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Polling Methodolgy
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Many people have questions about polls and polling methodology. Here is a brief description of the process and how we handle the polls.
How are Polls Conducted?
Several organizations conduct state political polls, usually when commissioned to do so by their customers, which include local and national newspapers and television stations, as well as political consultants, and candidates. Different polling organizations use different methodologies and there is considerable controversy about which method is most accurate. To conduct a poll, the company first develops a questionnaire (together with the client). The phrasing of the questions is known to influence the results. Consider the following options:
If the election were held today, would you vote for George Bush or John Kerry?
If the election were held today, would you vote for John Kerry or George Bush?
If the election were held today, would you vote for Bush, Kerry, or Nader?
If the election were held today, who would you vote for?
The questions are then read to 500 to 1000 randomly chosen people called by telephone. Usually additional questions are added about age, gender, ethnicity, political affililation, education, income, and other factors to allow breakdowns by these categories. Often there are questions designed to determine if the person is likely to vote. These may include:
Are you currently registered to vote?
Did you vote in 2000?
Did you vote in 1996?
Do you believe that it is every citizen's duty to vote?
Do you think your vote matters?
Some polling companies give the results based on all adults they survey. Others include only registered voters. Yet others include only likely voters, using their proprietary formula for determining who is likely to vote based on questions like those above. Depending on exactly how the voting questions are phrased and which category of respondents is included in the poll, some systematic bias may be introduced. Some pollsters publish the results for both likely voters and all registered voters. Until Sept. 18, this site used likely voters if there was a choice (not often). Starting Sept. 18 the choice was made for registered voters if there was a choice on the grounds that there is increasing evidence the old formulas for screening likely voters will not work in 2004.
A recent development is the use of automated polls. With this technology, the company's computer dials telephone numbers at random and then plays a message asking whoever answers the demographic and political questions, to which they respond by pressing buttons on the telephone. The percentage of people who hang up quickly when this technique is much higher than when a human being conducts the poll. Nevertheless, Survey USA and Rasmussen rely heavily on this technique because it is fast and cheap, allowing them to charge less than their competitors in the polling business. Traditional polling companies criticize the methodology on the grounds that it does not adequately filter out teenagers too young to vote but definitely old enough to play games with the system. Chuck Todd, editor of the Hotline, a daily political tipsheet was once called by Survey USA and was effortlessly able to pass himself off as a 19-year old Republican Latina, something he could never have done with a human pollster. In response, the companies using automated polling, have numerous studies comparing their polls to traditional ones showing that they get the same results as their nonautomated competitors. But the issue of automated polling remains controversial.
Yet another factor is the day of the week the calls are made. Calls made Monday through Friday have a larger probability of getting a woman than a man, because there are more housewives than househusbands. Since women are generally more favorable to the Democrats than men are, this effect can introduce bias. Also, calls made Friday evening may miss younger voters, who may be out partying, and thus underweight them in the results. To counteract this effect, some polling companies call for an entire week, instead of the usual three days, but this approach results in polls that do not respond as quickly to events in the news. The most extreme example of this approach is Rasmussen, which polls people in the key battleground states every day and summarizes the results for the previous month at the start of each new month. More information about the polling processes is provided by this tutorial on polling written by the Gallup Poll.
Who Conducts Polls?
The websites of some of the major polling organizations are listed below. Note that most of them do not give much useful data for free. To get the numbers, you have to buy a subscription, in which case a wealth of data is provided. Also note that a few of the polling companies keep track of the state-by-state electoral vote, but all of them use only their own data. Since no polling company polls every state every week, using only one company's data means that their maps are often based on obsolete data. For this site, we base the maps on the results of four paid subscriptions, some of which, like www.pollingreport.com, themselves subscribe to multiple polling companies. Other sources, such as polls published by major media outlets are also used.
American Research Group
The Gallup Poll
Mason-Dixon
Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
Rasmussen Reports
Research 2000
Strategic Vision (GOP)
Survey USA
Zogby
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JoeUser Forums
Between Lurch and Curious George, I expect hilarity to ensue . . . I think most people already have their minds made up, though, and I don't think the debates will change too much.
PolMach Forums