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David St Hubbins

Join Date 04/2004

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Canadian Election Results

Well my predictions were pretty far off. Here are the final numbers:

LIB 135 36.71%
CON 99 29.61%
BQ 54 12.40%
NDP 19 15.69%
NA 1 .13%
OTH 0 5.47%

The Liberals and NDP are one vote short of a majority. Plus the Liberals may lose a vote if a Liberal is Speaker. The Conservatives and BQ can't form the required 155 seats either. So that leaves 'NA' holding the balance of power. NA is Link Chuck Cadman, a law and order guy who was elected as a Reform MP but for reasons unbeknownst to me did not run as a Conservative. The immdediate analysis is that Canada is going to get tougher on crime. I have no idea how this thing is going to shake down.

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My understanding is that Chuck Cadman wanted to run as a Conservative but lost the nomination in one of those situations where a large recruiting drive in a riding's ethnic communities floods the local party membership. I wouldn't be surprised to see him joining the Conservative caucus or at least voting with them most of the time.

The way I see this playing out is that Martin will rely on support from either the Conservatives or the NDP/Bloc on an issue-by-issue basis for a couple of years until the polls indicate he has a shot a majority or the Tories, Bloc and NDP all smell blood and vote together to bring him down. He'll probably push ahead with his plan to hold more free votes in the Commons. Nobody will want to be seen as responsible for forcing another election for the next couple of years unless Martin messes up badly, so I think he's safe for a while. Any bye-elections over the next couple of years should be interesting.

Not a bad outcome from my point of view although my ideal would have been a Conservative majority. The Bloc isn't in the commanding position everyone was expecting it to be in; nor does the NDP hold the balance of power, so not as much temptation for Martin to pull in elements of the NDP platform to guarantee their support (heaven forbid we get proportional representation foisted on us and have to deal with this kind of wobbly result every election); if we're going to have a minority government I'd much rather it be stable than otherwise, and the Liberals were always in a better position to form a stable minority than the Conservatives; the Conservatives are definitely back as an alternative government, something we didn't have through the Chretien years (and we suffered from the lack of it); and the Liberals got a big slap from the voters to at least let them know they can't run Canada like a one-party state.

I was disappointed by how poorly the Conservatives did in the suburban areas around Toronto. I felt sure they'd be picking up ridings like Markham-Unionville and Mississauga South. I'm hoping this will motivate them to lay out policies more consistent with traditional eastern Canadian-style tory conservatism rather than retreating back into the west.

Hmm, hope you don't mind the lengthy comment. Turns out I had more to say than I initially thought.

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I guess we have to remember that the Conservative party has only existed for a matter of months and Harper became leader only 2 months before the election. I don't think they've had time to put together a strong bunch of candidates nationally. Next time around, and hopefully that won't be too long, the Conservatives will have a stronger base to build from. It's just funny how close the election was. Martin has been inept as leader and I expect him to do a shitty job as PM, so I don't expect him to win the next election.

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What's BQ?

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BQ - Bloc Quebecois - A party which only runs for office in that province's 75 seats. Their agenda is to separate from Canada. However, virtually all commentators agree that this wasn't a "vote for separtism" as a vote against the incumbant Liberal government.

JW

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I think the big winner has got to be seen as the Green Party, with something just south of 5% of the vote. Bodes well for them next election - which I expect to see within 12 months. Of course the Liberals come back from the dead has to be seen - all things considered - as a win.

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