The life cycle of a net community

Net communities are fairly predictable.  They go through various stages during their life cycle.  JoeUser is a net community too and the same things I've seen on countless other communities I see here.  What is unique about JoeUser is that it's also a blog site.  Most blog sites are isolated from one another.  Being isolated from the other blogs on a blog community has its pros and cons.  On the pro side, you have much more control over how your site is promoted.  On the con side, unless you do a lot of promotion, odds are, no one is going to read what you write.  Here on JoeUser, even the most obscure bloggers get readers. That's probably why JoeUser has become so popular so fast.

So what are the stages of a net community?

Stage 1: Arrival of the core group.  When a net community starts, it will attract a small group of regulars. This number is usually fairly specific -- under 30 people who participate heavily.  Since the new site has little traffic, this group dominates the site.

Stage 2: Community Expansion. The website begins to grow exponentially towards its eventual "maximum size".  So lots of new people arrive. The regulars, typically friendly and social able, welcome these new people to the community. Some of the regulars try to hint that these newcomers need to respect the existing pecking order and other unwritten rules that the regulars have established.

Stage 3: Melodrama. Some of the regulars, now using terms like "Old guard" or "Founders" or "Old timers" or other terms to convey that they've been part of the community for longer than others, begin to write about the lack of manners, civility, decency, etc. of many of the newcomers.  Various melodramatic posts/articles are written about how everything is falling apart.

Stage 4: Exodus. Some of the "old guard" now begin to leave in a huff. This usually includes so long winded, melodramatic post talking about how the community has gone to hell in the hand basket and how they predict that other people (like themselves) will soon leave as well.  The implication being that the original regulars are more equal than newcomers and the loss of their presence will doom the site.

Stage 5: Stabilization.  The "old guard" that remains are the ones who can adapt to the community's growth and maturity. They are the ones who recognize that they are one member amongst many. The community will have lots of activity and interest but a lot less melodrama at this point.  Occasionally, an "old timer" will drop in and bemoan how much nicer things were in the "old days" when the community had a "specific character".  The most popular users at this point will form a new set of regulars.

Communities tend to grow in a quasi-step ladder type growth curve.  So this 5 stage cycle will repeat itself several times until the community reaches its maximum growth (based on the resources of the site, subject matter, marketing, whatever).