My guess:
Bloc Quebequois: 57
NDP 19
Conservative 114
Liberal 117
Green/Ind 1
What happens next is anyone's guess. The Liberals, as governing party, get first crack at being asked to form a government, even in a minority position. The key equation is 117 + 19 does not equal a majority, so that rules out a Lib - NDP coalition that could function as a majority. The Bloc hold the balance of power, I can't see them making a formal deal with anyone but they are pretty left wing so that would favour the Liberals.
If the Conservatives win more seats, the Liberals still get first crack. TheLiberals may decline to form a government if asked by the Governor General if they sense they will be defeated in the fall throne speech. If the Conservatives can forge a coalition that gives them 155+ seats then they can.
Myself, I'm voting Conservative. I think it's time to boot the Liberals from power. I support lower income taxes, lower corporate taxes, less bilingualism, less power for the Supreme Court, more power for parliament, a big increase in military spending, less immigration, more free votes, a modest increase in health care, justice reform, more auditors, less corporate welfare, and an end to the federal government spending like mad. Harper has run a surprisingly solid campaign and I think would make a good PM.
