almost the opposite of my idea of the second debate.
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Draginol
Draginol
Join Date 03/2001
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Reply #2 October 13, 2004 9:44:49 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
Well i think we've called them pretty accurately.  Though I got beat up for calling the second Prez debate for Kerry, I think most people came to the same conclusion by a narrow majority.
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Draginol
sandy2
Join Date 08/2004
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Reply #3 October 13, 2004 9:44:50 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
I think this debate was a tie, unlike the last one, which I think Kerry won by 1 point, and the reason I think it was a tie is because the president continued to smirk throughout, and did not hit on the key facts.
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Draginol
hitparade
Join Date 09/2004
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Reply #4 October 13, 2004 9:47:42 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
President Bush outclassed kerry. A slam dunk. Brilliant! I almost felt sorry for the droppy-faced kerry. Naa! His fake tan faded, too.
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Draginol
Ciperl
Join Date 06/2001
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Reply #5 October 13, 2004 9:47:47 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
I definately agree about the final analysis. But it was interesting to see that before these debates began. People thought that the President would do better on the first debate because it was on foreign policy. And that he would do worse on the last debate because it was on the economy. But suprisingly enought, it was the other way around. The President seemed more confident and definitive in his answers and Kerry seemed to just say "I've got a plan" and didn't give anything of deeper value.
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Draginol
Myrrander
Join Date 09/2004
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Reply #6 October 13, 2004 9:50:49 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
In my interest in voter education, I wish the crowd from the first debate had tuned into tonight. George Bush was even stronger tonight than in the second debate -- he illustrated his ideas very well.
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Draginol
apdelong31
Join Date 04/2004
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Reply #7 October 13, 2004 9:55:22 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
As much as I hate to say, Kerry didn't seem as sharp as he did in the last two debates, but I also agree that I don't think it will cancel out the first debate by any stretch.

But I'm curious as to where the scoring is coming from?
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Draginol
Myrrander
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Reply #8 October 13, 2004 9:58:08 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
Scoring? Draginol and I have both posted our "gut" feelings after every debate. Drag's a bit more from the right than me, but we've agreed on the winner of every debate. Does that mean you have to believe us? Hell, no! But that's the basis for "scoring."
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Draginol
Draginol
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Reply #9 October 13, 2004 10:00:35 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums

Like Myrrander said, we're just scoring from our gut.

If you want to get really statistical, I would also multiplay the scores by an audience factor:

Debate #1: X5

Debate #2: X1

Debate #3: X3

Debate #4: X3

 

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Draginol
Myrrander
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Reply #10 October 13, 2004 10:03:24 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
It's a good breakdown, Drag.
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Draginol
CrispE
Join Date 05/2003
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Reply #11 October 13, 2004 10:12:39 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
Draginol:

CNN's undecided audience had it 10-7 (7 tie) Kerry. This is a link to Olberman's blog. Link


He saw it very tilted to Kerry. I have yet to see any pundits call it for Bush.
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Draginol
Myrrander
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Reply #12 October 13, 2004 10:23:20 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
Well, hell. I don't give a care for pundits. This one was Bush's despite all the chatter that called it otherwise. I'd say it was an even greater victory with all the people who said Bush couldn't win this one.
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Draginol
Mitch21
Join Date 08/2004
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Reply #13 October 13, 2004 10:25:50 PM
from PoliticalMachine ForumsPoliticalMachine Forums
thats why i dont read polls about debates, they misrepresent information. Bush clearly won in the debate, and you only have to look at the forum to realize this. What the CNN execs think is of no consequence to me.

I would say either Kerry won slightly(as draginol and myrrander have scored) or it was a tie. In any case, I think Bush won not by points, but simply because everyone expected Kerry to beat him by a landslide, and now they realize(or i'd hope they do) that Bush's accent doesnt corralate with his intelligence. Somehow i think the polls will go back to the way they were pre-debates.
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Draginol
Myrrander
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Reply #14 October 13, 2004 10:36:26 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
No, Mitch, I would say as far as "points" go, Bush won this third debate.
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Draginol
CrispE
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Reply #15 October 13, 2004 10:49:09 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
Mitch21:

I offered the comments as a reference. I also don't care for the pundits but they do influence opinion. Bush's statement about not saying he thought Bin Laden was not so much a threat is getting a lot of play because he did say that he thought he wasn't much of a threat in the Spring of 2002.

Other than that, it was the same ole same ole.
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Draginol
Myrrander
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Reply #16 October 13, 2004 10:52:43 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
it was the same ole same ole.


strikes me as a liberal wanting to save what they can

sorry, this was Bush
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Draginol
charles poore
Join Date 02/2004
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Reply #17 October 13, 2004 11:05:03 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
A couple of times I nearly fell over in my reclainer.
#1 Kerry: We have to many people left out of the process in the country .Bush agreed. These two people agreed on the rules to the debates that bared any third parties that an estimated forty percent of the voters would like to have encluded
#2 Kerry on Economy; We need to raise the minimum wage. Why ? we have fifty million Illegals working below the minimum wage now, taking jobs from people that was making eight fifty an hour and erroding the tax base. What is needed is to enforce the laws we have on the books concerning hiring Illegals,that alone would turn the economy around.
I will vote for Bush but not because of the debates.
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Draginol
Deference
Join Date 04/2004
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Reply #18 October 13, 2004 11:09:56 PM
from PoliticalMachine ForumsPoliticalMachine Forums
What happened to the JU blogger elite? Did you guys get in to the cough syrup again?

