Terpfan predicts...

When it comes down to Texas and Ohio for Hillary...

Here's my Johnny Carson style Carnac the Magnificent prediction for how things will come down when the primary season moves to Texas and Ohio with Hillary's political future all staked on the outcome.

Hillary will lose in Ohio, but most likely squeak out a win in Texas.

Why?

Well, while I wish I could say this nation has moved past race being an issue in politics, I still fear and suspect that race will be an issue in Texas and Obama may not be able to get the votes he needs, or enough of the votes he would need, to win Texas over Hillary. I could be wrong, but I don't think I am. I expect she'll pull out a victory there.

In Ohio? I expect that rust-belt style distant neighbor to Illinois to fall Obama's way which may pretty much end Hillary's race then and there.

Between now and those races there are 3 more races likely to go Obama's way (at least 3 by what I've seen) and momentum can be a pretty powerful thing once it gets going. Which is again part of why I expect Obama will win in Ohio.

I could be wrong, but I'll go on the record now with the prediction that Ohio and Texas are a split as I've said here.

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Island Dog

Join Date 06/2003

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Well, while I wish I could say this nation has moved past race being an issue in politics, I still fear and suspect that race will be an issue

Gender and race are the main reasons either of them have gotten this far.

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It may be race, but not for the reasons most think. Texas is heavily Hispanic, and so far, they are going overwhelmingly Hillary. But even a loss in Ohio is not going to derail her. WHy?

There are over 900 "Super Delegates", and so far only a third have pledged. That leaves 600, or 30% of the total needed to win, left to decide. Even if Obama wins out, he is not going to get the 2100 odd delegates he needs to clinch.

And there are the florida and Michigan Delegates. Already, Hillary toadies are making noise to seat them, even though the DNC said it would not (due to the timing of the primary). But since she won both - even after pledging not to campaign (Can we say Liar anyone? I knew you could).

This one is going to the convenction. If Obama were to Win out (that includes Texas), it would be almost impossible for Hillary to steal this one. But since he probably will not, it is going to get down and dirty.

So pass the popcorn and let's enjoy the show!

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