Scattersez:
WELCOME TO WORLD WAR III :
THE FACTORS LEADING TO THE GLOBAL WAR
I bumped into one of my former trainees who came back from overseas, and sizing up the current situation, he told me, “When you really think about it we’re in World War III!” The conversation drifted to doomsayers and Nostradamus’s Centuries,one quartrain of which mentioned an AntiChrist from the East preceding a global war, that kept interpreters guessing whether the prophecy pointed to who ? For a time, it was Mao Tse-tung . Some time later, it was Saddam. And now?
You guessed it, man. No other figure of notoriety seems to fit the bill.
But there are some things missing from the scenario. Although the dramatic announcement of the global nature of the present war has been broadcasted with the same gusto as one would say “Let’s rock and roll!”, and a Western leader has even gone so far as to pinpoint in very WWII terms, an “Axis of Evil” group of countries to target, this isn’t exactly the nation’s experience in the previous world wars. In many instances, the constant reminder of “business as usual” notwithstanding the jolts between orange and red terror alerts as contrasted with the very real air raid warnings experienced by the civilian populace during WWII, seem to confuse and tell us that this is some kind of pseudo-world war, not yet the real thing.
From the files of an Al Qaeda training manual – which is available on the net, as well as public pronouncements from the enemy as to their global strategy, I think it’s clear that an unconventional war is being waged at the US not necessarily aimed at territorial occupation, as was the goal in the previous World Wars, ( What would a piece of Texas mean for Al Qaeda?). Necessarily, knowing it could not contest the US in a conventional war, it is the logical choice of war mode for the enemy. The enemy’s goal, however is and has been to cut the US sphere of influence away from what it considers its home – the Muslim population of the world. If we’re to be geographical about it, it means the Middle East, parts of Africa, central Asia and even parts of southeast asia. This guerilla war carried out by fundamentalist muslims at US targets all over the world is being answered by the present US government with conventional warfare aimed at territorial occupation of basically Muslim countries with the aim of “converting” them into” modern”, US-friendly states. I had already discussed in previous blogs why this present US counter-strategy is a mistake and will only weaken the focus on the war against global terrorists and achieve the opposite of our goals ( we would have more US-angry Muslim countries), but the populist appeal of “ better we fight a war over there than here” , regardless of its false assurances, serves to cloud any possible reevaluation of this policy until the November elections.
Although the guerilla probes into US targets of opportunity may be contained, meaning security mechanisms may be adapted to the new situation, its potential for turning out into a real World War – with all its nuclear proportions – seems to be emerging.
The first factor towards WWIII has been identified by the Indonesian academe, (University Professors interviewed by CNN). “Bush is a fundamentalist. They’re both (referring to Bin Laden) fundamentalists”. The no compromise “with us or against us” policy, with its twit on former allies “Old Europe” has served to reinforce this observation. By assuming conventional concepts and rigid strategies , we would be actually giving advantage to the enemy who from the start , have utilized unconventional concepts and very flexible strategies. The factor of a rigid Western leader who shoots from the hip can be very appealing for voters but can be very dangerous for Americans in doing war with an unconventional enemy. Already, the goals of Al Qaeda,in isolating the US from its allies, has received a boost from this rigid response. There are certainly other military options as discussed in my earlier blogs.
The next factor towards WWIII, which still has to develop is the actual isolation of the US with its allies. Actual political alignments and manifestations have already taken place. The economic and political bonding of the E.U. under one Euro currency, one visa, and a European parliament has created an immense lucrative market by itself. European Research Institutions have started offering more attractive compensation for scientists, obviously aiming for an edge for its R &D. Russia and China, possible sources for bio-terror WMDs, have been taking independent stances in dealing with its neighboring emerging states. ASEAN is taking a slower course towards the European model, and have distanced themselves from the course the US has taken on Iraq. Japan is getting sensitive about Okinawa. The Organization of Islamic Countries hold a significant number of oil producers from its member states.
The last factor towards WWIII is when a terrorist movement steered by Islamic Fundamentalists successfully exploits an actual isolation of the US from its allies so much so that it could rely on these former allies for logistical support. Admittedly, it’s still a significant leap from there. But a lot really depends on the US foreign policy from hereon. Sometimes all it takes is another “shoot” from the hip.
That’s what makes the stakes this coming November so high. No matter how sincere his intentions are, our leader can’t just rely on guts and instincts to win this war because he’s not even allowed to make another mistake. He needs to be smart, if not smarter, and for that he needs more friends, not enemies. Otherwise, it could cost us our lives and our future.
Heaven forbid this future scenario, but I don’t want to be the one who would try to search for answers to my son’s query as to why WWIII came about, and I’d start off by saying, “Well, you see, son… we once had this fearless leader…” Then I’d stop realizing that at one point in time, I could’ve done something about it.
