60 Senate Seats in Sight?
Senate Democrats, who once pooh-poohed the idea of winning a 60-seat filibuster-proof majority in the fall election, are growing increasingly willing to float the possibility as November nears.
The latest evidence of Democrats' increasing optimism comes in the form of a fundraising Web video sent out by Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Chuck Schumer (N.Y.).
The fundraising appeal notes that Republicans filibustered more than 90 times during this Congress -- the most in history -- and that the 2008 cycle offers a unique chance to build a lasting Democratic majority in the Senate.
"We need your help because we have so many red states where we have a once in a generation opportunity," says Schumer in the video.
While both sides tend to use hyperbole in their fundraising pitches, it's clear that Democrats are now talking much more openly about the possibility of 60 seats.
(As regular Fix readers know, we have been intrigued by the 60-seat conundrum for some time. We declared it a "pipe dream" in the space in late 2007 and by April of this year we were setting the bar at 57 seats.)
"Our goal is to pick up as many seats as possible," said DSCC communications director Matt Miller. "The map this year includes a lot of red states, so getting to 60 would be very, very difficult, but it's not out of the question."
Is Miller right?
Let's start with the basics.
Thirty five seats -- 23 held by Republicans, 12 held by Democrats -- are up for re-election in the fall.
Of those 35 seats, the three top Senate handicappers in the business -- Charlie Cook/Jennifer Duffy and Stu Rothenberg -- consider roughly one-third truly competitive. The Cook Political Report lists 12 Republican seats and two Democratic seats in their competitive columns while Rothenberg sees 11 GOP seats and just one Democratic one as truly up for grabs.
That puts the playing field at between 12 and 14 total seats, the vast majority of which are held by Republicans.
Two open seats -- Virginia and New Mexico -- appear all but certain pick-ups for Democrats, a fact that Senate Republicans seem resigned to when they argue their best case scenario in the fall is a two seat loss.
A second tier of seats -- generally classified as toss ups by Cook and Rothenberg -- range from leaning toward Democrats slightly to true toss ups to leaning against them slightly.
Here's how we would break down each category:
Leaning toward Democrats: Alaska, New Hampshire, Colorado
True Toss Ups: Mississippi, Louisiana
Leaning toward Republicans: Minnesota, Oregon
There's no question that Democrats have strong chances to split the races in those three categories -- at worst -- and could well hold on to their only true vulnerability in Sen. Mary Landrieu's (La.) seat.
But, even if Democrats win every one of the seven races listed above they control 59 seats -- one short of the magic number.
Former NRSC Chair Elizabeth Dole (N.C.) would like to keep the Democrats under 60...by winning. (Photo by Chris Hondros/Getty Images) To take a filibuster proof majority then, Democrats must not only take care of business in Virginia and New Mexico and run the table of toss ups but they must also find a way to beat one of a handful of GOP incumbents who, at present, look solid: Sens. Mitch McConnell (Ky.), Elizabeth Dole (N.C.) and Susan Collins (Maine).
Democrats are running serious and well financed challengers in each of those races but none of the three are leading and in only one race -- Maine -- is the incumbent's edge less than 10 points, according to an aggregation of survey data provided by pollster.com.
If you extend the playing field slightly further (and some Democrats do) then you add Georgia Sen. Saxby Chambliss, Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts and Oklahoma Sen. Jim Inhofe to that longshot yet possible list. (We're not there yet although the DSCC released a poll this week that showed Chambliss in a dog fight and state Sen. Andrew Rice in Oklahoma is running a credible race with some nice looking ads.)
Seen in that light, the path to 60 is decidedly -- if not impossibly -- uphill.
Rebecca Fisher, communications director at the National Republican Senatorial Committee, threw her own bucket of cold water on the idea. "The Democrats are making the case against a 60-seat Senate for us every time they do the bidding of extreme environmentalists and union bosses," she said.
Our take: Senate Democrats will pick up a significant number of seats but still seem likely to come up short of the 60-seat barrier. A more likely best-case scenario is 57 seats or 58 seats; the latter total would give Democrats more states than at any time since 1978.
