The mod has certainly grown in popularity and talent in its relatively short life span. I still remember playing Threewave CTF for Quake. Heck, I remember playing Team Fortress for GLQuake and thinking mods won't ever get any better than this. Of course, they did. Especially after the explosion of the worldwide phenomenon known as Counter-Strike, the mod community now gains almost as much notice as their original games. This trend also includes the talent behind the titles. Mod team members have found positions at major development houses do to their work.
Now that most gamers have finished Doom 3 and Half-Life 2, we can expect their mods to start gaining momentum from both the gaming and development sides. Will Counter-Strike continue to dominate in its new Source Engine format? Or is their something more on its way? In fact, based on the success of Counter-Strike, here's a better question. Will we reach a point where simply buy a game engine and then download the mods? I think the answer to this is heavily dependant on the talent and tools available. The talent seems to be growing at a huge rate. Perhaps this is based on the availability of the training and tools for nodding. Sites like 3dbuzz.com already provide video tutorials for modding UT 2004, Doom 3, and FarCry. As for the tools, most games actually come with the tools for modding the game, or they are freely available from the game developer's websites.
So, all that's left is for the talent to actually produce greater content than the initial game. With the limited number of jobs available in the game industry, and the questionable work practices in the industry, it could very well be more feasible for Joe Programmer to take a job at a Fortune 100 company and mod as a hobby. From his experience in a corporate environment and a little practice he could possibly match the skill of programmer that's been in the industry for a couple years. The same applies for 3D modelers who work in other industries. They can work less hours and make more money than their gaming industry counterparts.
The mod could very swing its way to the forefront of the gamers play list, especially, if the main title is less-than expected.
