blogic: Debate Result II -- Kerry Appears Presidential
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In some of the media coverage, I think there's been too much coverage of Bush's scowls and eye rolling. Frankly it irritated me in 2000 when people thought the most important issue facing America was Al Gore's sighs, and I don't think Kerry should become president just because George Bush appeared off-balance.
John Kerry accomplished his most important goal: coming off such that ordinary Americans can imagine him as our president.
When a sitting president runs for re-election, the election is about him. Studies of presidential voting have repeatedly shown that these races are far more determined by how people see the incumbent than by their view of the challenger. On the other hand, the challenger does have to satisfy the minimal condition he is perceived as a potential president.
In other words, when a president is running for re-election, there's a two stage process:
By performing capably in the first debate, Kerry has made it much harder for Bush to keep Americans from moving to stage two of their decision making process.
Stage two focuses on how good a job the president is doing, and whether people feel comfortable about the direction of the country. Because Kerry did fine in the debate, the election will now be nearly completely about Bush, not about Kerry, barring some devasting mistake on Kerry's part, or new damaging information about him (e.g., Kerry killed Kennedy! Suddenly, it all makes so much sense...). The polling numbers on the country's direction -- while not devasting -- are weak for an incumbent, and are making this a much harder campaign for Bush. Bush needs to convince America that he's done a good job. That will be a challenge with the sluggish economy and the ongoing reports of chaos in Iraq.
Because of Kerry's debate performance, Bush can only win by proving that he's been a good president, not by saying Kerry would be a bad one.
Bush's ability to win this race by painting Kerry as unpresidential disappeared last night -- that leaves Kerry in a much stronger position than he was in twenty four hours ago.
John Kerry accomplished his most important goal: coming off such that ordinary Americans can imagine him as our president.
When a sitting president runs for re-election, the election is about him. Studies of presidential voting have repeatedly shown that these races are far more determined by how people see the incumbent than by their view of the challenger. On the other hand, the challenger does have to satisfy the minimal condition he is perceived as a potential president.
In other words, when a president is running for re-election, there's a two stage process:
1. Is it possible to imagine the challenger as the president? (e.g., Watermelon Smasher Gallagher would fail this stage -- yes, Gallagher is running)The Bush campaign has focused on making Kerry look incapable of being president. Character attacks were one way of trying to convince Americans that Kerry simply isn't presidential, and that he shouldn't even be considered as a legitimate alternative to Bush.
2. Is the president doing a good job?
By performing capably in the first debate, Kerry has made it much harder for Bush to keep Americans from moving to stage two of their decision making process.
Stage two focuses on how good a job the president is doing, and whether people feel comfortable about the direction of the country. Because Kerry did fine in the debate, the election will now be nearly completely about Bush, not about Kerry, barring some devasting mistake on Kerry's part, or new damaging information about him (e.g., Kerry killed Kennedy! Suddenly, it all makes so much sense...). The polling numbers on the country's direction -- while not devasting -- are weak for an incumbent, and are making this a much harder campaign for Bush. Bush needs to convince America that he's done a good job. That will be a challenge with the sluggish economy and the ongoing reports of chaos in Iraq.
Because of Kerry's debate performance, Bush can only win by proving that he's been a good president, not by saying Kerry would be a bad one.
Bush's ability to win this race by painting Kerry as unpresidential disappeared last night -- that leaves Kerry in a much stronger position than he was in twenty four hours ago.
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