Any time I've said "X will never hold office Y" -- "X will never be Y" -- I've always been right. I'm going to go out on a limb and say: John McCain will never be the President of the United States.
There's lots of political rumbling about McCain and how he's a juggernaut and even "everyone respects him." I want to jump way out ahead of the wagon, be the lone Chinese standing in front of the tank, and warn off the Republican Party. John McCain will never be the president!
What? You want some logic to back it up? Come on! I've never been wrong! Who needs logic?
Okay, okay -- some "points to ponder."
- Despite the little love-fest going on over the "McCain juggernaut," he's not even universally respected within his own party.
- It's even worse in Arizona where some members of the GOP openly hate him. Take this blurb for a 2000 New Republic article: "John McCain's character is the basis of his national appeal. But in his home state of Arizona, which holds its primary next week, character is exactly the reason Governor Jane Hull and many other Republicans can't stand him." The super-head for the article read, "And you thought McCain was unpopular in Washington." It still holds true, and if McCain gets the nod, that little bit of information will be very damaging.
- Too much reliance on the war "hero" mythology. I swear, we're post Clinton and Bush fils but the dumb idea that America places extra importance on wartime service still pervades political thinking? Give me a break. See: Dole, Bob & Kerry, John F. (And for what it's worth, in my opinion McCain has less a claim to the war hero title than Kerry did.)
- Speaking of John Kerry... McCain's unrelenting support of Bush lately has been seen less as patriotism than a callous attempt at brown-nosing to position himself as heir apparent. (See points one and two.) One of the most damaging blows Kerry took was the perception he was insincere in his positions and would basically say or do anything he thought would win him the election. It's two years out and McCain's already picked up that perception at the national level. It can only get worse.
- Despite his regional longevity (and by that I mean the number of times he's been elected within and by the state of Arizona), McCain shows a surprising lack of political acumen. He just may be Bush's heir apparent in that they share a similar simplistic, authoritarian, "do what I say or else" style. That's one of the reasons he's made so many enemies in Arizona. If America is truly tired of the Bush way -- and I'm convinced they are -- McCain is the last thing they want.
One more time: John McCain will never be the president! Keep looking, Republicans; your prince charming is still out there.
And while we're on the subject, I'm none too sure about Giuliani either. I'm not yet willing to take the plunge and say he'll never be president, but I have serious reservations. Who knows, he may reach down deep inside, pull something out at the last minute, and surprise me. I doubt it, but I'm open to the possibility. Right now, I sincerely believe either man is a losing proposition for the GOP.