Horse Race

Ipsos-Reid Poll

from JoeUser Forums

Horse Race:

Good:

"A new Ipsos-Reid poll, conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV this week, showed the Liberals falling four percentage points to 35 per cent..."

Better:

"The Ipsos-Reid poll also shows the New Democratic Party, not the Conservatives, picking up the support that the Liberals are losing...."

Best:

"The Liberal strategy of painting Conservative Leader Stephen Harper as scary is ineffective because respondents do not think he will become prime minister."

The threat of a Stephen Harper government remains improbable, if not implausible. Left-leaning Liberals won't be hiding behind Paul Martin skirt, as they did four years ago.

People want a change. As long as Harper runs behind the government, they'll consider the NDP.

Certainly we'll still have to persuade them, but at least they're open to persuasion. Momentum in national and regional polls seems to be with us; though, I think there's a better leading indicator than that.

Here in Ottawa-Centre it's hard not to find Liberals hoping that their own party is reduced to minority government. It's not just the trufing of Jean Chrétien. It's not just the treatment of Sheila Copps. And it's not just the local candidacy of Ed Broadbent either -- though that certainly has reminded people of what it's like to have politicians that stand up for what they believe in.

No, it's nothing more than that the Martin Liberals are the Martin Liberals. That is to say, that they're conservative.

If it were just a matter internal squabbles, Martin's ascension might only have translated into a few less volunteers, a little less money. But that the Liberal schism is based as much on the ideological as on the personal makes it far more dangerous.

Inner Party members are the most partisan and perceptive. That so many have rejected not only Martin, but his ideas, doesn't bode well heading into an election -- when everyone else will start paying attention.
politics
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