Sandy you need to look again. Electorial-vote.com has Bush ahead of Kerry by 66 points! Thats as of 2 minutes ago.

I was refering to the debate.

Reply #51 By: sandy2 - 10/14/2004 7:49:33 PM Sandy you need to look again. Electorial-vote.com has Bush ahead of Kerry by 66 points! Thats as of 2 minutes ago. I was refering to the debate.

Your the one who quoted "electorial vote.com" saying Kerry wasin the lead. They don't rate the debates. Hence the name electorial-vote

I think there is a tendancy on those who are somewhat liberal to be so tied to their passions that they cannot look at the debates objectdively as often.Some may recall that Gore "won" the debates last time in terms of the polls even though, in hindsight, it was pretty obvious that Bush won. I think one reason for that is that Democratic voters tend to be more touchy feely -- more impassioned -- and hence tend to be more inclined to think their guy won no matter what.That's not universally the case of course. But I think it fair to say that some of the "lefties" around here would think Kerry won even if he said that he supported eating babies.

Gee, its kind of hard to respond to such sweeping generalizations. Let's just say that the facts - i.e. let's call them "scientific polls" (nudge, nudge, wink, wink) support that Kerry won. I think that some Republicans, particularly business owners, tend to be more ideologues -- more impassioned -- and hence tend to be more inclined to think their guy won no matter what.

JW

*smile*

Here here Jay! Everyone I have recently spoken to agrees that there is no way that any democratic president would have gone to war in Iraq. Right or wrong, they all believe very strongly that this would have been a better policy. And almost every one of the people I am talking about are university educated software engineers that make video games when they are not being techno minded empiricists in some other way These people are universally shocked when they find out how close the presidential campaign seems to be, even more so when I tell them that amongst the insane 48% are some of our heros of game and software design. "So rediculously partisan Republicans aren't mostly bible thumping gun toting maniacs?" NO!

Here's a tip, next time you assume that most "lefties" believe everything that comes out of Micheal Moore's or Bill Maher's mouth is gospel, imagine for a moment that we are as smart as you. Not more, not less but just enough to be insulted when you map your biases onto us.

You must have been watching a different set of debates. Bush did not win anything. Edwards and Cheney were very close and give the "Great resume " of Cheney, I think Cheney lost.

If Bush wins on November 2, 2004, The loosers will be the vast majority of the people in the United States of America!

I know a little something about polling and other forms of data collection. Calling any poll "scientific" is a stretch. At best, they are more statistically valid than others.

But the flash polls are infamous because you'll find that many people who claim to be undecided are not at all undecided. I'll be looking at the national polls over the next couple of days. If Bush gains, then it's clear he won the third debate. If he loses ground, then he lost the third debate.

I think sandy was reporting that electoral-vote showed polls saying Kery had won the debate

but you're right drmiler, Bush remains ahead on their vote count

Reply #57 By: Myrrander - 10/15/2004 4:06:40 PM I think sandy was reporting that electoral-vote showed polls saying Kery had won the debate

The reason I commented Myrr is because electorial-vote doesn't do the debate polls. They never have.

The reason I commented Myrr is because electorial-vote doesn't do the debate polls. They never have.

False. I quote from the site electoral vote:

News from the Votemaster
Modern politics is (unfortunately) more about expectations than about reality. Consequently, Gallup ran a poll BEFORE the third debate asking who was going to win? The results: 54% expected Kerry to win, 36% expected Bush to win, 10% expected a tie.

Now for the actual results. After the debate, a Gallup poll showed Kerry to be the winner 52% to 39%, not far from expectations. A CBS poll of uncommitted voters after the debate showed that 39% thought Kerry had won and 25% thought Bush had won. An ABC News poll showed Kerry barely won, 42% to 41%. However, the ABC poll had 38% Republicans and 30% Democrats, so breaking even in a group skewed towards the GOP has to be considered a Kerry win. ARG didn't run a large-scale poll this time. Still, the clear conclusions: Kerry won the first and third debates; the second one was a tie. Cheney did better than his boss and won the VP debate.

Sandy

I would not take much stock in Vote Master.com, They were the ones who had Kerry winning back when every other poll had Bush up by 6-10 points.

No offence.

And todays Gallop poll shows bush spearding the gap again.

That's My Two Cents

Reply #59 By: sandy2 - 10/15/2004 6:51:24 PM The reason I commented Myrr is because electorial-vote doesn't do the debate polls. They never have. False. I quote from the site electoral vote: News from the Votemaster Modern politics is (unfortunately) more about expectations than about reality. Consequently, Gallup ran a poll BEFORE the third debate asking who was going to win? The results: 54% expected Kerry to win, 36% expected Bush to win, 10% expected a tie. Now for the actual results. After the debate, a Gallup poll showed Kerry to be the winner 52% to 39%, not far from expectations. A CBS poll of uncommitted voters after the debate showed that 39% thought Kerry had won and 25% thought Bush had won. An ABC News poll showed Kerry barely won, 42% to 41%. However, the ABC poll had 38% Republicans and 30% Democrats, so breaking even in a group skewed towards the GOP has to be considered a Kerry win. ARG didn't run a large-scale poll this time. Still, the clear conclusions: Kerry won the first and third debates; the second one was a tie. Cheney did better than his boss and won the VP debate.

Nope your false. Your own quote does you in. All they did was show other peoples polls. The polls you quoted have *nothing to do with electorial-vote. I stand by what I said. Electorial-vote doesn't do the debate polls. They never have.

Reply #47 By: sandy2 - 10/14/2004 5:04:55 PM The major news organizations call this to kerry. See electoral-vote.com for more Sandy you need to look again. Electorial-vote.com has Bush ahead of Kerry by 66 points! Thats as of 2 minutes ago.

Nope your false. Your own quote does you in. All they did was show other peoples polls. The polls you quoted have *nothing to do with electorial-vote. I stand by what I said. Electorial-vote doesn't do the debate polls. They never have.

I give up drmiller. If you look at my original post, I sated that the major news organizations called it to Kerry. I then refered you to the electoral-vote.com site if you did not believe me that they had in fact done this. You said Bush is up, I said I was refering to the debate and you continued to call me wrong. You sir are the one who was wrong regarding my original and subsequent posts.

Reply #59 By: sandy2 - 10/15/2004 6:51:24 PM The reason I commented Myrr is because electorial-vote doesn't do the debate polls. They never have. False. I quote from the site electoral vote: News from the Votemaster Modern politics is (unfortunately) more about expectations than about reality. Consequently, Gallup ran a poll BEFORE the third debate asking who was going to win? The results: 54% expected Kerry to win, 36% expected Bush to win, 10% expected a tie.

Okay I'll admit I was wrong in the first place. But in reply #59 your the one who's incorrect. My quote to Myrrander said that electorial-vote didn't do debate polls and your reply said that, that was false. Which is incorrect. So to reply #59 *only* I'll stand by my guns "they don't do debate polls." All they do is show what the major pollsters say.

Ok, well I guess we misunderstood eachother in that case. As far as I am aware, electoral-vote.com does not do any of their own polls. They only display the results of other polls. In that case, you were right in reply #59 in assuming that they didn't create the polls, and I was right in considering "doing" the debate polls to mean the same thing as "doing" the election polls, which is to collect the data from pollsters.