Strategic Influence in CT Efforts

Winning hearts and minds

‘Strategic influence’ is frequently viewed as a key component of foreign policy efforts against terrorist groups. Strategic influence is the ability to engage dissenters in a meaningful way in order to change thinking. In a counterterrorism context, many enemies are in need of some meaningful engagement. Strategic influencers are those who effectively use persuasion to bring about conformity, compliance, or conversion. According to Cragin and Gehwehr,

an influence campaign uses planned operations -- covert
and/or overt -- to convey selected information and
indicators to foreign audiences. Such campaigns attempt
to influence the perceptions, cognitions, and behavior of
foreign governments, organizations, groups, and individuals.
The purpose of psychological operations is to induce or
reinforce foreign behavior favorable to the originator's
overall political and strategic objectives (14).

What comprises an effective influence campaign? Keys include sufficient inducement, few or no obstacles to obedience, and a simple set of instructions for the audience to follow (16). To gain conformity among a populace, the rebellious elements must be presented with a rational, realistic alternative -- preferably in the form of a social group that exhibits desired conformist traits. Such peer pressure can have a strong positive effect on the target audience: "the greater the unanimity of the peer group, the greater the influence on an individual’s behavior" (17).

How to put this into practice? Media is the greatest influencer, for both positive and negative. News, television, radio, and newspapers have been used to influence by US and foreign policymakers during both war and peace. For all the recent criticisms of American 'soft' foreign policy, the US has been surprisingly effective in influence campaigns. During the Cold War, American support for anti-Communist propaganda led to the shaping of the political and social climate underlying the fall of Communism itself. According to Cragin and Gehwehr,

Instead of relying exclusively on external messages
produced by media outlets, such as the Voice of
America, the U.S. government also provided support
to local, clandestine, dissident media enterprises —
termed samizdat. One of these enterprises was the Polish
Underground, which printed dissident books, newspapers,
and pamphlets off small presses hidden throughout urban
areas. By supporting the samizdat, the U.S. government
could advance its anticommunist message without the
liability of the message being perceived as coming from
an untrustworthy outsider. These campaigns appear to
have been successful. Indeed, many key figures in the
history of the Cold War — Vaclav Havel, Lech Walesa,
Mikhail Gorbachev, and Lennard Meri — credit covert
support for dissident causes as a major contributor to the
eventual failure of the communist movement (33).

So how to apply this information to the War on Terror? Understanding our enemies and why they want to kill us is the first step. Then, based on that information, show the potential suicide bomber that there is more to life than death for Allah. As appealing as 'glorious martyrdom' may be, these people must be shown an alternative. By utilizing peer groups, news media, entertainment, and other influences, the West can use its appealing soft power to change the hearts and minds of those who would destroy our way of life.

Source:
Cragin, Kim and Gerwehr, Scott. "Dissuading Terror: Strategic Influence and the Struggle Against Terrorism." RAND Corporation, 2005. Internet: Link, accessed 22 June 2007.

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The challenge is finding the right way to exert our strategic influence over terrorists.

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The problem here is that for many recruits of the jihad there is no life outside of martyrdom. In any societal structure where polygamy is widespread and the rich end up taking the majority of available females there inevitably are numbers of males without prospects for marriage or even dating (in repressive societies).

A sexless male in an economically depressed area ends up with precious little to look forward to in this life. Jihadist leaders have been preying on this segment of society (while simultaneously promoting the rules that allow the segment to grow) for many years.

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Yep. this is partially why the whole culture has to go.

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