Seriously, Bush relied upon education and pell grants as his crutch with the economy, jobs, french toast, etc. . I watched the debate in a crowd of republicans, democrats, and independents as part of Debate Watch which is a collegiate program encouraging civil debate amongst viewers without any pundit spin to get in the way. Most of the college republicans in the crowd left as soon as the debates ended as they were so embarressed they wouldn't stick around to defend anything that their candidate said, the guy did so poorly. I convened with some of the remnants of the college republicans after the crowd debate to find out what their thoughts were and they basically stated that they felt Bush was still a principled guy who felt as they did but that he didn't strike any extra points tonight.

I felt so bad for Bush, he strained to keep an insincere smile that came off looking more clownish than anything else and eventually seemed to kind of resign himself to being out of orbit....

Kerry sported two mighty self inflicted wounds tonight; 1.) His comment on Bush not meeting with the Black Caucus (kerry, wtf?) and 2.) Practically saying that judges gave rights to Americans such as abortion, bad stuff. Hey, Kerry, want to help the Rep.s paint you as someone who thinks judges should legislate?

Both candidates really got to me when they supported the temporary work permit, we're losing jobs, and you guys are pandering to what will eventually become the second largest minority in the U.S. ...*ack*
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Draginol
drmiler
Join Date 09/2004
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Reply #19 October 13, 2004 11:21:38 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums

Reply #18 By: Deference - 10/13/2004 11:11:59 PM
Kerry sported two mighty self inflicted wounds tonight; 1.) His comment on Bush not meeting with the Black Caucus (kerry, wtf?) and 2.) Practically saying that judges gave rights to Americans such as abortion, bad stuff. Hey, Kerry, want to help the Rep.s paint you as someone who thinks judges should legislate?


Try 3 self-inflicted! If you think Kerry's comment about the VP's daughter is going to just disappear, think again!
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Draginol
Daiwa
Join Date 07/2001
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Reply #20 October 13, 2004 11:22:31 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
This is shaping up as an interesting campaign in regard to the relationship between the debates and how people vote. This may turn out to be the first time that the media's declared winner of all 3 debates loses the election. The polls about who won the debates seem completely disconnected from the polls about who is preferred for President. We'll see.

Sure sign that Kerry's is in trouble - Jesse Jackson on Fox trying to backfill for him. Talk about no credibility. Now he's spewing his racial hate speech about how the coming election is going to be less legitimate than the one in 2000 due to the process being rigged against the poor and minorities even more this time, laying the ground work for the post-election bitching.

Cheers,
Daiwa
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Draginol
Draginol
Join Date 03/2001
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Reply #21 October 13, 2004 11:30:07 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums

Deference - the blogger "elite" has the ability to be a little less impassioned on our views.  I think there is a tendancy on those who are somewhat liberal to be so tied to their passions that they cannot look at the debates objectdively as often.

Some may recall that Gore "won" the debates last time in terms of the polls even though, in hindsight, it was pretty obvious that Bush won. I think one reason for that is that Democratic voters tend to be more touchy feely -- more impassioned -- and hence tend to be more inclined to think their guy won no matter what.

That's not universally the case of course.  But I think it fair to say that some of the "lefties" around here would think Kerry won even if he said that he supported eating babies.

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Draginol
Deference
Join Date 04/2004
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Reply #22 October 13, 2004 11:30:07 PM
from PoliticalMachine ForumsPoliticalMachine Forums
If you think Kerry's comment about the VP's daughter is going to just disappear, think again!

This was mentioned in our Debate Watch group, a member of the student democrats criticized him for this and many heads were bobbing up and down, so, yeah, I missed number 3, you're RIGHT!
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Draginol
CrispE
Join Date 05/2003
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Reply #23 October 13, 2004 11:31:59 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
Myrrander:

I didn't offer my opinion. That is because I want to watch the debate again. This type of debate like the first is something you should watch at least twice so that you don't miss anything.

Secondly, it doesn't matter what I, you, or anyone here thought anyway. I have had the feeling for the past month everyone had decided who and why. That doesn't mean I'm not interested but I'm not hearing anyone say "before tonite, I was going to vote for ________, but now I've changed my mind."

If you live in a swing state then I recommend you vote because you could be the tie breaker (it will be very close). If you are in one of the 37 states that are now solid one way or the other, then vote because it's your duty. But whatever, vote!
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Draginol
Grim Xiozan
Join Date 08/2004
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Reply #24 October 13, 2004 11:34:37 PM
from PoliticalMachine ForumsPoliticalMachine Forums
Before tonite, I was going to vote for Badnarik, but now I've changed my mind.

I am going to vote against Bush and Kerry by voting for Badnarik.

- Grim X
Go Badnarik Go!!
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Draginol
Deference
Join Date 04/2004
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Reply #25 October 13, 2004 11:35:20 PM
from PoliticalMachine ForumsPoliticalMachine Forums
You are over-generalizing, Draginol, and you know how smart that makes you sound...
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