Expert Info for Ordinary Folk: Electoral College Forecasting
Tools for Following the Election
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/
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From Rasmussen Reports:
As with any electoral college analysis of this sort, this site only predicts who would win were the election held today.
Electoral College:Rasmussen is one of the best at poll analysis. He correctly predicted the size of the Bush convention bounce, days before recent polls showed that Time and Newsweek had signifcantly overestimated it.
Bush 213 Kerry 175
As part of the Bush Convention bounce, Michigan and New Jersey have moved to the Toss-Up column in our Electoral College projections. Both states had been leaning in Kerry's direction. The first Rasmussen Reports state polling data released after the Republican Convention showed Minnesota remaining firmly in the Toss-Up column.
President Bush now leads in states with 213 Electoral Votes while Senator Kerry leads in states with 175. Neither man, however, can yet count on the 270 Electoral Votes needed for victory in November. States where the candidates are within five percentage points of each other are considered Toss-Ups.
As with any electoral college analysis of this sort, this site only predicts who would win were the election held today.