How did I lose this state?

Each side had a level 1 HQ. I, as the GOP, had two newspaper and two TV ads. The Dems had zero ads. There are zero operatives in the state.

So, how did I lose it?



26,945 views 34 replies
Reply #1 Top
Might be that the margin of difference was too small. I think in the manual it said that all of the poll results are +/- 3% points. So you only have a 1% difference in the state.

I'm not an expert. This is just my limited opinion.

--James
Reply #2 Top
Ignore the poll.

Look at the issues.

How was it even close?
Reply #3 Top
Looks like you took a beating on the outsourcing jobs issue. You were strong on the next issue (Iraq). Don't know what to tell you, the independents went for the Democrat.
Reply #4 Top
Jefferson, you are wrong.

I'm winning outsourcing jobs.

I'm against it (hence the negative score) and so are all three groups of Ohio's voters. I won the issue handily.

In fact, I won every issue except prescriptions for seniors.

Again, I ask. How did I lose the state?
Reply #5 Top
Oops! You're right about winning all the issues. The people of Ohio just don't like you?
Better luck next time.
Reply #6 Top
Thanks Jefferson, but I think the problem is deeper than that.

There really is no reason that this state should be close and I'm concerned that it is. It shouldn't take a smear merchant/spin doctor to win every state where the AI and the player are at 100% awareness (although, I'm finding that this is largely true). What does it take to build a lead in a state?

I thought that the AI's advantage in the upper levels was confined to money, but now I'm wondering if they don't get some kind of a bump beyond that. Ohio, in this case, should not have been close at all.
Reply #7 Top
Another state from that same game that I actually won because I put a spin doctor in on election night.

Why is this state so close?



Reply #8 Top

Well it's really hard to tell when you don't also provide the traits of your candidate.

When you're talking that close of a call, things like Charisma, Integrity, Credibility, Compassion, all come into play.  And if yours is lower than his, then voila, there you go.

Why aren't you "Creaming them"? Use the new Ctrl-S (I think that's the key) that lets you take a snapshot of the internal data. But you really gotta list off what your candidate's traits are.  I've seen people compalin abut losing and gotten their files only to see that when they created their "custom" candidate they traded in all their charisma and compassion and etc. for more stamina and experience and such.

YOu also don't show what is in the state. What units are in that state for instance.

Reply #9 Top
Frogboy,

I listed what was in Ohio.

Pennsylvania at this time had a GOP spin doctor (mine), a third level GOP HQ, a first level Dem HQ, 2 GOP TV ads, 1 GOP newspaper ad, two Dem newspaper ads and a Dem intimidator. Both sides had 100% awareness.

My candidates traits are not going to explain this. I use the same candidate. Her stats are 8, 8, 4, 5, 5, 5, 4, 2,2, 2, 6, 9, 8, 7. My running mate is Mike Forbes. The Dem running mate is Chloe Sullivan.

Richardson's stats aren't better enough to explain this.
Reply #10 Top
Control S brings up the savegame menu.
Reply #11 Top

Okay fine then, the game cheats and you should ask for a refund. Is that what you want to hear? I want to help you but you seem insistent on an answer such as "the game is cheating" or something. I suspect the traits were the key there.  I'm not ruling out a "bug" either btw. You're using a custom candidate so that's always a possibility.

The formulas on the states are fairly straight forward.  I will tell you that you get diminishing returns on issues. I.e. take the square root of those numbers and you'll have a better idea of what the numbers it looked at were.

For instance, your first stat: 10 vs 8 (when you take the square root) isn't quite as close as you might think and you had the same position. So on that issue, even though you both screamed at the top of your lungs on the issue, it was essentially a draw.

Meanwhile, on abortion rights, he had 4 going for him and you had 3 points going against you since independents are going against you on that one.

I agree with you that based on what I see on the screen, it should be you winning the state. But I can say from looking at it that you're NOT creaming him.  Once someone has definitlively made their position known on an issue, you get into diminishing returns.  So you being very strongly for public education gives you more points than Richardson but from the people's point of view, they see that you're both for it, just that you're more for it than he is.  That gives you an advantage on that issue but it's not like it's "103 to 5" points.

What would a real voter think? They see you're both for the issue. They see that you're more enthusiastic about it than your opponent is. And they do care about it so you get a big advantage there.

But  if you gave yourself a 2 on compassion, a 2 on charisma, a 2 on religious, a 4 on credibility (you won't bothe rto explain so I can't really help you) then that would probably be enough to make quite a difference since these core values matter -- a difference of 1 does matter in the traits.

Richardson's integrity is a 6, his compassion is 6, his charisma is 6, his credibility is 5, his media bias is 6.  What are your ratings on these things?

 

Reply #12 Top
Ctrl-D will dump the state data so you can look at the numbers.
Reply #13 Top
Frogboy,

I don't mean to sound shrill, but aren't my candidates scores listed up there. I didn't type in the name of each trait but I'll do that now.

I'll list my stats again with their names,
Charisma 8, Comeliness 8, Compassion 4, Cred 5, Experience 5, Integrity 5, intelligence 4, Media Bias 2, Military 2, Minority 2, Religious 6, Stam 9, Fundraising 8, Money 7.

There is a gap of 4 in Media Bias, a gap of 2 in compassion, an advantage of 2 in charisma, and a push in credibility.
Reply #14 Top
My problem is that the guy didn't even campaign in these states (no ads in Ohio and newspaper only in Pennsylvania) and he is in a position to win both. I campaigned ridiculously hard in both states (plus California and NY) and its not having an effect.
Reply #15 Top
Ohio:
I can see in the spreadsheet some of the issues that led to him coming back, but a few don't make any sense to me.

What is judgement and why would Richardson have me 91% to 9% on that issue (weighting is 100, compared to the outsourcing jobs weighting of 164)?

He also beat me 70-30 on Republican loyalty (weight of 30) and 65-36 on Democratic loyalty (weight 84).

Media bias, minority appeal, and credibility were also big swings for him. (weighting 62, 100, 86, with Richardson winning them 90-10, 90-10, and 70-30)

So I killed him on issues, but a better VP choice helped him come back. Judgement and the loyalty scores put him over the top or very close.
Reply #16 Top
Should custom candidates have a judgment score of 0? Somehow Richardson/Sullivan's ticket had a judgment of 5 to my Custom/Forbes ticket having a judgment of 1.
Reply #17 Top

Judgment on both candidates is equal at the start. But yu can gain/lose points on that based on your answers on the interview questions. 

Go ahead and post up your file here and I'll look at it.

It gives me an idea that we should do a feature or soemthing where if you have a campaign HQ you can commission a "detailed study" that basically puts this info in a window in the game so you can look at the content more closely.

BTW, if he beat you on Republican loyalty, you must have answered some of your interview questions very strangely AND gotten some odd endorsements. 

I saw elsewhere that you didn't think there was much of a penalty for getting the endorsements of the special interests of the other side.  That's not the case. Party loyalty DOES matter as you can see.

It may not seem like it when you're getting started but the game has a lot more depth to it than first appears. 

Reply #18 Top
BTW, are you running the *latest* version from SDC?  Remember there was an issue in the previous 1.01 build in which personality traits on custom candidates were set to 0 when they're supposed to be 5.
Reply #19 Top
I am so lost now. Endorsements hurt you with your party? Shouldn't that be something we can track? From reading your answers to our questions about whether the game cheats I am getting the distinct impression most of the important stats just aren't displayed to us in the game.
Reply #20 Top
Thanks for all your help Frogboy. I'm not sure I understand completely how judgment works but I appreciate the support you've provided on every issue.

I am running the latest versions. I think I posted that the penalty wasn't big enough but now I can see that it does matter. I'm curious why Republican loyalty weight is so low and Democratic is so high but that's not so important. I emailed my savegame in already to the email addresses you provided to me when I was working on the other default candidate problem (the Carter beat me badly and other threads).

The only endorsements I ever get are Foreign Policy, Environment, and Christian. How would they hurt my loyalty among Republiccans?

As for interview questions, I always get the same positive newspaper headlines after an interview.

I'm thoroughly confused as well Last Stand. Judgment is about 2/3rds to 3/4s as important as the most important issue in a state but I can't figure out how Richardson picked up those 5 points on me.

Ohio



Link

Penn


Link

Reply #21 Top

Based on what you've told me though I think there's a bug.  Because your judgment sounds like it started at 0 instead of 5.

Reply #22 Top
That's what I thought.

Thank you.
Reply #23 Top
I think all custom candidates start with a 0.

If you look at the .candidate file, they have a 0 in their judgement score slot.

Two candidate files posted.

Link

Link

Reply #24 Top
Which of these are supposed to not be at zero for a custom Republican candidate?
Just wondering so I can edit my character
_BUSHADVANTAGE 0
_COMPETENCE 0
_DEMOCRATLOYALTY 0
_INDIEAPPEAL 0
_JUDGEMENT 0
_KERRYADVANTAGE 0
_MAINSTREAM 0
_NATIONALISTIC 0
_REPUBLICANLOYALTY 0
_WORLDAFFAIRSKNOWLEDGE 0
Reply #25 Top
I suspect Republicanloyalty.

But definetely judgment.

Frogboy:

I had a -5 Democraticloyalty in the files in question and won 36% of weighted score despite Richardson having a 5. He had a -5 in Republicanloyalty and won despite me having a 2 (which I think should be higher since I started at 0) and won 70% of the weighted score.

Is that a bug also?